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Post by icefisher on Jul 4, 2013 17:52:00 GMT
I don't know if you will find anybody who will dispute that Numno! After all there has been a lot of talk around here for years about the UNRELIABILITY of the temperature record. Its really good to see you finally coming around to that point of view and that you are now recognizing many of the folks questioning the temperature record are in fact credible.
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 18:34:24 GMT
numerouno: The unusual jet stream shape is only unusual if you keep the time reference very short. Sigurdur you're most welcome to show your even longer lasting and even more unusual jet stream shapes!
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 18:35:37 GMT
I don't know if you will find anybody who will dispute that Numno! After all there has been a lot of talk around here for years about the UNRELIABILITY of the temperature record. Its really good to see you finally coming around to that point of view and that you are now recognizing many of the folks questioning the temperature record are in fact credible. So you tend to agree with those that consider this one as the highest temp reliably recorded in the world?
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 4, 2013 20:30:59 GMT
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 20:39:57 GMT
The "better explanation" being 'yep, it sure is a jet stream', and 'moisture evaporated by warmth tends to rain down at other, sometimes inappropriate, places'.
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 21:26:33 GMT
Third extreme jet stream pattern of the past five weeksThis week's extreme jet stream pattern is the third time in the past five weeks that we've seen a highly amplified ridge-trough pattern that has led to extreme weather. The others: 1) The end of May and beginning of June, when the $22 billion Central European floods occurred. A high pressure ridge became stuck over northern Scandinavia, causing all-time May heat records--as high as 87°F--at stations north of the Arctic Circle in Finland. The high pressure ridge blocked low pressure systems from moving north, and a series of two low pressure systems dumped record rains over Austria and Germany, creating the highest floods ever seen on portions of the Danube River. The $22 billion price tag made it the 5th most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disaster in world history. 2) June 18 - 22, when a ridge of high pressure over Alaska broke all-time heat records in the state, with unofficial readings as high as 98°F. A low pressure system became trapped over Alberta, Canada, bringing the city of Calgary a $3 billion flood disaster. This was the most expensive flood in Canadian history, and third most expensive natural disaster of any kind for the country. The only more expensive disasters were a 1989 wildfire ($4.2 billion) and a 1977 drought ($3 billion.) .. research published this year by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in German found that extreme summertime jet stream patterns had become twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of these extreme patterns occurred in August 2002, during Central Europe's previous 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year flood. When the jet stream goes into one of these extreme configurations, it freezes in its tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the jet stream lies. The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. According to an email I received from German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the co-authors of the study, unusually extreme jet stream amplitudes likely played a role in the May - June Central European flooding event. (My bolding, corrected spelling for "Scandinavia".) wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2452
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Post by throttleup on Jul 4, 2013 21:59:34 GMT
Third extreme jet stream pattern of the past five weeks The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. Sigh... Look, I know I'm slow -- but how can the Arctic be heating up "more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet" if it's been below average for months?
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 22:07:02 GMT
The low temp in reative terms is actually a sign of the Arctic ice melting and mixing well and truly at the moment.
Most of the external energy goes towards the phase change from ice to liquid at the moment within the rotten ice. The practical result will be seen if not this season already, then the next winter.
Be prepared for the graph to linger above the green line troughout the fall and early winter.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 4, 2013 22:18:17 GMT
The low temp in reative terms is actually a sign of the Arctic ice melting and mixing well and truly at the moment. Most of the external energy goes towards the phase change from ice to liquid at the moment within the rotten ice. The practical result will be seen if not this season already, then the next winter. Be prepared for the graph to linger above the green line troughout the fall and early winter. Numerouno: I am not very certain that the temp will linger above the green line this fall and winter. I give it a 40% probability of doing so.
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 22:20:18 GMT
Compeletely random, it would be an exact 50% chance, but knowing you, you have run 1000s of hours of 'puter time on fine tuning this out.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 4, 2013 22:49:33 GMT
Compeletely random, it would be an exact 50% change, but knowing you, you have run 1000s of hours of 'puter time on fine tuning this out. Yep. The grey matter computer.
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Post by numerouno on Jul 4, 2013 23:02:00 GMT
I can see you from your avatar you are a promising candidate user for the Stetson-Harrison method.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 5, 2013 0:00:39 GMT
Numerouno, The key sentence in the link I provided was the quote from John Nielson-Gammon who I might add is no "denialist".
"It does not appear to be related to climate change"
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 5, 2013 4:21:35 GMT
I can see you from your avatar you are a promising candidate user for the Stetson-Harrison method. Yep. Smart enough to keep the computer cool so it functions well.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 5, 2013 5:54:58 GMT
I don't know if you will find anybody who will dispute that Numno!
After all there has been a lot of talk around here for years about the UNRELIABILITY of the temperature record. Its really good to see you finally coming around to that point of view and that you are now recognizing many of the folks questioning the temperature record are in fact credible. So you tend to agree with those that consider this one as the highest temp reliably recorded in the world? Numno there are a lot of credible people that don't agree with each other. I see have no reason or evidence to choose Mr. Burt's opinion over that of the many scientists that accept the 1913 record as being substantially higher temperature even with a lower angle sun. Mr Burts arguments are unsupported by him. For example, his references simply states "Too many to list. Please contact me for any specific references you would like to know." Hardly a credible article even if Mr. Burt has credibility as you claim.
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