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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 22, 2013 16:08:28 GMT
If you need more scientific papers to quote from, related to the Finnish climate, just ask. Please supply the "scientific papers" that demonstrate that there has been an increase in Finnish temps over the period of the last 10 years (2002 - 2012).
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Post by numerouno on Jun 22, 2013 16:26:29 GMT
"Please supply the "scientific papers" that demonstrate that there has been an increase in Finnish temps over the period of the last 10 years (2002 - 2012)."
Feel free to check the monthly "Ilmastokatsaus" bulletin archived at the FMI website.
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Post by magellan on Jun 22, 2013 23:24:45 GMT
"Please supply the "scientific papers" that demonstrate that there has been an increase in Finnish temps over the period of the last 10 years (2002 - 2012)." Feel free to check the monthly "Ilmastokatsaus" bulletin archived at the FMI website. You mean the website that used Rahmstorf type smoothing to hide 20+ years of no warming? Were my graphs incorrect?
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Post by numerouno on Jun 22, 2013 23:59:45 GMT
"Please supply the "scientific papers" that demonstrate that there has been an increase in Finnish temps over the period of the last 10 years (2002 - 2012)." Feel free to check the monthly "Ilmastokatsaus" bulletin archived at the FMI website. You mean the website that used Rahmstorf type smoothing to hide 20+ years of no warming? Were my graphs incorrect? For your first point, I don't know what you are talking about. Is this some short of secret handshake? And for the second point, No I don't think so. Remember, I circled the part in the study where the Finnish researchers said their results correlate 97% and 98% with other international data, your particular dataset included. I think you agree that those people did a slightly more intensive study on the Finnish climate than yourself. I suppose it is not possible for you by any means to quote the date when the all-time high temp Finnish record was broken last time? NB NB --- I'm offering giving EUR 10 (ten) to a charity of my choice if you should do so here on this thread!..and which winter issued the least number of ice reports. I admit the last point is a bit unfair for an English person, but I'll reveal the winter was 2012, see Ilmastokatsaus 5/2012. And while we're at it, at your leisure: Ilmastokatsaus 5/2013 has the latest stats on the far North: The May 2013 temps in Sodankylä and Utsjoki n Finnish Lapland. See the once-in-every-33-years event line busted through the roof, and naturally a new all time record high for a May temp as well. The deviation from the average of the years 1981-2010 for May 2013. Medeltemperaturens avvikelse fron normalvärdet. The coldest locations were "less than 2C above the average". So Magellan, if think you have not seen anything yet here, I suggest you to just open your eyes! It will be painful, but rest assured it will be more painful for you each passing day! ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=6ba8120a-8cfd-45f9-b4f5-8f149e66be33&groupId=30106
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Post by magellan on Jun 23, 2013 0:54:14 GMT
You mean the website that used Rahmstorf type smoothing to hide 20+ years of no warming? Were my graphs incorrect? For your first point, I don't know what you are talking about. Is this some short of secret handshake? And for the second point, No I don't think so. Remember, I circled the part in the study where the Finnish researchers said their results correlate 97% and 98% with other international data, your particular dataset included. I think you agree that those people did a slightly more intensive study on the Finnish climate than yourself. I suppose it is not possible for you by any means to quote the date when the all-time high temp Finnish record was broken last time? NB NB --- I'm offering giving EUR 10 (ten) to a charity of my choice if you should do so here on this thread!..and which winter issued the least number of ice reports. I admit the last point is a bit unfair for an English person, but I'll reveal the winter was 2012, see Ilmastokatsaus 5/2012. And while we're at it, at your leisure: Ilmastokatsaus 5/2013 has the latest stats on the far North: The May 2013 temps in Sodankylä and Utsjoki n Finnish Lapland. See the once-in-every-33-years event line busted through the roof, and naturally a new all time record high for a May temp as well. The deviation from the average of the years 1981-2010 for May 2013. Medeltemperaturens avvikelse fron normalvärdet. The coldest locations were "less than 2C above the average". So Magellan, if think you have not seen anything yet here, I suggest you to just open your eyes! It will be painful, but rest assured it will be more painful for you each passing day! ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=6ba8120a-8cfd-45f9-b4f5-8f149e66be33&groupId=30106They smoothed the data making it appear there was a large warming trend from 1990 forward. I'm not saying they were being deceitful, but it is not good to do and the smoothed line was bold leaving the actual data difficult to see. As a distinguished statistician has said, "don't smooth the data you hockey puck". It looked odd and as cuttydyer noted there appeared to be a cooling trend for the past decade. It certainly fooled you. I simply downloaded the GISS data (links provided) and posted the results. Apparently the Finnish researchers weren't as thorough as you think. Why didn't they use satellite data to corroborate their findings? Also, the data contains a lot of noise (huge variability) making it more difficult to isolate the signal, and as noted there appears to be a shift change around 1989. I looked at a few other stations and they have the same thing. Satellite data available here: climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?id=someone@somewhereP.S. Despite your best attempts at deflecting from the original argument (your posting of the three charts), the warming has stopped certainly for at least a decade in Finland as a whole. Cherry picking a new weather "record" is not going to change that, especially when I did a bit of checking on the UHI and land use changes affecting thermometers in Finland. Their SAT stations aren't exactly pristine examples for meteorology. I'll play your game and choose Stockholm, Sweden. It has a cooling trend since 1930. But since you brought up Sodankyla again, I thought the line graph was pretty clear. As you said FMI matches international temperature records, including GISS, look at the bar graph again. Do my eyes deceive me? Is 1938 and 1939 both not the record yearly average temperature in the Sodankyla data set? See the last bar on the right? That is the moving average for 2013. The graph below places 2013 at #14 through the month of May. You've got some catching up to do Numo if you expect 2013 to fulfill the 31 year omen. I'm just sayin' Do you go to reeducation camps in Finland if you admit being wrong on something? There is no question Finland has warmed over the course of the last 100 years, but nearly every Finland station I've checked so far has a large upward step change (similar to Alaska in 1975) in 1989-1990, then levels out and is now trending down. There also appears to be a downward step change after 1939 or so. It looks like some type of climate event triggered by Why is there a step change? Does the Finnish government have a weather control machine?
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Post by icefisher on Jun 23, 2013 3:31:19 GMT
For your first point, I don't know what you are talking about. Is this some short of secret handshake? And for the second point, No I don't think so. Remember, I circled the part in the study where the Finnish researchers said their results correlate 97% and 98% with other international data, your particular dataset included. I think you agree that those people did a slightly more intensive study on the Finnish climate than yourself. Well I guess that settles it!!! Hadcrut last 10 years has been cooling at a rate of -.425 deg C/century for the last 10 years. And Finland is highly correlated with that! You are supplying the evidence that destroys your own argument NONUM. This is disasterous to CO2 theory which was weak to begin with because of its inability to hindcast accurately. Now its proving it has no ability to forecast either. The reason should be obvious. OTOH, solar variation is an excellent hindcaster and was only criticizable on time scales low enough to be affected by ocean oscillations and effects brought about by its massive heat capacity. The oceans prevent the attribution of cause for longterm warming from being determined with certainty for as much as 40 years. We have had 350 years of warming and it tracked the sun very well when subjected to a 60 year smoothing algorithm. But 60 year smoothing algorithms can only tell you stuff about up to the mid point of the algorithm and are less effective when their tails are clipped. Solar was a far better hindcaster up until about 1980. Of course 1980 is also when the recent warming averaging 2 degrees per century started. Its also when emissions got huge too. In the 1990's it was a reasonable bet that CO2 was a culprit for warming. . . .but you had to ignore about 300 years of solar also being a good fit. We had a gentleman in here, GLC, who became convinced solar was not the cause because the climate had failed to respond in the mid-1980's to a peaking of solar activity. Here is a smoothed version of the Oulu GCRs flipped. Warming should correspond to low GCRs so here its flipped to give a natural view of peak warming from solar effects. So the only blemish on the solar longterm smoothed correlation to temperature occured post 1987 if solar was the cause warming should have continued on the longterm scale up at least till then. Here is the Hadley smoothed 10 year trends. They peak in 2002/3 about 15 years after the GCRs peaked. Its clear the delay could be ocean oscillations or ocean heat capacity issues that continued the warming for 15 years beyond the solar peak. Now since it is cooling at a rate close to what the last 150 years warmed suggests no trend in an anthropogenic effect (though it doesn't rule out an anthropogenic effect, maybe CO2, aerosols and UHI are all negating each other.) Now is the point in time that somebody points out a 10 year trend isn't long enough. Of course somebody should ask why and of course there is no answer to that other than the climate has fluctuated for 10 year periods in the past due to unknown causes. That of course might not trigger any dawning in some dimwits that the only reason one could reasonably adopt CO2 as a cause in the first place in the view of its crappy hindcasting was a lack of alternative explanations for the recent warming. Just goes to show you can always pile the bullshit high enough to convince some people of anything. OK so the length of the robust warming from 1980 to 1997 was 17 years, OK we will adopt that as the bullshit measure on the non-scientific assumption that the height of the bullshit matters. But all that is so much trying to ignore what is happening right in our face. I have bad news for CO2 warmists, ELVIS HAS LEFT THE BUILDING!Hopes for an encore are about as dead as a doornail! But I am sure history will repeat itself and we will hear reports of an ELVIS SIGHTING for generations.
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Post by numerouno on Jun 23, 2013 12:54:36 GMT
Apparently the Finnish researchers weren't as thorough as you think. Why didn't they use satellite data to corroborate their findings? Because they studied the historical land-based measurements, that is why. P.S. Despite your best attempts at deflecting from the original argument (your posting of the three charts), the warming has stopped certainly for at least a decade in Finland as a whole. Cherry picking a new weather "record" is not going to change that, especially when I did a bit of checking on the UHI and land use changes affecting thermometers in Finland. Their SAT stations aren't exactly pristine examples for meteorology. Why do you put "record" in scare quotes? Why of course, you are afraid of them, and you continue pretending nothing has happened. NB NB NB: I'm raising the stakes! Should Magellan get the date and correct value of the new national all-time Finnish record high out of his system, and consequently posts it here, I'm giving EUR 20 to a charity of my choosing!
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Post by numerouno on Jun 23, 2013 13:09:07 GMT
The beginning of the blooming data for the Bird Cherry in sub-Arctic Circle Finland 1846-2005. Finnish Forest Research Institute. toukokuu=May, kesäkuu=June, heinäkuu=July The trend for an earlier blooming is 0.85 days per year.
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Post by numerouno on Jun 23, 2013 13:54:58 GMT
Some fluctuations by unknown causes: Finnish Landrace approves:
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Post by throttleup on Jun 23, 2013 14:41:30 GMT
numerouno, your Finnish cattle seem to be enjoying their recent misfortune!
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Post by magellan on Jun 23, 2013 18:16:49 GMT
The beginning of the blooming data for the Bird Cherry in sub-Arctic Circle Finland 1846-2005. Finnish Forest Research Institute. toukokuu=May, kesäkuu=June, heinäkuu=July The trend for an earlier blooming is 0.85 days per year. So now thermometers are replaced by cherry trees. How about a link to the actual data? Scatter diagrams can be quite deceptive, and straight lines drawn through data points doesn't really say much, not that you'd ever condone such practices. The same phenomenon has been observed in Japan and Washington D.C. Did the Finnish Forest Research Institute separate urbanization from climate change affecting the bloom dates? See Numo, there really isn't much we haven't already covered here over the years. arnoldia.arboretum.harvard.edu/pdf/articles/1893.pdf
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Post by numerouno on Jun 23, 2013 19:22:47 GMT
[quote author=" magellan" arnoldia.arboretum.harvard.edu/pdf/articles/1893.pdfAs mentioned above, cherry tree flowering times have been strongly influenced by the urban heat island effect, the warming [/quote] Magellan, I hereby raise my offer to EUR 30! I could as well raise to infinity, as you denialists won't quote any fact that might harm you. You can quote the law as being first expressed on me, it seems to work surprisingly well. You can find the blooming data at least from: Holopainen et al: Plant phenological records from northern Finland since 1750 as indicators of past climates, Int Journal of Biometeorology 57: 423-455. I checked that I have that available online as you probably will not have an easy access to international online scientific libraries. By all means identify the Finnish Urban Heat Islands for me, and everyone else, that would be fun in a weird sort of way. Many others actually think this is one of the most sparsely populated areas of Europe!
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Post by numerouno on Jun 23, 2013 19:25:07 GMT
numerouno, your Finnish cattle seem to be enjoying their recent misfortune! At that picture was taken way in May, mind you. Thank you for noticing the effects of an early spring. The earliest date I can recall for dandelions to bloom anywhere. But I think Mr Magellan is eyeing them smokestacks in the background!
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Post by numerouno on Jun 23, 2013 20:06:06 GMT
Found a list of stations in Norway that broke their earlier May daytime high records in may 2013: "Rekordhet mai i nord, søkkvått i øst" www.yr.no/nyheter/1.11055204Must be either noise, or UHI.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 23, 2013 20:13:58 GMT
A combination of both Numerouno?
It is not surprising that temp records have been broken in the month of May in your area. If you had not experienced a gradual warming, now that would be surprising!
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