kaz
New Member
Posts: 22
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Post by kaz on Sept 7, 2008 12:45:09 GMT
Twawki, I live in the Hunter region and got to shiver through the low on Saturday as well. We also copped the three huge low's last year that flooded Newcastle. I have lived in Syd and Newcastle for 30 years and have never experienced low pressure systems like this before. What's your forecast for summer? I'm just wondering if I should put the jumpers away or keep them handy.
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Post by twawki on Sept 7, 2008 22:15:47 GMT
hey Kaz Im not a forecaster but do believe the sun drives our climate and as such think if the blank sun continues then it will continue to get colder. Also with the PDO switch to a cooling phase which normally lasts around 30 years theres the second cooling signal. The third cooling signal is another la nina. With the SOI in a rapidly rising its more likely another lan nina and cold. Fourthly will depend on SH volcanism - say Chaiten or the like blows big then youve got your fourth cooling signal. The fifth signal is that over the last umpteen years the SH has shown no increase in temps, so the trend already is not a warming one.
Other things to look at is if the antarctic keeps growing to record size with sea ice and the oceans and atmosphere keep cooling.
Looking at the weather maps around this time last year we started to get a proliferation of lows to the north west which kept on developing, then the monsoonal trough returned. Also we started getting lows forming on the north east coast which would move down the coast dragging moisture with them. One of these lows that went on to batter NZ was the size of Australia. So its interesting days.
What are your thoughts?
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Post by kaidaw on Sept 7, 2008 22:55:46 GMT
Just a thought, twawki, If an ice bridge develops between Hobart and Australia Senior (a.k.a. Antarctica), bring a case of Foster's as trading goods and settle in Costa Rica before the land gets expensive there. For kelken and others who have detected no change in equatorial climate, I would be willing to debate that it has been pretty much unchanged through ice ages, interglacials, Jurassic interlude, etc., since Snowball Earth. We who are at 30 degrees (N/S), some modest change of wearing apparel from era to era. Those who are at 45 degrees (N/S) or more, just two words: good luck.
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Post by twawki on Sept 8, 2008 5:52:00 GMT
Yeah I agree - I tell my Canadian friends - sell up n buy in Sydney otherwise their property could be renamed ice sheet estate!
They laughed me off in the beginning but they there's looks of consternation on their faces.
SOI continues to 'rapidly rise' 14.35 today with over 17 days in double figures
For the sun blank has become the norm.
Melbourne airport got up to just 11.9 today (almost 5c below average), Sydney to mid 17 (2.5d below average). Gee and the suns out too. How long will the AGW farce go on!
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Post by Arnost on Sept 8, 2008 12:04:08 GMT
The SOI is not the only thing to be excited about if you want Nina conditions over the boreal winter / autral summer. Over the last month ot two the sub surface in the equatorial Pacific has cooled substantially. click here for full imageAnd the trade (easterly) winds are also stronger. I suspect that eastern Australia will have yet again have a cool and wet summer...
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Post by bluebristolian on Sept 8, 2008 12:12:22 GMT
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Post by twawki on Sept 8, 2008 12:42:51 GMT
looks like things are lining up for the beginning of another la nina
yeah fairfax has editors who have been shown to be in bed with the green brigade - no surprises there - with the wash up of all the AGW rhetoric SMH, the Age etc will have shown itself to be anything but credible
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Post by twawki on Sept 8, 2008 12:50:19 GMT
The SOI is not the only thing to be excited about if you want Nina conditions over the boreal winter / autral summer. Over the last month ot two the sub surface in the equatorial Pacific has cooled substantially. click here for full imageAnd the trade (easterly) winds are also stronger. I suspect that eastern Australia will have yet again have a cool and wet summer... thnks arnost most appreciated
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Post by twawki on Sept 8, 2008 13:02:52 GMT
When the Southern Oscillation Index sustains high positive values, the Walker circulation intensifies, and the eastern Pacific cools. These changes often bring widespread rain and flooding to Australia - this phase is sometimes called anti-El Niño (or La Niña). Australia's strongest recent examples were in 1973-74 (Brisbane's worst flooding this century in January 1974) and in 1988-89 (vast areas of inland Australia had record rainfall in March 1989). www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/analclim/elnino.htmHistory of ENSO Research Sir Gilbert Walker, Director General of the Observatory in India, assumed his post in 1904, shortly after the famine resulting from the monsoon of 1899 (an El Nino year). Walker's goal was to predict the Asian monsoon fluctuations. Walker sorted through world weather records dating from just before the turn of the 20th century which described the sea level pressure swing between South America and India-Australia. He noticed that when pressure rises in the east, it usually falls in the west, and vice versa. Walker coined the term Southern Oscillation to describe the ups and downs in this east-west seesaw in southern Pacific pressure. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. In the 1960's, Jacob Bjerknes pointed out the empirical relation between the atmosphere and tropical Pacific. He also proposed a two-way coupling between the ocean and atmosphere. Bjerknes' idea developed from observations of large-scale anomalies in the atmosphere and tropical Pacific Ocean during 1957-58 (an El Nino year), the International Geophysical Year. Bjerknes observed the normal state of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at the eastern end are remarkably cold for such low latitudes. The western Pacific is very warm, there is a large SST radient along the equatorial Pacific. As a result, there is a direct thermal circulation in the atmosphere along the Pacific. The cool dry air above the cold eastern equitorial Pacific waters flows westward along the surface toward the warm west Pacific. There, the air is heated and supplied with moisture from the warm water. There is a zonal pressure gradient associated with this equtorial circulation and Bjerknes named this "Walker Circulation". Bjerknes felt that fluctuations in this circulation initiated pulses in Walker's Southern Oscillation. While the surface winds are being driven westward along the equator by the zonal SST gradient, they act to create the cold upwelling ocean water in the east. The cause of the cold eastern equitorial Pacific waters are to be found in three features of wind-driven ocean dynamics: 1. Horizontal advection. The easterly winds drive westward currents along the equitorial Pacific. 2. Equatorial upwelling. 3. Upward thermocline displcement Bjerknes refered to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific as a "chain reaction". He wrote "An intensifing Walker Circulation also provides for an increase of east-west temperature contrast that is the cause of the Walker Circulation in the first place." Bjerknes also noted that the interaction could operate in the opposite: a decrease in the equatorial easterlies diminishes the supply of upwelling cold water and the lessened east-west temperature gradient causes the Walker Circulation to slow down. He thus provided an explanation for the association of the low phase of the Southern Oscillation with El Nino as well as the association of the high phase with normal cold state of the eastern Pacific. ess.geology.ufl.edu/usra_esse/ENSO_History.html
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 8, 2008 13:03:04 GMT
This is what happens when a cause descends into pseudo-science and political argument. As I have said elsewhere even a century long-little ice-age would not shake some people's belief in Global Warming. There are several blogs already saying the same as the reference URL - this is why ' global warming' has been supplanted by ' climate change'. If anything has persuaded me of the weakness of the AGW case (in which I initially believed) it is this semantic change. Scientists do not change terms so readily. Two quotes - repeated here from the old board.... " A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point. But man's resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has a commitment to this belief, that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it; finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to his view.--Leon Festinger, When Prophecy Fails, 1956" “ I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.” Tolstoi And these quotes sum up where we are now. Will someone making money from a 'carbon cap and trade' scheme want AGW to be shown to be untrue? Will the politicians that have pushed all these extra taxes on their voters admit to being wrong? Will the protesters railing at SUVs and aircraft melt away? No. They will not admit that they were wrong even if solid proof is eventually presented. Whichever way the temperature of the planet changes this is going to be a major problem but especially if the temperature drops. The sudden requirement for energy will not be met by iced-up windmills and frozen hydroelectric schemes. Yet the AGW proponents will be protesting to stop the building of power stations even as they freeze.
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Post by twawki on Sept 9, 2008 8:45:10 GMT
Another cold night before some spring warmth Brett Dutschke, Tuesday September 9, 2008 - 14:45 EST
Tonight will be another cold one for much of southeastern Australia then days and nights will warm up to the warmest spell since April or May.
Areas of frost and fog are likely across South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales by the morning. Some places will be even colder than last night and this morning.
Last night one of the coldest spots was Cooma, where it dipped to minus nine degrees at the airport, 11 below average and its lowest September temperature in 14 years. Canberra chilled to minus 3.7 degrees, seven below average and a six year low for September.
From Wednesday northerly winds will drag some warmth from the interior to the southeast. Winds will become strong and gusty on the weekend causing temperatures to rise about five above average. For many it will be the warmest in five months.
A strong cold, showery change will move through on Sunday and Monday.
- Weatherzone
© Weatherzone 2008
Gee its only 3-4 months of freezing our #*@ off
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Post by socold on Sept 9, 2008 12:45:51 GMT
NCDC Southern Hemisphere monthly anomolies:
Jan 2008: +0.28°C Feb 2008: +0.33°C Mar 2008: +0.32°C Apr 2008: +0.29°C May 2008: +0.35°C Jun 2008: +0.35°C Jul 2008: +0.43°C
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Post by ron on Sept 9, 2008 16:14:58 GMT
NCDC Southern Hemisphere monthly anomolies: Jan 2008: +0.28°C Feb 2008: +0.33°C Mar 2008: +0.32°C Apr 2008: +0.29°C May 2008: +0.35°C Jun 2008: +0.35°C Jul 2008: +0.43°C I hate to be a nag, but would you be so kind as to make a point with the temperature anomalies you are posting? Are you saying it's warmer than 50 years ago so we should be worried?? Are you saying it's cooler than last year so we should be worried? What is the context of your post? What are you saying? Thanks!
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Post by twawki on Sept 9, 2008 22:34:22 GMT
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Post by socold on Sept 9, 2008 23:08:11 GMT
NCDC Southern Hemisphere monthly anomolies: Jan 2008: +0.28°C Feb 2008: +0.33°C Mar 2008: +0.32°C Apr 2008: +0.29°C May 2008: +0.35°C Jun 2008: +0.35°C Jul 2008: +0.43°C I hate to be a nag, but would you be so kind as to make a point with the temperature anomalies you are posting? Are you saying it's warmer than 50 years ago so we should be worried?? Are you saying it's cooler than last year so we should be worried? What is the context of your post? What are you saying? Thanks! The anomalies show that overall surface temperature each month in the Southern Hemisphere 2008 has been above average compared to the period 1901-2000, at least 0.2C above average. Just food for thought considering the title of the thread.
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