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Post by acidohm on Dec 28, 2015 16:38:16 GMT
ot at first but the changes going on over in Eurasia will eventually flip the NAO. What does he mean by this??
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2015 17:43:00 GMT
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifThe changes in pressure, placement etc will flip the NAO. This is much like the SOI, an indicator of pressure gradients. When the NAO goes negative, Europe etc get easterly winds, rather than south westerly winds. And you know what happens when that happens! I find it interesting that the 1900 article that Missouri Boy posted from the link is so very close to what is to be expected to happen. History repeating itself? Even with enhanced CO2 in the atmosphere? Can this be possible? Or in reality, is this the "normal".
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2015 17:43:53 GMT
The Pacific Northwest: Snow Capital of the U.S.
"This is probably the result of natural variability, no reason to expect it is connected with global warming. What about El Nino? Probably not at this point. We have yet to see the normal El Nino circulation changes, which generally are most profound after January 1st and certainly our recent weather in the Northwest is not El Nino-like." cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-pacific-northwest-snow-capital-of-us.html Code: I have enough snow for the rest of the winter. You can hog it all from now on as far as I am concerned.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2015 17:44:42 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Dec 28, 2015 20:58:09 GMT
Well that was not a nice boxing day!!! This was the worst flooding in the history of the Calder Valley! I came close myself ( lost the garden to the rising waters) but no cigar. In the 'record' 2012 floods ( we had two a couple of weeks apart) the river by me got to 4.85m ( this was a record high even after 20 years of assorted flood alleviation schemes being in place). On Saturday we hit 5.67m. We saw 800 more properties flooded than in the 2012 events and all from this new 'trailing front' weather we have via the cold blob off Greenland. As Nino bites harder in Jan we will see more of the same I fear. As it is we have Frank lined up for wednesday and its impacts may include raising the pole above freezing? ? That would be around 70f above average? How would that feel for you if we upped your current temp by 70f? ? The weather is broken and it will only get worse.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 28, 2015 21:49:10 GMT
Well that was not a nice boxing day!!! This was the worst flooding in the history of the Calder Valley! I came close myself ( lost the garden to the rising waters) but no cigar. In the 'record' 2012 floods ( we had two a couple of weeks apart) the river by me got to 4.85m ( this was a record high even after 20 years of assorted flood alleviation schemes being in place). On Saturday we hit 5.67m. We saw 800 more properties flooded than in the 2012 events and all from this new 'trailing front' weather we have via the cold blob off Greenland. As Nino bites harder in Jan we will see more of the same I fear. As it is we have Frank lined up for wednesday and its impacts may include raising the pole above freezing? ? That would be around 70f above average? How would that feel for you if we upped your current temp by 70f? ? The weather is broken and it will only get worse. Sorry to hear of your flooding woes GW....I hope the worst you get is a damp garden.
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Post by douglavers on Dec 28, 2015 22:00:14 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 28, 2015 22:24:52 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Dec 28, 2015 22:33:19 GMT
youtu.be/fjQchUPkSfkI'll post this here too Missouriboy....The next week or so will be very interesting for N Europe. Because of comments I have made, the wife bought warm boots in October. ...my family is looking at me and raising questions as to why when I said it was likely to be cold it is so bloody warm!!! Still, winter has barely started yet!
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 28, 2015 23:30:43 GMT
youtu.be/fjQchUPkSfkI'll post this here too Missouriboy....The next week or so will be very interesting for N Europe. Because of comments I have made, the wife bought warm boots in October. ...my family is looking at me and raising questions as to why when I said it was likely to be cold it is so bloody warm!!! Still, winter has barely started yet! Tell them you're testing their 'bloody' reflexes.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 29, 2015 11:02:33 GMT
There is a surprising coherence I have not seen before in the winds over North West Europe and UK. Go to earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-26.71,62.25,265 That should give you the surface winds with Greenland in the center of the frame now using the menu step up each displayed pressure level. Until 10HpA you will find the same pattern with a meridonal jet reaching up to the Pole - which presumably will be the cause of the SSW expected. Oh and Graywolf - had the hedging and ditching been carried out as normal you would not have got the floods. The new Environment Agency regulations based on the EU water rules ban councils from dredging and tell farmers that anything dredged from streams and rivers must be treated as 'hazardous waste'. In consequence they have succeeded in 'Making Space for Water' (google it) in your back garden. This flooding is not accidental. Thank Agenda 21 Chapter 18 as implemented by the EU and the EA.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 29, 2015 13:41:12 GMT
Well that was not a nice boxing day!!! This was the worst flooding in the history of the Calder Valley! I came close myself ( lost the garden to the rising waters) but no cigar. In the 'record' 2012 floods ( we had two a couple of weeks apart) the river by me got to 4.85m ( this was a record high even after 20 years of assorted flood alleviation schemes being in place). On Saturday we hit 5.67m. We saw 800 more properties flooded than in the 2012 events and all from this new 'trailing front' weather we have via the cold blob off Greenland. As Nino bites harder in Jan we will see more of the same I fear. As it is we have Frank lined up for wednesday and its impacts may include raising the pole above freezing? ? That would be around 70f above average? How would that feel for you if we upped your current temp by 70f? ? The weather is broken and it will only get worse. Graywolf: 1. We don't know if the temp at the pole has been 70F warmer than expected before, as there were no measurements. 2. Be careful using localized flooding as a bench mark for an event. 3. The USA has not had a flood close to the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 since 1927. www.bing.com/videos/search?q=great+mississippi+flood+of+1927&view=detail&mid=DD5DBD4087C40C5BA071DD5DBD4087C40C5BA071&FORM=VIRE3Hope you can recover your Garden. Flooding is worse than a blizzard. More folks, as a rule, die during and shortly after a blizzard. But one can push snow etc and there is not mold issues etc. I am old enough that when I was young folks talked about "Historical" events of their day. Hence, I have been told about floods, blizzards etc that young folks of today have no idea happened. Way back then, it was weather. Today it has become climate change. Man is a funny animal. Used to be weather was weather, they didn't look for someone or something to blame for the changes. Today, most are blaming themselves for events that have always occurred. Climate is not some static state of the world. It is ever changing. Man does have an influence, but is not the primary controller of climate. I wish you the very best, and hope your area has 100% recovery. It has in the past, and hopefully, that pattern is not upset.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 29, 2015 14:16:51 GMT
There is a surprising coherence I have not seen before in the winds over North West Europe and UK. Go to earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-26.71,62.25,265 That should give you the surface winds with Greenland in the center of the frame now using the menu step up each displayed pressure level. Until 10HpA you will find the same pattern with a meridonal jet reaching up to the Pole - which presumably will be the cause of the SSW expected. Oh and Graywolf - had the hedging and ditching been carried out as normal you would not have got the floods. The new Environment Agency regulations based on the EU water rules ban councils from dredging and tell farmers that anything dredged from streams and rivers must be treated as 'hazardous waste'. In consequence they have succeeded in 'Making Space for Water' (google it) in your back garden. This flooding is not accidental. Thank Agenda 21 Chapter 18 as implemented by the EU and the EA. Amazing ... low pressure sworl at each end w/ one in the center of the Arctic Ocean and the other being the Icelandic low ... and off the southeast of the sworl hangs Frank. The high pressure zone to the south has two distinct nodes and spans the entire Atlantic. Looks like Scandinavia could get some warm weather too.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 29, 2015 14:35:28 GMT
I belive East of that south wind is cold sucked from Siberia??
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 30, 2015 1:41:51 GMT
..[/quote ...)( -. )( --- )( .-- )
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