|
Post by missouriboy on Sept 6, 2016 22:05:56 GMT
Northern Ireland just had it's warmest September night ever per BBC news. Do you believe the source Birder?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 6, 2016 22:56:53 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 6, 2016 23:17:10 GMT
I don't want an 88 winter.
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Sept 6, 2016 23:23:22 GMT
As much as I want a cold Winter one cold Winter doesn't validate global cooling anything anymore than one warm summer validates global warming. Correct, but the burden of proof should be on the warmists side. They are the ones involving us in foolish treaties and shutting down much needed power plants. They are the ones demanding expensive changes.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Sept 6, 2016 23:26:56 GMT
I don't want an 88 winter. Me neither ... and I've got 10 degrees of latitude on you.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Sept 6, 2016 23:40:50 GMT
As much as I want a cold Winter one cold Winter doesn't validate global cooling anything anymore than one warm summer validates global warming. Absolutely ... all the true cold climate periods come with multiple colder than normal winters, later springs, shorter and cooler summers ... early and late frosts. All the really bad stuff. I hope we avoid that ... but my gut tells me we won't. The cycles will have their pound of flesh ... and all the ducks seem to be lining up. Maybe it will just be like the 60s? ?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 7, 2016 0:22:29 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 7, 2016 0:24:47 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 7, 2016 0:26:11 GMT
In FACT, I don't want global cooling at all!!!!!!
I would love for it to be another 1.0-2.0C warmer. IF paleo is accurate, another 2.0C will be like living in a golden age!
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 7, 2016 0:28:52 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Sept 7, 2016 0:59:37 GMT
So, coldest in the contiguous! That's forking cold!
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Sept 7, 2016 1:35:51 GMT
So, coldest in the contiguous! That's forking cold! Hence the mid-western colloquial phase ... "You're forked".
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Sept 7, 2016 1:51:18 GMT
That occurred at almost the exact bottom of the geomagnetic AP trough between the two halves of the Grand Maximum.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Sept 7, 2016 1:51:34 GMT
I have no idea whats going to happen. Seems to be a tiny little bit of historical pattern of there being 3 diminishing solar cycles, if you want to call it happening twice, once every hundred years a pattern. Really weak observation support for a pattern if it is one at all.
And who can predict solar cycles? NOAA finally got on board with a reasonably accurate forecast of Solarcycle 24 pretty much though not until it started. They would like to forget earlier predictions. . . .like the ones they did about now in Cycle 23. The science pundits are out with predictions for a cycle at least as strong as 24 and perhaps stronger. Which if so would represent a small break with the previous two times, the Dalton Minimum and the early late 19th and early 20th century minimums where the third cycle in the series was the smallest.
Also in playing with the numbers and matching solar activity to temperature change it seems that the solar cycle exerts strong forces on the climate. It seems in some way to influence ENSO with strong minimums appearing to favor La Nina development and strong El Ninos appear to favor just after the minimum La Nina and around the solar max. But the data sets for ENSO are probably slanted toward the positive PDO perhaps simply because of how long its been monitored and how much of the old stuff was modeled instead of observed. Then if you actually like patterns for predictions, the pattern would suggest still 100 to 200 years more of solar grand maximum activity with the current pause simply a hiccup. I guess we will see. Astromet is out there with his decades of cooling, NOAA with its decades of warming. At least we should find out who was right even if somebody winning still doesn't tell us what the heck is happening or what will happen. As Akasofu and Curry keep pressing on learning more about natural variation. If it warms we will still not know why, if it cools we will still not know if natural variation simply overrode anthropogenic or by how much.
The only people who will be sure about those answers are the politically inclined.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 7, 2016 2:07:12 GMT
I have no idea whats going to happen. Seems to be a tiny little bit of historical pattern of there being 3 diminishing solar cycles, if you want to call it happening twice, once every hundred years a pattern. Really weak observation support for a pattern if it is one at all. And who can predict solar cycles? NOAA finally got on board with a reasonably accurate forecast of Solarcycle 24 pretty much though not until it started. They would like to forget earlier predictions. . . .like the ones they did about now in Cycle 23. The science pundits are out with predictions for a cycle at least as strong as 24 and perhaps stronger. Which if so would represent a small break with the previous two times, the Dalton Minimum and the early late 19th and early 20th century minimums where the third cycle in the series was the smallest. Also in playing with the numbers and matching solar activity to temperature change it seems that the solar cycle exerts strong forces on the climate. It seems in some way to influence ENSO with strong minimums appearing to favor La Nina development and strong El Ninos appear to favor just after the minimum La Nina and around the solar max. But the data sets for ENSO are probably slanted toward the positive PDO perhaps simply because of how long its been monitored and how much of the old stuff was modeled instead of observed. Then if you actually like patterns for predictions, the pattern would suggest still 100 to 200 years more of solar grand maximum activity with the current pause simply a hiccup. I guess we will see. Astromet is out there with his decades of cooling, NOAA with its decades of warming. At least we should find out who was right even if somebody winning still doesn't tell us what the heck is happening or what will happen. As Akasofu and Curry keep pressing on learning more about natural variation. If it warms we will still not know why, if it cools we will still not know if natural variation simply overrode anthropogenic or by how much. The only people who will be sure about those answers are the politically inclined. Well, I've out-forecasted NOAA and many other climate centers Icefisher and my forecasts are not guesswork. I've been forecasting the arrival of global cooling in 2017 for well over a decade now and nothing has changed. Waiting for someone to be 'right' also is not a plan, as astronomic forecasting based on the Sun and the planets isn't guesswork, but very much a proven science. Patterns do not 'predict' though, but again, the Sun is going to enter a quiescent phase, and the science is proven that it is the Sun that governs the Earth's climate. We've already addressed the ENSO problem, as NOAA has *never* forecasted one in advance. I have and continue to state that ENSO is a decadal climate event. The next El Nino will be in 2019, followed by a powerful La Nina that will take place under the new climate regime of global cooling. Lastly, there is no such thing as 'anthropogenic global warming,' so natural variations cannot override something that simply does not exist.
|
|