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Post by missouriboy on Jul 30, 2020 6:41:27 GMT
I did a test play with meteociel which allows one to grab an annimated gif. Their coverage options include pressures and anomalies at 500 hPa. Unfortunately, there online archives, which they show going back to 2007, are really only available from several years later. The 2 gifs below are pressure anomalies for 6 to 192 hours on January 15 and January 29, 2018. An analysis of pressure systems via wetterzentral which goes back to mid 1800 is likely the best decent picture on jet behaviour?? Thanks. That is a very good site. Lot of work to get a useable timeseries though. Getting lazy in my old age.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 30, 2020 10:09:01 GMT
[ Snip ] Getting lazy in my old age. I didn't wait ....
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Post by acidohm on Jul 30, 2020 18:37:57 GMT
An analysis of pressure systems via wetterzentral which goes back to mid 1800 is likely the best decent picture on jet behaviour?? Thanks. That is a very good site. Lot of work to get a useable timeseries though. Getting lazy in my old age. Or....in same time frame, analogues, mentioned this too you before? I forget the site atm but it would also be labour intensive, ie, finding average synoptics over given seasons....
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 31, 2020 1:43:24 GMT
Anybody believe this based on six decades of mostly strong solar cycles? North Atlantic climate far more predictable following major scientific breakthroughPublished in Nature, the study analysed six decades of climate model data and suggests decadal variations in North Atlantic atmospheric pressure patterns (known as the North Atlantic Oscillation) are highly predictable, enabling advanced warning of whether winters in the coming decade are likely to be stormy, warm and wet or calm, cold and dry. wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/30/north-atlantic-climate-far-more-predictable-following-major-scientific-breakthrough/
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Post by acidohm on Aug 1, 2020 10:13:14 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 1, 2020 12:20:21 GMT
There should be an accumulation of outlying statistical events over large areas of the southern hemisphere if this is more than a one-off winter. Remembering that the southern hemisphere is only 19% land and we are at solar minimum. Patagonia really sticks down there. Accumulations of reporters are directly proportional to the perceived magnitude of a "clickable" event modified by political persuasion.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 1, 2020 12:43:37 GMT
There should be an accumulation of outlying statistical events over large areas of the southern hemisphere if this is more than a one-off winter. Remembering that the southern hemisphere is only 19% land and we are at solar minimum. Patagonia really sticks down there. Accumulations of reporters are directly proportional to the perceived magnitude of a "clickable" event modified by political persuasion. And as you all will know a fairly sizeable chunk of southern Patagonia is an old Welsh colony so they should not be taken aback by snow
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 1, 2020 13:07:06 GMT
There should be an accumulation of outlying statistical events over large areas of the southern hemisphere if this is more than a one-off winter. Remembering that the southern hemisphere is only 19% land and we are at solar minimum. Patagonia really sticks down there. Accumulations of reporters are directly proportional to the perceived magnitude of a "clickable" event modified by political persuasion. And as you all will know a fairly sizeable chunk of southern Patagonia is an old Welsh colony so they should not be taken aback by snow I did NOT know that. Deficiency in the quality of my education no doubt.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 1, 2020 13:17:24 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 1, 2020 15:01:12 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 3, 2020 11:37:15 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Aug 3, 2020 23:16:55 GMT
Snowing in Ballaratt and the hills near Melbourne today.
Apart from a hard lock-down, even more reason to stay home, sadly.
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Post by douglavers on Aug 4, 2020 11:55:49 GMT
We discovered it actually snowed [and settled a bit] in some Melbourne suburbs.
I have lived here for nearly 4 decades, but do not remember seeing that before now.
Global Warming in action?
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Post by Ratty on Aug 4, 2020 12:16:58 GMT
We discovered it actually snowed [and settled a bit] in some Melbourne suburbs. I have lived here for nearly 4 decades, but do not remember seeing that before now. Global Warming in action? I watched snow fall from the Officers' Mess at RAAF Frognall, 54 Mont Albert Road, Canterbury in 1969.
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Post by douglavers on Aug 4, 2020 12:25:47 GMT
Mont Albert Rd is about a km from where I live, Ratty.
Before my time in Oz!!
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