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Post by Ratty on Aug 4, 2020 13:35:00 GMT
Mont Albert Rd is about a km from where I live, Ratty. Before my time in Oz!! We know where you live! Time to pay up.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2020 20:45:18 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 5, 2020 7:46:02 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Aug 5, 2020 9:43:35 GMT
TBH im past giving verdicts.
I don't think our feeble brains can really comprehend the massive and multiple wheels of chaotic processes that turn to produce our weather.
Mostly we just havnt been observing this stuff for long enough and data cant link processes which often extend to 20+ year time frames as good data before, say, 50 years ago doesn't exist for many processes.
IF we are on a brink of a shift however, stuff like that which piekko produces may well have been good indicators.
Right now, we just can't say with much certainty.
If winter 21/22 is boring i might just buy a drone and do that rather than trawl the internet for climate stuff....its been 6 years now and I've never found a reliable forecast beyond 4 days.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 6, 2020 6:09:23 GMT
TBH im past giving verdicts. I don't think our feeble brains can really comprehend the massive and multiple wheels of chaotic processes that turn to produce our weather.Definitely correct about that.Mostly we just havnt been observing this stuff for long enough and data cant link processes which often extend to 20+ year time frames as good data before, say, 50 years ago doesn't exist for many processes. IF we are on a brink of a shift however, stuff like that which piekko produces may well have been good indicators. Right now, we just can't say with much certainty. If winter 21/22 is boring i might just buy a drone and do that rather than trawl the internet for climate stuff....its been 6 years now and I've never found a reliable forecast beyond 4 days. That's a little unfair; I think there are occasional flukes out to four days.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 6, 2020 22:28:32 GMT
Game time coming up for Theo's prediction. If Winter 21.22 is just another La Nina and nothing special well then That's what im waiting to see....only 16 months of life to pass to verify 😄
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 6, 2020 23:30:28 GMT
the SOI is playing ball but a temperature drop of 0.3C will not do it for me it needs to be 0.5C or bigger. For the CAGW to be disassembled I think it needs to be a 0.6C drop for 2 years or more with some scary excess winter deaths in Europe due to frozen turbines and gas shortages. It could make Covid look like the good times. Those electrical grids are vulnerable to intermittency. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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Post by douglavers on Aug 7, 2020 9:52:25 GMT
It snowed in the Flinders Ranges today, first time in 40 years apparently.
For the geographically challenged, the Ranges are about 500 kms North of Adelaide.
Mildura was approximately 8degC below its normal temperature for this time of year.
A spot in Tasmania registered the lowest temperature ever recorded in the State [-14degC].
Let me see:
Worst winter in decades in South America Bitter cold in South Africa Snow in July in lowish Northern China Coldest July ever [?] in Norway Ditto Netherlands
It is interesting when all the straws point in the same direction.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 7, 2020 16:13:38 GMT
It snowed in the Flinders Ranges today, first time in 40 years apparently. For the geographically challenged, the Ranges are about 500 kms North of Adelaide. Mildura was approximately 8degC below its normal temperature for this time of year. A spot in Tasmania registered the lowest temperature ever recorded in the State [-14degC]. Let me see: Worst winter in decades in South America Bitter cold in South Africa Snow in July in lowish Northern China Coldest July ever [?] in Norway Ditto Netherlands It is interesting when all the straws point in the same direction. Wait a little bit and see what changes in Europe. Scandinavia possibly going to get a blast of heat, UK just achieved hottest August day since 2003 at an airport....no prizes for guessing which one. Jet very wavy up this way so weather changes from one extreme to another quite quickly.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 8, 2020 3:37:36 GMT
It snowed in the Flinders Ranges today, first time in 40 years apparently. For the geographically challenged, the Ranges are about 500 kms North of Adelaide. Mildura was approximately 8degC below its normal temperature for this time of year. A spot in Tasmania registered the lowest temperature ever recorded in the State [-14degC]. Let me see: Worst winter in decades in South America Bitter cold in South Africa Snow in July in lowish Northern China Coldest July ever [?] in Norway Ditto Netherlands It is interesting when all the straws point in the same direction. Twenty feet of snow in New York City??? As the last actual taxpayer flees the city. Wavy jet or not, that would be better than reruns of Gilligan's Island. Although I would miss Mary Ann.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 8, 2020 3:53:10 GMT
Game time coming up for Theo's prediction. If Winter 21.22 is just another La Nina and nothing special well then That's what im waiting to see....only 16 months of life to pass to verify 😄 That's just for show. Sharp drops make news ... but incremental accumulations of smaller drops over months and years make history in bad ways. Climate change is when you remember your father or grandfather telling you how he used to wear shorts and teeshirts into the fields in April AND YOU are wearing parkas and all the wool you can find.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 8, 2020 6:09:04 GMT
That's what im waiting to see....only 16 months of life to pass to verify 😄 That's just for show. Sharp drops make news ... but incremental accumulations of smaller drops over months and years make history in bad ways. Climate change is when you remember your father or grandfather telling you how he used to wear shorts and teeshirts into the fields in April AND YOU are wearing parkas and all the wool you can find. Still waiting for info on historic jet activity missouri, hes a farmer and apparently flat out atm... All i can find is proxy data for NAO....
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 8, 2020 12:36:53 GMT
That's just for show. Sharp drops make news ... but incremental accumulations of smaller drops over months and years make history in bad ways. Climate change is when you remember your father or grandfather telling you how he used to wear shorts and teeshirts into the fields in April AND YOU are wearing parkas and all the wool you can find. Still waiting for info on historic jet activity missouri, hes a farmer and apparently flat out atm... All i can find is proxy data for NAO.... The history we have is only a two location triangular surface pressure link from Gibraltar and the Azores back to Iceland. An area where the jet goes meridional between the sub-tropics and the pole. Likely many other north-south paths never recorded for more than 40+ years. Even these don't get to the heart of the Dalton. But lately, the "swing has gotten larger seemingly in sync with solar cycles. The pressure changes are small and the metric amplifies them (does greater precision make bigger waves?). People talk winter NAO ... but what about that summer swing? Would anyone be willing to bet that the near-term future DOES NOT look a lot like 2009-10 or lower? Interesting that everything seems to be falling apart at the same time. Anecdotal no doubt. The prudent forecasters have at least 20 futures they can point too and say ... SEE! The "CROOKS" will claim they knew it all along. A positive NAO means that the "normalized" pressure metric for the sub-tropic station is higher than that at Iceland. Thus the sub-tropic value minus the Iceland value equals a positive number and vice versa. Some genius figured that out.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 8, 2020 14:18:17 GMT
Still waiting for info on historic jet activity missouri, hes a farmer and apparently flat out atm... All i can find is proxy data for NAO.... The history we have is only a two location triangular surface pressure link from Gibraltar and the Azores back to Iceland. An area where the jet goes meridional between the sub-tropics and the pole. Likely many other north-south paths never recorded for more than 40+ years. Even these don't get to the heart of the Dalton. But lately, the "swing has gotten larger seemingly in sync with solar cycles. The pressure changes are small and the metric amplifies them (does greater precision make bigger waves?). People talk winter NAO ... but what about that summer swing? Would anyone be willing to bet that the near-term future DOES NOT look a lot like 2009-10 or lower? Interesting that everything seems to be falling apart at the same time. Anecdotal no doubt. The prudent forecasters have at least 20 futures they can point too and say ... SEE! The "CROOKS" will claim they knew it all along. A positive NAO means that the "normalized" pressure metric for the sub-tropic station is higher than that at Iceland. Thus the sub-tropic value minus the Iceland value equals a positive number and vice versa. Some genius figured that out. It could be that the system is flipping to a different 'strange attractor'
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Post by acidohm on Aug 8, 2020 18:50:33 GMT
Indeed Naut, i ponder what would happen if the prefered route for the jet would be at the southerly extent of current loops....that would effectively make the ferrel cell a polar influenced mechanism....
However, Missouri, I'm sure theres no data to suggest this is a "thing".
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