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Post by glennkoks on May 26, 2020 12:39:22 GMT
Unfortunately like most things nowadays Covid19 has become political. When that happens critical thinking becomes harder for most people. News media outlets all have an agenda and cater to demographics and target markets in the quest for advertising dollars. So they all have a monetary interest in "clicks" and views.
I live in the suburbs of the fourth largest city in the U.S. I am pretty active in my community and my social media footprint is pretty large. Yet I don't know anyone who has contracted Covid19. I know of very few people who directly know someone who has contracted the virus.
I do not doubt it's existence. But I have serious reservations on our response to it. Playing monday morning quarterback is easy so I do not criticize our Government's initial response to it. It was a novel virus and most of the information we had to make decisions on was based on data out of China. We clearly erred on the side of caution.
But that was several months ago. Now, with what we have learned it is clear that we overreacted to this threat. It's time to open this back up and move on...
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Post by Ratty on May 26, 2020 12:53:18 GMT
Unfortunately like most things nowadays Covid19 has become political. When that happens critical thinking becomes harder for most people. News media outlets all have an agenda and cater to demographics and target markets in the quest for advertising dollars. So they all have a monetary interest in "clicks" and views. I live in the suburbs of the fourth largest city in the U.S. I am pretty active in my community and my social media footprint is pretty large. Yet I don't know anyone who has contracted Covid19. I know of very few people who directly know someone who has contracted the virus. I'm in the third largest city in Australia also with a fair social footprint and personally know of nobody who has succumbed.I do not doubt it's existence. But I have serious reservations on our response to it. Playing monday morning quarterback is easy so I do not criticize our Government's initial response to it. It was a novel virus and most of the information we had to make decisions on was based on data out of China. We clearly erred on the side of caution. But that was several months ago. Now, with what we have learned it is clear that we overreacted to this threat. It's time to open this back up and move on... Zachary Glenn. Same applies here and tentative moves have been/are being made. 'Opening up will be harder than closing down'Opportunities to change our adversarial systems (politics, workplace relations, etc) abound but .....
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Post by nautonnier on May 26, 2020 15:47:09 GMT
"Developing a vaccine for the coronavirus could prove difficult due to the declining number of infections, researchers in Britain have warned.
Reports that Oxford was proceeding to the second stage of human trials for its coronavirus vaccine, which would see the number of participants rise to 10,000 people, were met with optimism. Oxford’s Jenner Institute is working with drug company Astra Zeneca to develop a vaccine.
The government projected that the vaccine, if successful, could deliver 30 million doses by September. However, scientists involved with the study have given interviews with separate London-based newspapers warning that initial projections may prove to be optimistic.
The main issue, they say, is that the virus may be disappearing too fast for the studies to produce “meaningful results.” "www.foxnews.com/world/uk-researchers-warn-of-only-50-percent-success-for-covid-vaccine-trialAs I have said before the race is to develop a vaccine before the SARS-CoV-2 virus is unable to find anyone with sufficiently poor innate immunity - it's got to them all.
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Post by glennkoks on May 26, 2020 16:09:23 GMT
What you both say is true, yet I live just outside the greatest city on earth, Seattle. My wife is a critical care nurse and I have listened to her first person accounts many, many times. I believe even if I don't see. Code, I believe as well. I do not think it is a conspiracy. And had this happened one year ago when my son was going through his last round of chemo I would be a nervous wreck and in lockdown mode as well. But my son would be in quarantine mode as well as either myself or my wife. Not the entire nation. It's hard to put a value and have a balance between protecting human life and wiping out an economy. I am no expert on the Coronavirus, nor do I see the damage everyday. But it seems to me the elderly and immunocompromised are suffering the most from this disease and the mortality on the healthy is very low. It seems much more practical to quarantine the most vulnerable while the rest of us practice the best common sense social distancing practices that we can while we continue on with our lives.
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Post by nautonnier on May 26, 2020 19:56:57 GMT
This fits with all the reports on the internet that I can find I don't believe it is a biological weapon - it does not have the controllability that you need for a bio-weapon. As a way of forcing the world to buy your vaccine however, it is ideal. "No known animal host and 'almost perfect' human adaption: Top Australian vaccine scientist reveals how COVID-19's unique structure means it's either man-made - or a 'complete fluke' of nature
Professor Nikolai Petrovsky said virus was better at attaching itself to human cells than to any other animal It is so 'perfectly adapted' to infect humans that the possibility it was made in a Chinese lab can't be ignored Wuhan Institute of Virology studied bat coronaviruses and is theorised to have accidentally leaked COVID-19 Virus could have been formed naturally by mixing bat and pangolin versions, but this is statistically unlikely Professor Petrovsky said the inquiry into virus origins needed urgently and should have started months ago"www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8356751/How-COVID-19s-unique-structure-means-man-made.html
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Post by duwayne on May 27, 2020 19:12:50 GMT
My wife and I are breaking the Australian rule of staying within a 150 mile radius of home tomorrow when we will drive 2,000 miles from our winter home in Arizona to our summer home in Ohio.
Before we leave I thought I’d look at my May 31 projection of coronavirus cases made on May 1.
There were 36,000 new C-19 cases on May 1. The Spread Rate average for the preceding 5 days was 11.2%. Using the 11.2% number I projected the number of cases on May 31 would be 13,000 cases. It appears the actual number will be about 17,000 cases. This is a substantial reduction from May 1. But during May the Spread Rates on Thursday and Friday of each week have been quite high compared to the other 5 days.
Going forward I’m going to use 7-day averages to better smooth out the effect of the daily fluctuations.
The 7-Day average number of cases on May 31 will be about 21,000. This is higher than the 17,000 cases projected for the single day of May 31 because of the Thursday/Friday effect and because cases are declining overall so averaging in numbers from previous days will give a higher number.
I predict the 7-Day average cases on June 30 will be down to 15,000 cases a day, a drop of 6,000 from the May 31. I always was careful in the past to say these forecasts based on Spread Rates were projections, not predictions. Now I’m confident enough to call this a prediction.
If the US stays on the current path, it’s conceivable that the 7-Day average for daily new cases could be below 3,000 at year-end, down from 32,000 back in April. By current path, I mean a continuation of opening up the country according to guidelines with appropriate social distancing, masks, etc.
The 3,000 number is a projection, not a prediction since there is a possibility of a second wave although it looks like Australia is managing to hold cases down as they enter the winter season. But I remember Nautonnier told us early on there would be a second wave based on the Spanish Flu precedent.
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Post by missouriboy on May 27, 2020 21:15:24 GMT
My wife and I are breaking the Australian rule of staying within a 150 mile radius of home tomorrow when we will drive 2,000 miles from our winter home in Arizona to our summer home in Ohio. Before we leave I thought I’d look at my May 31 projection of coronavirus cases made on May 1. There were 36,000 new C-19 cases on May 1. The Spread Rate average for the preceding 5 days was 11.2%. Using the 11.2% number I projected the number of cases on May 31 projection would be 13,000 cases. It appears the actual number will be about 17,000 cases. This is a substantial reduction from May 1. But during May the Spread Rates on Thursday and Friday of each week have been quite high compared to the other 5 days. Going forward I’m going to use 7-day averages to better smooth out the effect of the daily fluctuations. The 7-Day average number of cases on May 31 will be about 21,000. This is higher than the 17,000 cases projected for the single day of May 31 because of the Thursday/Friday effect and because cases are declining overall so averaging in numbers from previous days will give a higher number. I predict the 7-Day average cases on June 30 will be down to 15,000 cases a day, a drop of 6,000 from the May 31. I always was careful in the past to say these forecasts based on Spread Rates were projections, not predictions. Now I’m confident enough to call this a prediction. If the US stays on the current path, it’s conceivable that the 7-Day average for daily new cases could be below 3,000 at year-end, down from 32,000 back in April. By current path, I mean a continuation of opening up the country according to guidelines with appropriate social distancing, masks, etc. The 3,000 number is a projection, not a prediction since there is a possibility of a second wave although it looks like Australia is managing to hold cases down as they enter the winter season. But I remember Nautonnier told us early on there would be a second wave based on the Spanish Flu precedent. Perhaps you should go into the modeling business. You've already decimated Imperial College's results with a staff of one.
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Post by nautonnier on May 27, 2020 22:18:38 GMT
True but I think the first wave was in November thru January almost worldwide but nobody knew what it was so it was just a bad flu. We are at the tail end of the second wave now. I don't think that there will be a third wave.
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Post by Ratty on May 27, 2020 23:45:03 GMT
My wife and I are breaking the Australian rule of staying within a 150 mile radius of home tomorrow when we will drive 2,000 miles from our winter home in Arizona to our summer home in Ohio. Before we leave I thought I’d look at my May 31 projection of coronavirus cases made on May 1. There were 36,000 new C-19 cases on May 1. The Spread Rate average for the preceding 5 days was 11.2%. Using the 11.2% number I projected the number of cases on May 31 projection would be 13,000 cases. It appears the actual number will be about 17,000 cases. This is a substantial reduction from May 1. But during May the Spread Rates on Thursday and Friday of each week have been quite high compared to the other 5 days. Going forward I’m going to use 7-day averages to better smooth out the effect of the daily fluctuations. The 7-Day average number of cases on May 31 will be about 21,000. This is higher than the 17,000 cases projected for the single day of May 31 because of the Thursday/Friday effect and because cases are declining overall so averaging in numbers from previous days will give a higher number. I predict the 7-Day average cases on June 30 will be down to 15,000 cases a day, a drop of 6,000 from the May 31. I always was careful in the past to say these forecasts based on Spread Rates were projections, not predictions. Now I’m confident enough to call this a prediction. If the US stays on the current path, it’s conceivable that the 7-Day average for daily new cases could be below 3,000 at year-end, down from 32,000 back in April. By current path, I mean a continuation of opening up the country according to guidelines with appropriate social distancing, masks, etc. The 3,000 number is a projection, not a prediction since there is a possibility of a second wave although it looks like Australia is managing to hold cases down as they enter the winter season. But I remember Nautonnier told us early on there would be a second wave based on the Spanish Flu precedent. Perhaps you should go into the modeling business. You've already decimated Imperial College's results with a staff of one. ... and learned from climate modellers too, shifting the goalposts midstream. Just kidding, Duwayne.
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Post by duwayne on May 28, 2020 1:01:52 GMT
On April 11 I posted a projection (not a prediction) showing what would happen if the Spread Rate fell from the then current 15% down to below 10% and then rose back up to 12% when the Reopening began towards the end of April. The result was a new case rate of 4,000 per day at the end of May. The Spread Rate declined but has remained stubbornly above 10% for the most part. Over the last 5 days the Spread Rates have been 10.8%,9.5%,10.6%,12.0%, 12.6%. The average is 11.2%.
The rates vary considerably from day to day probably because new clusters are discovered in prisons or old folks homes on a regular basis and individual states took advantage of more plentiful test kits to greatly expand their testing. And there is an incentive to pad the numbers as mentioned below.The result of the increased testing is that more of the actual cases are being found. And that’s kept the Spread Rate from falling further. I have made a new projection using the 11.2% Spread Rate average from the last 5 days extended until May 31. The result is the number of new cases on that day would be about 13,000. That’s down significantly from the current level of 31,000 cases but still a large number.
The new projection shows a daily death rate on May 31 to be 940 and the cumulative deaths would be just over 106,000. The cumulative infections would be about 1.7 million. For the new projection to happen there needs to be a well-controlled “Reopening” with a continued focus on social distancing and protection of the most vulnerable such that the Spread Rate does not increase. The White House Guidelines for Reopening require that new cases trend down. I have a feeling the governors may have padded the numbers a bit to make this easier. Ratty, when you mentioned changing the goal posts midstream, I thought you might be referring to my May 1 forecast. I copied the forecast above which shows the 13,000 new case projection. You must have been referring to something else.
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Post by Ratty on May 28, 2020 2:03:02 GMT
[ Snip ] Ratty, when you mentioned changing the goal posts midstream, I thought you might be referring to my May 1 forecast. I copied the forecast above which shows the 13,000 new case projection. You must have been referring to something else. Yes .... it was a weak attempt at humour. Have a good trip.
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Post by sigurdur on May 28, 2020 11:17:55 GMT
[ Snip ] Ratty, when you mentioned changing the goal posts midstream, I thought you might be referring to my May 1 forecast. I copied the forecast above which shows the 13,000 new case projection. You must have been referring to something else. Yes .... it was a weak attempt at humour. Have a good trip. Very weak. Get checked for the Covid! Soon!
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Post by Ratty on May 28, 2020 12:18:20 GMT
Yes .... it was a weak attempt at humour. Have a good trip. Very weak. Get checked for the Covid! Soon! Sig, I'm almost certain I have caught something: Every time I see or hear a government sponsored announcement, I go into a panic.
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Post by blustnmtn on May 28, 2020 12:24:32 GMT
Very weak. Get checked for the Covid! Soon! Sig, I'm almost certain I have caught something: Every time I see or hear a government sponsored announcement, I go into a panic. An incurable case of critical thinking Ratty. No need to worry, it is apparently a non-contagious ailment.
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Post by Ratty on May 28, 2020 12:34:57 GMT
Sig, I'm almost certain I have caught something: Every time I see or hear a government sponsored announcement, I go into a panic. An incurable case of critical thinking Ratty. No need to worry, it is apparently a non-contagious ailment. That's a relief. Thanks Blue, appreciate your advice and I have found something that helps with the panic attacks:
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