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Post by missouriboy on Jun 3, 2020 23:22:40 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 4, 2020 9:21:09 GMT
This could be total confirmation bias or more venal... "The Guardian’s investigation has found:
A search of publicly available material suggests several of Surgisphere’s employees have little or no data or scientific background. An employee listed as a science editor appears to be a science fiction author and fantasy artist. Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess.
The company’s LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees. This was changed to three employees as of Wednesday.
While Surgisphere claims to run one of the largest and fastest hospital databases in the world, it has almost no online presence. Its Twitter handle has fewer than 170 followers, with no posts between October 2017 and March 2020.
Until Monday, the “get in touch” link on Surgisphere’s homepage redirected to a WordPress template for a cryptocurrency website, raising questions about how hospitals could easily contact the company to join its database.
Desai has been named in three medical malpractice suits, unrelated to the Surgisphere database. In an interview with the Scientist, Desai previously described the allegations as “unfounded”.
In 2008, Desai launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website Indiegogo promoting a wearable “next generation human augmentation device that can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”. The device never came to fruition."www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquineI have found no academics that check that their cited references are actually correct. In general scientists are totally gullible and driven by confirmation bias. So a quick electronic search based on a few key words. Pick those research papers that support what you want your paper to say - often without reading the full paper, rarely checking the paper's references, and, NEVER actually cross checking or attempting to reproduce research. These 'medical professionals' are deciding urgent care for the world.... and are being driven by #TDS and the media. Next time your personal doctor prescribes something you need to wonder about it and whether it is better than JuJu.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 4, 2020 10:39:03 GMT
Imagine my shock
The real not susceptible figure is 95%
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 4, 2020 15:45:16 GMT
"International scientists have reached a near-unanimous consensus, however, that the virus emerged in animals – most likely bats or pangolins – before jumping to the human population...."Of course the virus emerged in animals. But it has had some gain of function since then as it was uniquely capable of infecting human cells once it got into the 'wild' - not something that you find in viruses in bats, civets or pangolins. It IS what you find in iteratively bred viruses kept in a human cell culture perhaps with other RNA viruses added to allow for combinational evolution.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 4, 2020 17:05:04 GMT
This could be total confirmation bias or more venal... "The Guardian’s investigation has found:
A search of publicly available material suggests several of Surgisphere’s employees have little or no data or scientific background. An employee listed as a science editor appears to be a science fiction author and fantasy artist. Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess.
The company’s LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees. This was changed to three employees as of Wednesday.
While Surgisphere claims to run one of the largest and fastest hospital databases in the world, it has almost no online presence. Its Twitter handle has fewer than 170 followers, with no posts between October 2017 and March 2020.
Until Monday, the “get in touch” link on Surgisphere’s homepage redirected to a WordPress template for a cryptocurrency website, raising questions about how hospitals could easily contact the company to join its database.
Desai has been named in three medical malpractice suits, unrelated to the Surgisphere database. In an interview with the Scientist, Desai previously described the allegations as “unfounded”.
In 2008, Desai launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website Indiegogo promoting a wearable “next generation human augmentation device that can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”. The device never came to fruition."www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquineI have found no academics that check that their cited references are actually correct. In general scientists are totally gullible and driven by confirmation bias. So a quick electronic search based on a few key words. Pick those research papers that support what you want your paper to say - often without reading the full paper, rarely checking the paper's references, and, NEVER actually cross checking or attempting to reproduce research. These 'medical professionals' are deciding urgent care for the world.... and are being driven by #TDS and the media. Next time your personal doctor prescribes something you need to wonder about it and whether it is better than JuJu. Which brings up the question ... what was the reward here? Where were they expecting to make money? Who was paying for this operation?
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 4, 2020 18:46:59 GMT
Naut I am not sure if the natural immunity number is 95% or 80% but it did spread very fast.
I think if you ran the numbers in the models on a R0 of 10 rather than 3 and set the background immunity at at 80% it looks like an R0 of 3 but the Golpertz curve rollover is hit very quickly. all the ship studies came to this conclusion very quickly.
the spread rate is ugly the death rate is standard for a flu virus. most of this data was known about in February/march.
HCQ and Zn and D3 all pull this back to social distancing and business as usual. Just look at Singapore and Germany.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 4, 2020 19:00:58 GMT
Naut I am not sure if the natural immunity number is 95% or 80% but it did spread very fast. I think if you ran the numbers in the models on a R0 of 10 rather than 3 and set the background immunity at at 80% it looks like an R0 of 3 but the Golpertz curve rollover is hit very quickly. all the ship studies came to this conclusion very quickly. the spread rate is ugly the death rate is standard for a flu virus. most of this data was known about in February/march. HCQ and Zn and D3 all pull this back to social distancing and business as usual. Just look at Singapore and Germany. You should use the predator prey approach. Imagine foxes being released on an island that has lots of rabbits The number of rabbits killed rapidly rises as the foxes breed and eat more rabbits, then it becomes more difficult to find rabbits and the foxes start dying but still rabbits are found as things slowly tail off until both the rabbits and the foxes have died out. This is the pattern when say 5% of the population are susceptible. Initially there are sufficient for many of them to get infected rapidly. But then as they die or recover and become immune, the number of susceptible to infect reduces steadily until they are so few and far between that the virus dies out. That has been the pattern with all previous SARS epidemics. Interfering with the availability of the susceptible by distancing extends the period of infections of the susceptible before they die or get infected and recover and the predator dies out. The only way to change things is to move people from susceptible to innately immune - vitamin D, zinc, selenium sufficiency will do that - but nobody is emphasizing that they are just into delaying the infection.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 4, 2020 19:52:04 GMT
Naut I am not sure if the natural immunity number is 95% or 80% but it did spread very fast. I think if you ran the numbers in the models on a R0 of 10 rather than 3 and set the background immunity at at 80% it looks like an R0 of 3 but the Golpertz curve rollover is hit very quickly. all the ship studies came to this conclusion very quickly. the spread rate is ugly the death rate is standard for a flu virus. most of this data was known about in February/march. HCQ and Zn and D3 all pull this back to social distancing and business as usual. Just look at Singapore and Germany. You should use the predator prey approach. Imagine foxes being released on an island that has lots of rabbits The number of rabbits killed rapidly rises as the foxes breed and eat more rabbits, then it becomes more difficult to find rabbits and the foxes start dying but still rabbits are found as things slowly tail off until both the rabbits and the foxes have died out. This is the pattern when say 5% of the population are susceptible. Initially there are sufficient for many of them to get infected rapidly. But then as they die or recover and become immune, the number of susceptible to infect reduces steadily until they are so few and far between that the virus dies out. That has been the pattern with all previous SARS epidemics. Interfering with the availability of the susceptible by distancing extends the period of infections of the susceptible before they die or get infected and recover and the predator dies out. The only way to change things is to move people from susceptible to innately immune - vitamin D, zinc, selenium sufficiency will do that - but nobody is emphasizing that they are just into delaying the infection.
They can't (even assuming they wanted to). Because awkward questions and responsibility issues would start to emerge.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 4, 2020 21:20:52 GMT
The jury is still out on the impact of these deficiencies from a infection perspective but there is no debate that people survive the infection better should they actually get it.
You know we have very very high levels of asthma in NZ and I mean way to high. Selenium is in dire soil shortage here in NZ, the linkage has been discussed and researched for decades, the actions taken nil.
Very interesting social issue and not limited to NZ at all. I don't really have a solution for this in mind, education??
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 5, 2020 0:31:30 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 5, 2020 6:18:06 GMT
Mrs Acid got her antibody test results, they're negative. Gotta admit, even tho intellectually i strongly doubted a positive result, emotionally a positive result would have at least provided answers as to why an illness at Xmas has had a lasting effect for 6 months now. My mother has just gone on a double antibiotic course for similar xmas chest cough/fever too. I know this is something experienced by many out there.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 5, 2020 7:11:14 GMT
"NYC hits hopeful milestone: Zero confirmed coronavirus deaths for first day since March Michael Gartland By Michael Gartland New York Daily News | Jun 04, 2020 | 5:28 PM "
We will shortly have multiple days with no deaths in many States. Without a vaccine the pandemic will just stop.
Lucky it is out of the news or it would be embarrassing for the governors of states still in lockdown
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 5, 2020 13:17:16 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 5, 2020 14:24:29 GMT
"Nature abhors a vacuum". Barbarians will rapidly step in to fill the void.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 5, 2020 19:35:57 GMT
When I left Arizona on May 28, the 7-day average US Spread Rate was 11.6%. The Spread Rate (as I’ve defined it) is the number of new cases for a given day divided by the total new cases for the preceding 8 days (the spreaders).
One week later the 7-day average Spread Rate has jumped from 11.6% to 12.8%.
If the Spread Rate had remained at the 11.6% May 28 rate through December 31, the 7-Day average at year-end would be 700.
If the Spread Rate were to remain at the current 12.8% rate through year-end, the 7-day average rate would be 66,235 new cases per day on December 31 of this year.
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