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Post by Ratty on Jul 4, 2020 7:44:35 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 4, 2020 13:28:49 GMT
I was told that it is dangerous for me to hug and kiss my grandkids. I told that person when I am so afraid that I can't hug and kiss my grandkids I might as well cease to breathe. I do like breathing, so I continue to hug and kiss my grandkids. N Dakota is 8th from last in cases in US. I take it ND has low pop density, your about as safe as anyone in US essentially, low risk. That said, caught up with a pal who had this, symptoms weren't bad but he couldn't walk 400m without losing breath/feeling dizzy for 6 weeks. Constantly exhausted. Not sure how anyone could operate in any profession in that state. Same with my brother. But at the same time many of the new cases in Florida are people going into hospital for 'elective' surgery and being routinely tested for COVID-19 and found to be positive - but completely asymptomatic - and being 'counted' as a COVID-19 hospitalization. This matches the results of the serology tests done around 6 weeks ago in LA County that found evidence of thousands of people that had been infected but were totally unaware that they had been. It would be really useful if instead of trying to raise societal issues because darker skinned people get more severe infections, the medics were to list from the available information which people can expect to suffer from infections most and what they could do to lessen the impact. So a female, sufficient in Vitamin D, zinc, selenium, type O blood group, slim under age 50 is almost certain to only get asymptomatic infection if at all. If people were able to go into a simple chart and change those factors they can change to improve their response to SARS-CoV-2 then that would be a simple low cost preventative approach. It would certainly be better than screeching about infection case numbers, masks, and that you are all going to stay locked down or die unless you pay my group $billions for a vaccine - and no no hydroxychloroquine doesn't work (~sixty thousand Americans have died unnecessarily due to the deprecation of HCQ/zinc by the vaccine sellers)
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Post by duwayne on Jul 4, 2020 14:36:57 GMT
My May 28th prediction of US COVID cases for June turned out to be far too low. But, on the other hand, I recognized this very early on and on June 2 only 2 days into the forecast period, I noted that something had changed and the infections were about to surge and I posted that observation here and abandoned my forecast. I think I was actually ahead of the pack in noticing the coming large increase in cases.
Now, even as the big numbers roll in, I’m starting to see a possibility that the surge may be about to slow. On May 28, the 7-Day average Spread Rate was 11.5%. One month later on June 28 it had risen all the way to 15.6%. But in the last few days while the number of new cases was hitting record highs, the 7-Day average Spread Rate has dropped to 14.8%. This is still significantly above the 12.5% rate which is necessary for an actual decline in daily cases, but the upward momentum appears to be slowing.
I also believe that while there has been some growth in coronavirus infections in the US during June, the numbers being reported significantly overstate the growth. I’ll cover that in another post.
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Post by duwayne on Jul 4, 2020 20:18:59 GMT
I’ve spent some time looking into the COVID-19 statistics and one thing I discovered early on is that the Atlantic Monthly magazine people are a key aggregator of US statistics including those reported by Worldometer. It’s called the COVID Tracker Project. The Atlantic Monthly is a far-left magazine and about as anti-Trump as one can get. Their incentive is to overstate the numbers.
The CDC also reports numbers and their tendency undoubtedly is to overstate rather than understate. Diseases and epidemics are the basis for the CDC’s existence.
I see 5 ways the number of new cases are probably overstated. 1) Antigen tests show the possible presence of virus. However, when virus is destroyed by the body’s immune function before any real infection, fragments remain may result in a positive result. 2) Antibody tests indicate virus cells were once present, but they are not new cases. 3) More than 1 test is often run on an individual resulting in multiple positive test results for 1 infection. 4) Probable cases are included in the reported numbers and these are prone to errors including multiple reporting of the same case. 5) A significant expansion in the number of tests will undoubtedly over-state the percentage increase in new cases since the percentage of cases detected is increased.
In reality, there are many more cases than reported because asyptomatic cases are often never seen. But the percentage growth in the reported number of new cases cannot be taken as an indication of the actual percentage growth in infections or the expected growth in hospitalizations and deaths.
The deaths from COVID-19 in the US is showing a decline in spite of the large growth in the number of reported new cases.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 4, 2020 23:11:36 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 5, 2020 0:14:29 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 5, 2020 13:46:40 GMT
To add to Duwayne's comments I have yet to see if the Corona Virus testing can tell the difference between the variants that cause the common cold and the variant that is SARS-CoV-2. It has already been shown that those with antibodies to the common cold variants have immune systems that are 'not naive' to Corona Virus infections and may resist the infection successfully becoming asymptomatic. The LA County Serology testing showed orders of magnitude more people had antibodies that suggested they had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 but were unaware of any illness. Perhaps the new more efficient testing is picking up these numbers of infections - it does not meant that the virus is more virulent - you've put the overhead light on and now you can see more cockroaches. And of course the nightmare that Bill Gates, Fauci et al do NOT want people to notice. The calculated Case Fatality Rate is dropping like a brick. All this handshaking is dead, you will be wearing hijabs for the rest of your life etc etc., until we get paid huge $billions for a vaccine which you will need to take every 6 months --- all that is now looking like a shakedown - which it is. Off to have my daily brazil nut to keep my selenium up ;-)
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 5, 2020 13:59:28 GMT
To add to the above: "An international team of researchers, led by Professor Margaret Rayman at the University of Surrey, has identified a link between the COVID-19 cure rate and regional selenium status in China.......
.....For example, in the city of Enshi in Hubei Province, which has the highest selenium intake in China, the cure rate (percentage of COVID-19 patients declared 'cured') was almost three-times higher than the average for all the other cities in Hubei Province. By contrast, in Heilongjiang Province, where selenium intake is among the lowest in the world, the death rate from COVID-19 was almost five-times as high as the average of all the other provinces outside of Hubei.
Most convincingly, the researchers found that the COVID-19 cure rate was significantly associated with selenium status, as measured by the amount of selenium in hair, in 17 cities outside of Hubei."www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200429105907.htm
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 5, 2020 17:11:12 GMT
Have you all seen the banner headlines across the TV, print media and internet about how, as reported by the WorldOmeter, yesterday had the fewest recorded COVID deaths in the US since March 22?
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2020 17:49:49 GMT
We're prepping for knee replacements - the Mrs. first, then I will follow later this year. We went in for the pre-op this morning with the Mrs. Traffic was almost rush-hour levels in Seattle, then east of Seattle. I noticed westbound traffic was heavy, but eastbound traffic was much heavier. Since this was well outside of rush-hour, and it is a holiday for companies like Microsoft and Amazon in the US (major contributors to our traffic congestion), my conclusion is people are headed out for the weekend. It seems like a lot more people are hoping to disappear into the mountains than to get to the coast. I think that would be smart since I think everybody is on guard for the coast (not that it can all be patrolled - believe me, I know ). For the most part, I think people are going to do what people want to do, and it appears MANY are ignoring what the "experts" are telling them to do and just getting out and doing what they want to do. It'll be a good weekend for the lady's business, I suspect. In fact, she rushed out the door a couple of hours ago without disturbing what I was doing, and that usually indicates she looked at the security cameras and saw more people than the crew could handle, so she rushed down to work - I've seen that happen quite a few times. Personally, I'm very frustrated, though. I want to be out more, but knees have limited me a bit, and the talk about the virus has limited me from the human interaction I really love. As I've demonstrated on here a few times, I'm a bit fatalistic about the progress of the virus - I think the virus is going to run its course, and since we have no vaccine, and won't have a vaccine before the outbreak ends, there's nothing we're going to do to prevent its spread. Treatment is another story though. Anyway, the reason for my frustration is that I simply am tired of being either cooped up or having someone trying to shame me out of getting out of my yard. I can't even see my grandkids right now because they're so busy "protecting" us. How do I get out of this circus? I'm sure many of you have similar feelings. I can sympathize with both the joint and lock down issues. We are a fairly small city (approx ~150,000 for greater metro area) built around the main campus of the University of Missouri. Dead center ~25 miles due north of the Big MO in the wooded fringe of the glaciated plains that grade to prairie as you leave Boone Co to the north. In our low density SW old town residential center (adjacent to the University), a system of abandoned railways along watersheds have become an extensive network of urban to rural trails extending to the Missouri River, then both east and west to St Louis and Kansas City. We are a mixture of pragmatic, don't f_ck with me conservative Missourians (many only 3-4 generations removed from Quantrill's and Schnauble's mounted partisans) with a heavy mixture of "twitchy" liberals who cluster in the " very semi-woke" center and wish not(?) or dare not(?) travel to, nor preach in, the largely rebel hinterlands. A very mini-version of the national picture. This as lead-up to explaining the dispositions of a mayor and council who more or less know deep in their fecal-anal regions that they cannot have their way with Columbia citizenry ... thus a light hand. This coupled with the academic's propensity to committees and deep blame spreading limits the worst parts of their liberal tendencies. It is hard to achieve critical mass from our small "hood" and their self-flagulating campus lap dogs ... especially in summer when the "preppy puppies" go home. Thus I am free to walk the three low-density blocks to the trail and do as I wish while never seeing an enforcement officer of any type. Thus, circus light. If I were a deer, it would be faster along the incised drainages ... as mother and her two offspring do every day using my side yard drainage as entry point to the tasty gardens of the hood. Me thinks she does not understand how thin that veneer of inter-species tolerance is. Thus, the four-month ordeal has not been overwhelming as me and my pick axe (Cindy) have been busy landscaping and pruning the sloping edges of my treed urban lot with deer-proof flowers and vegetables. Entrenching, wall raising and infill, with deer-discouraging structural experiments as needed. As for appendages, I cannot personally speak to knees but have friends, neighbors and relatives who praise the results. I can speak to hips (which are easier they say) lost to arthritis, but which are now much better. I cannot run a marathon, but can painlessly hike anywhere I want to go. Climate and genetic genealogy hobbies stimulate the mind and compete for time with exercise, etc. I readily admit to being "lucky" (planned or otherwise), as many are stuck in small abodes with little non-dense urban space. Even with the best defense in terms of distancing, there is the ever-present liklihood of contagion at some point. I personally do not wish to be a test pilot for new vaccines ... and will leave that experiment to others. If I do not successfully wait it out, then I will trust to good genetics, good diet, medical facility proximity and rebel spirit to resist the enemy. If I fail, as everyone will sooner or later, then I hope I would do so in the spirit of the probably contrived line of the old chief in Little Big Man ... "It's a good day to die". But more probably as my uncle recalled his wife's last words when she had a heart attack ... "Whoaa, what the f_ck was that?" He always had a strange sense of humor.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 5, 2020 21:21:57 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2020 0:37:35 GMT
And another explanation....that just happens to support Fauci, Bill Gates and the wait for a vaccine medics. " Yes there has been an increase in testing. AND New Tests! A new test called an IGg trest has been in the news in the last 2 weeks. IGg is an immunoglobulin test. It shows whether you have antibodies to the virus. If so, you are immune. These tests are being reported as COVID New Cases when positive (!!!!!) This is giving the surge in cases. Look around you. It has been obvious the me that various powers that be have wanted a “Second Wave” since near the beginning. If a second wave does not occur, it will need to be created."wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/05/the-safety-of-outdoor-air-for-coronavirus-is-now-obvious/#comment-3028952"CDC Sabotaging The Economy Posted on July 2, 2020 by tonyheller
The CDC is combining antibody and current infection tests, so that anyone who has ever had the virus counts as a positive. Using this methodology they will be able to maintain panic indefinitely, even if very few people are currently infected."realclimatescience.com/2020/07/cdc-sabotaging-the-economy/"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons."www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2020 10:45:20 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2020 17:59:39 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 7, 2020 10:36:18 GMT
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