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Post by nautonnier on Oct 19, 2020 18:09:49 GMT
This may just cause upset in the hypochondriacs for Biden groups...
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Post by Ratty on Oct 19, 2020 18:47:45 GMT
[ Snip ] The ICUs are routinely full from October through March. I have been told by people in the trade, that this year is no worse than any other and may even be easier. More people dying at home.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 19, 2020 20:52:13 GMT
Wow, a bit over 8,000 out of a population of over 38 million. That's almost rising to the point of nearly being kinda close to noticeable!! ...oh... wait... "According to the latest WHO data published in 2018 Coronary Heart Disease Deaths in Poland reached 121,935 or 35.27% of total deaths. The age adjusted Death Rate is 144.86 per 100,000 of population ranks Poland #72 in the world. Review other causes of death by clicking the links below or choose the full health profile." Let's see, this is complicated math... hmmm... I make that an average of 10,000 *deaths* a month, in Poland, from heart disease alone. So if ALL 8,000 of those people *die* it will still be lower than the average monthly death toll from heart disease. Poland should TOTALLY panic. Again....its not the deaths, its the strain on healthcare. If they runout of beds and infections are still rising, they must curb infections. Guys, really, whats so hard to understand??? I see what you mean, I really do, but ... I compiled some figures for UK & US. UK US Current deaths by Covid 44,000 220,000 Current Population 68,000,000 320,000,000 Total Annual Deaths 616,000 2,000,000 Covid death rate (per pop.) 0.065% 0.069%Total death rate (per pop.) 0.91% 0.63% (US is somewhat younger) Blitz deaths in 1940 ~40,000 Blitz rate for pop. 49.6 mil. 0.08% not quite at Blitz levels yet. Hopefully not so trite statements ... Freedom is not free. Authoritarians will always abuse their charge. Failure to resist will become habit. Authoritarianism is to be resisted at all costs. In the end, I fear authoritarians more than I fear death by Covid (even before I had it). There were probably lots of subway shelter space in 1940? If I were laying on a gurney awaiting a bed, I hope I would appreciate the above statements. Hide (protect) the old and infirm. Meet the enemy at the bridge, because it will sweep the whole population, one way or the other.
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Post by wheels59 on Oct 19, 2020 21:49:40 GMT
Acid our hospitals get overrun during a normal flu outbreak but we never shut the country down because of it. Most of the covid hospital cases are sent to certain hospitals where they appear overrun and are concentrated on by our media friends to make it look worse than it is. During the peak in March, April May a lot of hospitals around the country were empty. More people are dying and are going to die because of cancelled operations, tests, and diagnosis of other serious things than this covid outbreak will ever be responsible for.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 19, 2020 22:48:57 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Oct 20, 2020 3:49:58 GMT
Acid our hospitals get overrun during a normal flu outbreak but we never shut the country down because of it. Most of the covid hospital cases are sent to certain hospitals where they appear overrun and are concentrated on by our media friends to make it look worse than it is. During the peak in March, April May a lot of hospitals around the country were empty. More people are dying and are going to die because of cancelled operations, tests, and diagnosis of other serious things than this covid outbreak will ever be responsible for. Flu fills hospitals and the NHS is designed with this in mind, flu has been around a long time and when we behave normally we cope. Covid filled hospitals once maybe as much as 10%....in some regions....caught it, very very quickly. It wouldn't take that long for 80% infection rates, everywhere. Nhs would be overwhelmed. Covid is highly infectious, but an issue with doubling is it initially seems like no big deal. Say infection doubles every 10 days, from 1. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 No one is noticing after 80 days. 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 130 days later, likely getting noticed. 16384 32768 65536 131072 170 days, probably out of control. 262144 524288 1048576 2097152 210 days 4000000 8000000 16000000 32000000 64000000 260 days thats pretty much all of uk. That is what will happen if the virus, like flu, spreads uncontrolled. Covid however, puts a greater proportion of infected im hospital. Before anyone brings up Sweden and herd immunity, the population of Sweden behaved differently under covid and there's many reasons why their demographics allowed social distancing which is harder in other countries. The virus doesn't care for all our opinions and scepticism, it will continue to double infections every 10-14 days unless we behave differently.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 20, 2020 4:11:17 GMT
Further...
Behaviour which limits spread potential of virus is not limited to what the GVMT instructs us.
As virus cases increase, sensible people take some additional precautions thus increasing the doubling time which automatically skews results against projections.
This leads to a bunch of people claiming the projections were wrong which is incorrect, as a projection can only be accurate if conditions for spread remain consistent....which they don't.
For example, 2 months ago on site everything was becoming more relaxed, now trades avoid being in plots together and remain separated, I personally open windows etc to ventilate rooms. Admittedly, partly this is because the reality is, if you work in a plot with someone who then tests positive, there is a chance track and trace will notify you to isolate for 2 weeks, its better to lose a day of work then 14....
These measure only reduce the risk, not eliminate, but reducing risk is putting the brakes on, you don't come immediately to a stop but you are slowing. This is preferable to either coasting or accelerating.
Same thing with partial measures as introduced by GVMT, to keep our lives running, we need to apply brakes.
Same with masks, they're not a cure or a complete solution, but an extra few pounds of pressure on the brake pedal. It all adds up...but atm, clearly not enough.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2020 6:41:45 GMT
Acid our hospitals get overrun during a normal flu outbreak but we never shut the country down because of it. Most of the covid hospital cases are sent to certain hospitals where they appear overrun and are concentrated on by our media friends to make it look worse than it is. During the peak in March, April May a lot of hospitals around the country were empty. More people are dying and are going to die because of cancelled operations, tests, and diagnosis of other serious things than this covid outbreak will ever be responsible for. Flu fills hospitals and the NHS is designed with this in mind, flu has been around a long time and when we behave normally we cope. Covid filled hospitals once maybe as much as 10%....in some regions....caught it, very very quickly. It wouldn't take that long for 80% infection rates, everywhere. Nhs would be overwhelmed. Covid is highly infectious, but an issue with doubling is it initially seems like no big deal. Say infection doubles every 10 days, from 1. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 No one is noticing after 80 days. 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 130 days later, likely getting noticed. 16384 32768 65536 131072 170 days, probably out of control. 262144 524288 1048576 2097152 210 days 4000000 8000000 16000000 32000000 64000000 260 days thats pretty much all of uk. That is what will happen if the virus, like flu, spreads uncontrolled. Covid however, puts a greater proportion of infected im hospital. Before anyone brings up Sweden and herd immunity, the population of Sweden behaved differently under covid and there's many reasons why their demographics allowed social distancing which is harder in other countries. The virus doesn't care for all our opinions and scepticism, it will continue to double infections every 10-14 days unless we behave differently. Except that only around 5% of the community are susceptible to COVID-19 as most have innate immunity to it. London underground normally carries 5 million individual passenger journeys a day, much of the day in unairconditioned close proximity with each other and until initial lockdown in mid-March. Bus travel was not significantly different. Yet less than 5% of London were infected. The tube carried on operating throughout and only recently have masks been required. If COVID could infect everyone it would have done. Same in New York City 5% or less are infected - and 60% of those infected had stayed at home. 'Essential' workers have worked throughout and not infected (yes the same 5% rate). It looks like those with a robust innate immune system do not get COVID-19. This means remaining sufficient in Vitamin D, Zinc, selenium. (And probably other micro-nutrients too), The so called 'asymptomatic' cases are those that the virus has tried to infect and failed. They will shed dead virus for a week or so as the cells that were infected die (usually by apoptosis) but the virus would not have replicated in infected cells blocked by the intracellular zinc. I think that FauXi or whoever decided on this virus was mislead by initial trials with zinc deficient Asians whose genome also has more ACE2 receptors so they would experience rapid widespread infections. The thought was that this disease would have a huge Infection Fatality Rate, Whereas it is hugely less than influenza if patients 80+ with comorbidities are not considered. As those with poor innate immune systems either die or recover with immunity - the disease will run its course. It is close to that point now with less and less susceptible people to infect - which is called herd immunity.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 20, 2020 8:43:30 GMT
Naut you have it well covered there. Have a read of Matt Ridley its the young and the kids that are the heart of the herd immunity that closing the schools stopped happening in the UK but not so in Sweden. As per the usual Vit D3 and Zinc etc. but people under 30 are virtually unharmed and with them having herd immunity and being the socially most mobile the bridges are lost. www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/students-who-catch-covid/One other point that makes me actually quite annoyed. Boris wears a mask he has had it. its virtue signaling. we should pay people who can demonstrate immunity extra because they can work without PP gear and in close contact with others. make it a valuable immunity and the spreaders can move back from the combat zone. the exit from this economic madness needs to be found.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2020 11:57:06 GMT
Naut you have it well covered there. Have a read of Matt Ridley its the young and the kids that are the heart of the herd immunity that closing the schools stopped happening in the UK but not so in Sweden. As per the usual Vit D3 and Zinc etc. but people under 30 are virtually unharmed and with them having herd immunity and being the socially most mobile the bridges are lost. www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/students-who-catch-covid/One other point that makes me actually quite annoyed. Boris wears a mask he has had it. its virtue signaling. we should pay people who can demonstrate immunity extra because they can work without PP gear and in close contact with others. make it a valuable immunity and the spreaders can move back from the combat zone. the exit from this economic madness needs to be found. I had questioned that before online and the normal thought police started with 'we don't know how long immunity lasts' - the reply of course is that if it doesn't then there is no point having a vaccine. But the consequential reasoning is a step too far for some people they will wear their garlic necklace because an innumerate politician tells them that is following 'the science'. It is worrying how simply some people have been conditioned. All softening up for 'the Great Reset'.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 20, 2020 12:06:09 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2020 15:53:34 GMT
So the net result is that worldwide there is a 5 day cure for COVID-19 that real doctors with real patients use effectively and save thousands of lives. Meanwhile medical bureaucrats and 'researchers' spend all their time carrying out unprofessional 'clinical trials' at the wrong time using the wrong regimen to claim that Zinc/Zinc Ionophore/Antibiotic doesn't work. These medical bureaucrats and researchers are perfectly happy to let hundreds of thousands die to win their argument with real doctors treating patients. At the same time they are talking up an infection that is minor for no apparent reason apart from money for the vaccination groups and perhaps to force 'the world' to have some kind of vaccination ID/Passport. For example in UK Wales has been put into lockdown because of 3 deaths. The UK NHS is STILL sending COVID cases home with acetaminophen to get worse then call the hospital when they have the cytokine storm and could die in the next few days. Instead of a simple zinc/zinc ionophore/antibiotic treatment that could be administered by their primary care physician and they would be better in a few days. FauXi has a lot to answer for as does Fergusson of Imperial College
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Post by acidohm on Oct 20, 2020 17:38:53 GMT
Flu fills hospitals and the NHS is designed with this in mind, flu has been around a long time and when we behave normally we cope. Covid filled hospitals once maybe as much as 10%....in some regions....caught it, very very quickly. It wouldn't take that long for 80% infection rates, everywhere. Nhs would be overwhelmed. Covid is highly infectious, but an issue with doubling is it initially seems like no big deal. Say infection doubles every 10 days, from 1. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 No one is noticing after 80 days. 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 130 days later, likely getting noticed. 16384 32768 65536 131072 170 days, probably out of control. 262144 524288 1048576 2097152 210 days 4000000 8000000 16000000 32000000 64000000 260 days thats pretty much all of uk. That is what will happen if the virus, like flu, spreads uncontrolled. Covid however, puts a greater proportion of infected im hospital. Before anyone brings up Sweden and herd immunity, the population of Sweden behaved differently under covid and there's many reasons why their demographics allowed social distancing which is harder in other countries. The virus doesn't care for all our opinions and scepticism, it will continue to double infections every 10-14 days unless we behave differently. Except that only around 5% of the community are susceptible to COVID-19 as most have innate immunity to it. London underground normally carries 5 million individual passenger journeys a day, much of the day in unairconditioned close proximity with each other and until initial lockdown in mid-March. Bus travel was not significantly different. Yet less than 5% of London were infected. The tube carried on operating throughout and only recently have masks been required. If COVID could infect everyone it would have done. Same in New York City 5% or less are infected - and 60% of those infected had stayed at home. 'Essential' workers have worked throughout and not infected (yes the same 5% rate). It looks like those with a robust innate immune system do not get COVID-19. This means remaining sufficient in Vitamin D, Zinc, selenium. (And probably other micro-nutrients too), The so called 'asymptomatic' cases are those that the virus has tried to infect and failed. They will shed dead virus for a week or so as the cells that were infected die (usually by apoptosis) but the virus would not have replicated in infected cells blocked by the intracellular zinc. I think that FauXi or whoever decided on this virus was mislead by initial trials with zinc deficient Asians whose genome also has more ACE2 receptors so they would experience rapid widespread infections. The thought was that this disease would have a huge Infection Fatality Rate, Whereas it is hugely less than influenza if patients 80+ with comorbidities are not considered. As those with poor innate immune systems either die or recover with immunity - the disease will run its course. It is close to that point now with less and less susceptible people to infect - which is called herd immunity. Infection in London probably reached the highest in UK at around 15% by May. I honestly couldn't disagree more with all you say regarding this subject Naut, with the greatest respect. At least this isn't an echo chamber....
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 20, 2020 18:27:52 GMT
Ultimately the R0 is variable within a population/region thus the infection level when the R0 falls below 1 then fades. Changes of behavior and the portion of the population still open to the infection moves around through seasons recovered people.
The vaccine story is bizarre when you consider that the vulnerable are the old (Me many of Us) and they will not have an induced response so the symptomless will be unmotivated to vaccinate and they could just get it for gods sakes!!!
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 20, 2020 20:06:45 GMT
Except that only around 5% of the community are susceptible to COVID-19 as most have innate immunity to it. London underground normally carries 5 million individual passenger journeys a day, much of the day in unairconditioned close proximity with each other and until initial lockdown in mid-March. Bus travel was not significantly different. Yet less than 5% of London were infected. The tube carried on operating throughout and only recently have masks been required. If COVID could infect everyone it would have done. Same in New York City 5% or less are infected - and 60% of those infected had stayed at home. 'Essential' workers have worked throughout and not infected (yes the same 5% rate). It looks like those with a robust innate immune system do not get COVID-19. This means remaining sufficient in Vitamin D, Zinc, selenium. (And probably other micro-nutrients too), The so called 'asymptomatic' cases are those that the virus has tried to infect and failed. They will shed dead virus for a week or so as the cells that were infected die (usually by apoptosis) but the virus would not have replicated in infected cells blocked by the intracellular zinc. I think that FauXi or whoever decided on this virus was mislead by initial trials with zinc deficient Asians whose genome also has more ACE2 receptors so they would experience rapid widespread infections. The thought was that this disease would have a huge Infection Fatality Rate, Whereas it is hugely less than influenza if patients 80+ with comorbidities are not considered. As those with poor innate immune systems either die or recover with immunity - the disease will run its course. It is close to that point now with less and less susceptible people to infect - which is called herd immunity. Infection in London probably reached the highest in UK at around 15% by May. I honestly couldn't disagree more with all you say regarding this subject Naut, with the greatest respect. At least this isn't an echo chamber.... Echo chambers are always doomed to failure because their approach to truth cannot deal with the possibility of being wrong. Thus nothing is rigorously tested as is required in science. When one cannot accept the possibility that one's Dogma is centered around the wrong dog, then in a scientific sense, one is f_cked. I am not trained in medicine, but Naut's thesis would seem to be very important. We know that human populations (or parts thereof) have certain levels of natural or acquired immunity to various viruses ... and science is only now scratching the surface. Both smallpox and mumps are caused by viruses. As a child I was declared immune to mumps. I'm sure I'm not the only one. While currently declared eradicated, there is literature attempting to determine levels of natural immunity to the smallpox virus in the general population (just in case). Flu viruses mutate frequently and regularly affect large parts of the population ... and yet there seem to be many (myself included) that never get the flu. Is this natural or acquired immunity? And what proportion of the population has it? Enter Covid. Why are children so little affected? Why are there so many non-symptomatic minor cases in the young-to-middle-age population? Does this not suggest a potentially high level of natural immunity or resistance (yours truly included)? Maybe those susceptible to serious effects are not 5%. Maybe it's 10%. Maybe it's higher. But the important point that many of the virologists-in-charge seem to be missing is that this is a natural check on how far serious cases can spread ... and that, if true, and widely disseminated, provides a check on the crazy fear (and associated stampede) that allows authoritarians to exploit this disease for their own purposes. Current policy (and the message) in many places seems akin to: "You're all gona die if you don't follow our draconian rules." Until they establish a reasonable penetration rare, they are stuck. How much data are required?
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