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Post by nautonnier on Aug 19, 2020 17:06:23 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 19, 2020 17:07:14 GMT
Not sure why, but it has disappeared from both the GFS and the European this morning. Anyone know what happened?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 19, 2020 17:08:29 GMT
First time I have seen NHC start talking about a tropical storm while it is still over the Sahara
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 20, 2020 3:06:08 GMT
The couple whose airbnb we are staying in here in Apalachicola lost their original place to Michael (2018). It's NE quarter funneled a 9+ foot wall of water up their local estuary and took out their old house, which was on a ground-level slab. Their rebuild is now 20-feet in the air ... marvelous views. If it gets that high, the whole populated portion of the county may go under. Drove up the coastal highway toward Panama City across Michael ground zero. Almost two years and they are still in repair mode ... and new construction still going up. Molon labe on the hurricane front. And some day it will ... and the next day we will build it again, and issue the same challenge. That is the same force that drove our horse-mounted cattle-driving forebears off the Pontic Steppe into the far reaches of Western Europe and later to and across the North American continent. And do we really think that a bad cold/flu with a few extra casualties is going to stop them? They left hundreds of thousands of their own graves in their wake (perhaps millions). And if it does then perhaps we deserve to be buried. For those who wish to channel this egalitarian flood to their own ends, let them know that they should stand aside ... or be buried in its passage. They are NOT the future.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2020 14:41:57 GMT
Glen - about the drywall in your garage..... perhaps leave it till November?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 20, 2020 15:45:00 GMT
The couple whose airbnb we are staying in here in Apalachicola lost their original place to Michael (2018). It's NE quarter funneled a 9+ foot wall of water up their local estuary and took out their old house, which was on a ground-level slab. Their rebuild is now 20-feet in the air ... marvelous views. If it gets that high, the whole populated portion of the county may go under. Drove up the coastal highway toward Panama City across Michael ground zero. Almost two years and they are still in repair mode ... and new construction still going up. Molon labe on the hurricane front. And some day it will ... and the next day we will build it again, and issue the same challenge. That is the same force that drove our horse-mounted cattle-driving forebears off the Pontic Steppe into the far reaches of Western Europe and later to and across the North American continent. And do we really think that a bad cold/flu with a few extra casualties is going to stop them? They left hundreds of thousands of their own graves in their wake (perhaps millions). And if it does then perhaps we deserve to be buried. For those who wish to channel this egalitarian flood to their own ends, let them know that they should stand aside ... or be buried in its passage. They are NOT the future. West of Panama City the drive is very interesting. One observers the rebuilt structures verses the previous. There are a lot of "high rise" homes with the 1st floor 15-20' above ground level. The most interesting ones I observed used concrete pillars as the support mechanism. Wonder how far the pile driver drove them?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2020 17:19:22 GMT
The couple whose airbnb we are staying in here in Apalachicola lost their original place to Michael (2018). It's NE quarter funneled a 9+ foot wall of water up their local estuary and took out their old house, which was on a ground-level slab. Their rebuild is now 20-feet in the air ... marvelous views. If it gets that high, the whole populated portion of the county may go under. Drove up the coastal highway toward Panama City across Michael ground zero. Almost two years and they are still in repair mode ... and new construction still going up. Molon labe on the hurricane front. And some day it will ... and the next day we will build it again, and issue the same challenge. That is the same force that drove our horse-mounted cattle-driving forebears off the Pontic Steppe into the far reaches of Western Europe and later to and across the North American continent. And do we really think that a bad cold/flu with a few extra casualties is going to stop them? They left hundreds of thousands of their own graves in their wake (perhaps millions). And if it does then perhaps we deserve to be buried. For those who wish to channel this egalitarian flood to their own ends, let them know that they should stand aside ... or be buried in its passage. They are NOT the future. West of Panama City the drive is very interesting. One observers the rebuilt structures verses the previous. There are a lot of "high rise" homes with the 1st floor 15-20' above ground level. The most interesting ones I observed used concrete pillars as the support mechanism. Wonder how far the pile driver drove them? The video I saw said that they were 40FT pilings so 20 to 30ft deep. The area under the house was used for storage of non-valuable things and parking space with the walls between the pilings 'frangible' so they would break away easily in a storm surge meaning that little or no pressure would be on the building itself.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2020 17:22:33 GMT
One for Glen and one for Mr Phydeaux
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2020 18:06:33 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 20, 2020 20:35:13 GMT
The video I saw said that they were 40FT pilings so 20 to 30ft deep. The area under the house was used for storage of non-valuable things and parking space with the walls between the pilings 'frangible' so they would break away easily in a storm surge meaning that little or no pressure would be on the building itself.
That's code now for "beachfront" property on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. My house is about 150 yards from the beach, on a 15 foot natural rise. It sits on 30 foot pilings driven 20 feet into the ground, so the bottom of my first floor is 25 ft above mean sea level. The under level is used for storage (I keep my crawfish pots down there), and has lattice around the edges. The windows are all double panes, argon filled with exterior storm shutters. The roof is strapped on in some crazy fashion. All code since Katrina. The pilings are concrete. Mine have a brick facade.
Katrina's surge at my location was 29 feet, on top of which you had, of course, waves driven by the wind. I'm pretty sure my house won't survive another Katrina. Pretty good chance I'll have something to work with after a CAT 2, and maybe a lesser CAT 3. Who knows. I may find out next week.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2020 21:02:24 GMT
The video I saw said that they were 40FT pilings so 20 to 30ft deep. The area under the house was used for storage of non-valuable things and parking space with the walls between the pilings 'frangible' so they would break away easily in a storm surge meaning that little or no pressure would be on the building itself. That's code now for "beachfront" property on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. My house is about 150 yards from the beach, on a 15 foot natural rise. It sits on 30 foot pilings driven 20 feet into the ground, so the bottom of my first floor is 25 ft above mean sea level. The under level is used for storage (I keep my crawfish pots down there), and has lattice around the edges. The windows are all double panes, argon filled with exterior storm shutters. The roof is strapped on in some crazy fashion. All code since Katrina. The pilings are concrete. Mine have a brick facade. Katrina's surge at my location was 29 feet, on top of which you had, of course, waves driven by the wind. I'm pretty sure my house won't survive another Katrina. Pretty good chance I'll have something to work with after a CAT 2, and maybe a lesser CAT 3. Who knows. I may find out next week. I checked the Cat 5 Storm surge maps before I decided where to locate to the house I am in now - I am around 4 miles inland of that surge. So I hope that being strapped to a concrete float will do My roof is also strapped to the house. The rebar in the concrete float is welded to rebar rods that run up through the concrete blocks around a foot apart. When they get to roof level the rods are welded to flat straps that run over the marine ply roof base (which is stupidly thick). The straps are then welded to the rebar rods on the other side of the roof. While this gives confidence that the roof will stay on the house - it creates a very effective Faraday cage that significantly attenuates cell phone signals. When the purveyors of 5G cellular started nosing around and talking of putting their cell repeaters on every other street light. I pointed out that we had many more trees than street lights (5G is blocked by wet leaves) and that the houses were Faraday cages. After that the 5G people retired hurt
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 22, 2020 13:45:17 GMT
I don't much like the look of the wandering about at the end of the forecast - looks suspiciously like Harvey And Laura has been shifting westward and now arrives on the North Gulf coast while Marco is doing a Harvey wander. This could be quite interesting for Gulf shores of Western LA or South Eastern TX both storms will be there at the same time
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 23, 2020 15:26:11 GMT
From my vantage in Mississippi, the forecasts on these two storms have been all over the place. Marco is just 30 hours away from landfall, and the cone o' death keeps shifting with every advisory. I awoke this morning to a bullseye forecast on the Pearl River, 20 miles west of here. Friday he was going to Texas. That's a pretty big miss over a 36 hour period. Now they are saying a 6 foot surge and 50 mph winds with 65 mph gusts at my house. Time to move the patio furniture in!
In the past 24 hours, Laura has been forecast to hit Houston and then a sudden 250 mile eastward forecast shift last night had it in NOLA on Wednesday. This morning, Lafayette, La. is in her cross-hairs, with Laura land-falling as a CAT 2. Laura's intensity forecast has been all over the place as well.
I assume without knowing that the forecast issues arise from the proximity of the storms. That has to have some affect on their movement. I'll also be curious to see if Marco's passage in GOM doesn't lessen Laura's intensity. None of the forecast discussions address that possibility. I have seen it mentioned in other years that a storms passage affects the heat content of the water over which it moves. I guess that's not a thing with these storms even though they are moving through the same area of the Gulf, just two days apart.
Ought to be a fun week I'll see you all on the other side! Wait. Before I go--A man walks into a Bourbon St. bar. "I'll have a Corona and two hurricanes," he tells the bartender, who replies, "that'll be $20.20." Rimshot, please!
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 23, 2020 15:27:04 GMT
From NOAA "This year, we expect more, stronger and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA's threshold for an extremely active season," Gerry Bell, a lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said.
This season has already broken records over average hurricane seasons, with nine named storms already formed in 2020.
Most hurricane storm seasons only produce two named storms by early August, with the ninth named storm typically appearing by around Oct. 4, according to NOAA historical records.I haven't done any analytical analysis and perhaps I'm jumping the gun ... but it seems that, to date (late August), this forecast may have overplayed its hand? September will have to be really busy and strong. I am NOT trying to provoke Mother Nature. Historical from Wiki.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 23, 2020 17:44:20 GMT
From my vantage in Mississippi, the forecasts on these two storms have been all over the place. Marco is just 30 hours away from landfall, and the cone o' death keeps shifting with every advisory. I awoke this morning to a bullseye forecast on the Pearl River, 20 miles west of here. Friday he was going to Texas. That's a pretty big miss over a 36 hour period. Now they are saying a 6 foot surge and 50 mph winds with 65 mph gusts at my house. Time to move the patio furniture in! In the past 24 hours, Laura has been forecast to hit Houston and then a sudden 250 mile eastward forecast shift last night had it in NOLA on Wednesday. This morning, Lafayette, La. is in her cross-hairs, with Laura land-falling as a CAT 2. Laura's intensity forecast has been all over the place as well. I assume without knowing that the forecast issues arise from the proximity of the storms. That has to have some affect on their movement. I'll also be curious to see if Marco's passage in GOM doesn't lessen Laura's intensity. None of the forecast discussions address that possibility. I have seen it mentioned in other years that a storms passage affects the heat content of the water over which it moves. I guess that's not a thing with these storms even though they are moving through the same area of the Gulf, just two days apart. Ought to be a fun week I'll see you all on the other side! Wait. Before I go--A man walks into a Bourbon St. bar. "I'll have a Corona and two hurricanes," he tells the bartender, who replies, "that'll be $20.20." Rimshot, please! Marco - now heading for NOLA the median track in the ensemble would not be good as it could lead to flooding from surge and wind into Lake Pontchartrain which would be in the NW quadrant of highest winds - but the forecast has firmed up and no longer has the Harvey style wander after landfall Laura is currently tracking along Cuba which will weaken the storm but its track will then be North West until it turns toward somewhere between Beaumont TX and Lake Charles LA Mr Phydeaux the hurricanes extract a huge amount of energy from the sea surface - to quote NASA Engineering Toolbox - each storm will each day be extracting around 200 times the world's total electricity generation capacity or to quote NOAA " A hurricane can release the same amount of energy as the explosion of a 10-megaton nuke every 20 minutes" pick whichever units you favor. They do leave a snail trail of colder surface water that may be visible on satellite. Unfortunately, Laura is chasing Marco but not really following the same track so there will be no weakening of the second storm. It also looks like there will be around 48 hours between the storms from the current forecasts. Laura is unlikely to speed up over Cuba.
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