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Post by nautonnier on Jul 21, 2020 17:04:25 GMT
Joe Bastardi on the impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on tropical storms and risk of landfall -
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 22, 2020 17:49:03 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 22, 2020 18:09:50 GMT
Just for posterity.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 23, 2020 12:08:42 GMT
Here is the storm that is running just South of Cuba over Jamaica. Despite some of the lurid colors the European models have the storm dissipating and breaking up whereas the NCEP models forecast strengthening.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 25, 2020 13:18:52 GMT
It looks like Texas will move seamlessly from permanent life threatening drought to floods for a week
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 25, 2020 15:27:19 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 25, 2020 22:12:06 GMT
I don't know if I have a little PTSD from Harvey three years ago but Hanna is absolutely dumping some rain on us now. Despite coming ashore well to our south. People who have never been through one may not realize how broad the effects can be on the east side of a storm. The bands just keep training from over the warm moist gulf waters.
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Post by flearider on Jul 26, 2020 13:55:38 GMT
just had a look don't see a problem ? bit windy .. but in nov dec i go fishing in that ..
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 26, 2020 15:50:07 GMT
just had a look don't see a problem ? bit windy .. but in nov dec i go fishing in that .. I must admit that having spent time on the coast of NW Scotland the winds in TS and CAT-1 hurricanes are not anything to write home about. However, the problem that they do have is the occasional tornado spinning up and it is often those that cause the most damage. I remember a few years back after a hurricane passed through Orlando, driving on a flyover near Kissimee and seeing a neat curved line around 5 rooftops wide of blue roof tarps over the red roofs. A bit stronger and it might have been a track of destroyed houses.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 27, 2020 14:28:59 GMT
So will this go into the Gulf or is Cape Hatteras going to get it again?
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 27, 2020 14:36:32 GMT
For the statisticians...
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Post by youngjasper on Jul 28, 2020 0:40:13 GMT
Naut, very interesting map. Thanks.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 28, 2020 1:02:56 GMT
So will this go into the Gulf or is Cape Hatteras going to get it again? It has fish storm written all over it. But Hatteras may get a close sweep like it has hundreds of times before...
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 28, 2020 1:05:53 GMT
For the statisticians... Great graphic Nat. Thanks for posting it. From the map it looks like my county (Galveston) is tied with a handful of other Parishes in Louisiana and counties in North Carolina for second place in number of hits behind that area in S. Florida.
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Post by duwayne on Jul 28, 2020 14:33:54 GMT
For the statisticians... Interesting map. Shouldn't the Florida Keys be colored red since they are part of Monroe County?
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