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Post by nautonnier on Jul 31, 2020 18:57:48 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 1, 2020 1:57:18 GMT
It seems that Isaias will be a coast crawl like Matthew
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 1, 2020 14:24:50 GMT
Closest point of approach to Florida is just offshore here - however that would mean being in the western quadrants which are less of a problem. However, the wave action will cause more beach erosion which the East Florida coast does not need. Some peninsulas are getting close to turning into a chain of islands.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 3, 2020 7:56:21 GMT
A bit breezy but Isaias is a little disorganized going past me now
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Post by Ratty on Aug 3, 2020 11:25:36 GMT
A bit breezy but Isaias is a little disorganized going past me now Looks like you were right about the path, Naut. I hear media companies are disappointed.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 3, 2020 12:11:33 GMT
A bit breezy but Isaias is a little disorganized going past me now Looks like you were right about the path, Naut. I hear media companies are disappointed. Yes, earlier this morning at first light they cut to a reporter well practiced in standing on various beaches at 45 degrees shouting hoarsely into the wind. He was on Jacksonville beach wrapped up with hood and googles. Unfortunately, the storm did not attend however there were several people walking normally on the beach in shorts and t-shirts.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 3, 2020 12:14:30 GMT
Closest point of approach to Florida is just offshore here - however that would mean being in the western quadrants which are less of a problem. However, the wave action will cause more beach erosion which the East Florida coast does not need. Some peninsulas are getting close to turning into a chain of islands. That's what coastal sand deposits do ... they shift.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 3, 2020 12:20:29 GMT
Closest point of approach to Florida is just offshore here - however that would mean being in the western quadrants which are less of a problem. However, the wave action will cause more beach erosion which the East Florida coast does not need. Some peninsulas are getting close to turning into a chain of islands. That's what coastal sand deposits do ... they shift.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 9, 2020 19:07:29 GMT
Faites vos jeux "ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Berg"
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 9, 2020 20:03:31 GMT
Neither the GFS or ECMWF do much with this system. Neither have it reaching 60W intact. But, things change.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 10, 2020 14:16:06 GMT
Almost finished repairing my Isaias damage. Had a large branch fall on our fence. Took out 20' and three posts. I hate digging post holes. I see that both of the weather guys I follow are getting very excited about the next month or two. I hope they are wrong.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 10, 2020 14:49:09 GMT
Almost finished repairing my Isaias damage. Had a large branch fall on our fence. Took out 20' and three posts. I hate digging post holes. I see that both of the weather guys I follow are getting very excited about the next month or two. I hope they are wrong. I get that feeling too. You will have seen upthread what Joe Bastardi is thinking about the target areas. The one thing I got used to living on the West coast of Scotland was the wind. Average wind speed 30kts it felt strange when there was a wind less than 15kts. When we first arrived in Scotland from Germany apart from the 10C drop in temperature, we wondered why the fences had these ugly braces at 45deg on both sides of the fence. We soon found out. Nothing like an 'extreme storm force 12' to clear the air and unlike the hurricane's in FL the air temp can be 3C not 30C. So everything that was loose blew away several years ago. What trees there were grew to 5 feet or so then permanently bent over as if still being blown by the ambient winds. You parked facing into wind so the car door was not pulled out of your grip; avoided opening a door that was into wind - a neighbor did that and two of his back windows blew out, another lifted his garage door and the roof and 3 courses of brick lifted off and landed in his back yard. Everyone learns from these and carry on going to work just the same But you get a relatively low gale force wind in an area that is not used to having winds and all sorts of damage happens trees and fences down, roofs off etc. So I hope that the tracks of the storms are more average and we don't get the townies in the NYC tri-state area getting all dramatic and over excitedly calling a relatively minor tropical storm a 'super storm'
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 10, 2020 19:41:05 GMT
and remember Naut lower temperature increase the density of air it is more impactful.
If you are so fortunate as to have sailed, 15C change in air temperature is a code change in sail selection for the same wind speed.
its a trap for young players.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 11, 2020 0:59:31 GMT
and remember Naut lower temperature increase the density of air it is more impactful. If you are so fortunate as to have sailed, 15C change in air temperature is a code change in sail selection for the same wind speed. its a trap for young players. Ahhh, sailing. I never mastered that fine art, but what a rush. Many years ago, a retired artillery Major, pilot and master sailor took me under tutelage and kicked my butt around an Alberg 35 sloop until I could handle it at all points of sail under a "normal" range of "tropical" conditions. Strong Trades and squalls, but no major blows. An absolutely visceral rush.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 11, 2020 2:34:08 GMT
I love to sail. Am starting to look for a 26' Hunter.
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