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Post by duwayne on Aug 12, 2015 13:35:29 GMT
The Hadcrut4 June anomalies are finally available, so here’s the quarterly update of my 2007 global warming forecast covering the average values from 2007 to mid-2015. Global warming is as predicted for the Hadcrut4 anomaly and the RSS satellite-based anomaly is 0.1C cooler than predicted. Over the past 6 months both MVENSO and PDO have been quite warm and as a result, each is about 0.2 above my prediction. Global temperatures have been flat for several years and a cool Ocean Current phase is the logical explanation. But the recent warm MVENSO and PDO raises the possibility that the cool phase is ending short of the 30-year term which history has shown we should expect. At this point there’s not enough understanding of the Ocean Current mechanisms to prove it one way or the other. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next 2 or 3 years and beyond. One key thing to watch is whether the RSS anomalies begin to turn up sharply in response to a possible long term change in the Ocean Currents and remain high 3 or 4 months after the current El Nino conditions end. Duwayne, I see you're still earning that gold star. :-) Maybe I missed something you mentioned earlier, but when you use the term "cool ocean current phase" what exactly are you including in that term? ENSO? AMO? PDO? A combination thereof? Something else altogether? Thanks! Throttleup, thanks. There's a 60-year cycle in global temperatures and as I've shown in past posts it correlates well with the AMO and PDO. And ENSO is mostly positive during the warm part of the cycle and mostly negative duing the cool part. So all 3 seem to be contributing. In addition some of the other ocean currents seem to fit into the pattern but their relationship is not as distinct.
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Post by throttleup on Aug 12, 2015 22:28:54 GMT
Duwayne, I see you're still earning that gold star. :-) Maybe I missed something you mentioned earlier, but when you use the term "cool ocean current phase" what exactly are you including in that term? ENSO? AMO? PDO? A combination thereof? Something else altogether? Thanks! Throttleup, thanks. There's a 60-year cycle in global temperatures and as I've shown in past posts it correlates well with the AMO and PDO. And ENSO is mostly positive during the warm part of the cycle and mostly negative duing the cool part. So all 3 seem to be contributing. In addition some of the other ocean currents seem to fit into the pattern but their relationship is not as distinct. Duwayne, Thanks! I'm not as well-versed on this as others so bear with me. Granted, we are on the cusp of what appears to be a significant el Nino (although others have commented it has odd things about it). We'll have to watch to see where that goes. But the AMO is "past its peak," is it not? I guess one question is, does AMO = PDO = ENSO? That is, do they all contribute to global temps equally? I would guess PDO/ENSO would have a greater effect simply due to being in the large Pacific. But the PDO is really just a spatial distribution of temps, isn't it? So, my brain wants to think there's a net zero contribution from the PDO. Yes, the el Nino/la Niñas bunch together cyclically, but individual events are not all that long-lasting. But the AMO cycle is of a longer duration before it switches phases -- so I guess I tend to think that it will have a noticeable effect as it slides deeper into its cool phase. All non-distinct notes, duwayne! Sorry about that. Comment as you can or see fit. Your posts are always of interest. (along with everyone else's!).
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Post by duwayne on Aug 13, 2015 13:08:02 GMT
Duwayne, Thanks! I'm not as well-versed on this as others so bear with me. Granted, we are on the cusp of what appears to be a significant el Nino (although others have commented it has odd things about it). We'll have to watch to see where that goes. But the AMO is "past its peak," is it not? I guess one question is, does AMO = PDO = ENSO? That is, do they all contribute to global temps equally? I would guess PDO/ENSO would have a greater effect simply due to being in the large Pacific. But the PDO is really just a spatial distribution of temps, isn't it? So, my brain wants to think there's a net zero contribution from the PDO. Yes, the el Nino/la Niñas bunch together cyclically, but individual events are not all that long-lasting. But the AMO cycle is of a longer duration before it switches phases -- so I guess I tend to think that it will have a noticeable effect as it slides deeper into its cool phase. All non-distinct notes, duwayne! Sorry about that. Comment as you can or see fit. Your posts are always of interest. (along with everyone else's!). Throttleup, these are good questions. I wish I had the answers. I can see the 60-year cycle in the past Ocean Current data and that adds to my confidence that there is a 60-year cycle in the global temperatures. But like the Solar 11-year cycle, the mechanisms aren't so clear.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 13, 2015 14:57:55 GMT
One caution. There is a tendency to look for patterns in data. A chaotic system may exhibit a repeating pattern as it orbits an attractor then as a condition changes and it nears another attractor it may suddenly flip to a new state and orbit that attractor instead with a different emergent behavior. With a repeat time of every 60 years - the climate has only done that particular orbit just over 130 times in the Holocene, not really a lot. Interglacials are not long we may be due to go back to the full glacial attractor. So pattern matching in a chaotic system works until it doesn't ;-)
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 13, 2015 16:48:23 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 14, 2015 0:50:36 GMT
One caution. There is a tendency to look for patterns in data. A chaotic system may exhibit a repeating pattern as it orbits an attractor then as a condition changes and it nears another attractor it may suddenly flip to a new state and orbit that attractor instead with a different emergent behavior. With a repeat time of every 60 years - the climate has only done that particular orbit just over 130 times in the Holocene, not really a lot. Interglacials are not long we may be due to go back to the full glacial attractor. So pattern matching in a chaotic system works until it doesn't ;-) Well said Naut. You've put into words what I have tried to explain for years. I tell 'em the the Earth is not a greenhouse, but an extremely complex & chaotic circulatory system that is impossible to model. I say it's subject to a multitude of competing influences, each of which has the ability to affect others in a chaotic fashion.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 14, 2015 2:35:36 GMT
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Post by fredzl4dh on Aug 14, 2015 12:04:29 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Aug 14, 2015 15:13:46 GMT
Global record temps for july ( by quite a margin on JMA!)
JMA go for; 1st. 2015 (+0.38°C) 2nd. 1998 (+0.30°C) 3rd. 2014 (+0.28°C) 4th. 2010, 2005 (+0.24°C)
and GISS;
2015: +0.75C 2011: +0.74C 2009: +0.72C 1998: +0.71C 2005: +0.66C
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Post by acidohm on Aug 14, 2015 15:39:38 GMT
I wish we had better then av temps where I live :-(
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 14, 2015 16:30:13 GMT
First time I'd seen lunar cycles compared to the climate record ... and never once a mention of the sun. Quite interesting. One more website to monitor and compare. Thank you.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 14, 2015 16:36:20 GMT
I wish we had better then av temps where I live :-( Cough ... cough! Ya may be on the 'bleeding edge' of that downward trend he pointed to. Pass the hat for a heavier winter coat for the queen. Kind of disappointed that he didn't talk about the AMOC.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 15, 2015 3:57:05 GMT
Global record temps for july ( by quite a margin on JMA!) JMA go for; 1st. 2015 (+0.38°C) 2nd. 1998 (+0.30°C) 3rd. 2014 (+0.28°C) 4th. 2010, 2005 (+0.24°C) and GISS; 2015: +0.75C 2011: +0.74C 2009: +0.72C 1998: +0.71C 2005: +0.66C What is the error bars in those numbers Graywolf.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 15, 2015 3:58:09 GMT
Oh wait, they are all the same number!!!! Phew, I thought something was actually happening.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 15, 2015 5:11:20 GMT
Wow rising at 1C per century just in those numbers sounds like business as usual since LIA.
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