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Post by sigurdur on Dec 19, 2016 15:21:14 GMT
Life is good. As we observe the slow decline of Arctic Ice, the Earth is singing songs of joy. People aren't as cold, even those enduring energy poverty because of the Green Future.
Folks bellies are full, cheapest food ever. Hydro carbon based fuels are low priced so that folks can afford to go to work if they have a job.
President Elect Trump will receive a majority of votes today in the Electoral College. While this is just a USA election, the USA is still the big person on the block. Leading indicators, after the Nov 8th Election are very positive. The thing that will hold back a rising global economy is the current level of debt the USA has. This is a huge, HUGE drag and may very well prevent the world from rising to heights not observed in the past.
Hopefully the trend in Arctic ice continues, allowing ocean cargo to change routes and become less expensive.
The Sahara desert is slowly shrinking. This will provide stability to that presently arid area.
A lot of pluses are on the horizon!!!
(Unless you are a farmer, then it sucks!)
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Dec 19, 2016 15:26:09 GMT
Graywolf,
You say that Arctic area bereft of ice take up heat. I suppose this might be possible in the summer, but in the winter, I would argue that ice free areas allow quite a bit of heat to escape from the ocean into the atmosphere. Ice with snow on top is an effective insulator keeping the heat in. Area's of open water would allow ocean heat to escape into the atmosphere. And then into space.
A negative reinforcement. Something that you would expect from a stable system. This would suggest that there is no "Tipping point", quite the opposite actually.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 19, 2016 16:05:44 GMT
Code: That has always been a concern of mine. The largest problem, to me, is the lack of historical PH levels to compare.
Rising temperature is generally a good thing. Disruption of ocean PH is a bad thing.
The variation in PH levels, example Pudget Sound, are so large that it is hard to get a reliable handle on what is actually happening.
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Post by Ratty on Dec 19, 2016 16:56:25 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Dec 19, 2016 17:13:03 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Dec 19, 2016 17:32:45 GMT
Code: That has always been a concern of mine. The largest problem, to me, is the lack of historical PH levels to compare. Rising temperature is generally a good thing. Disruption of ocean PH is a bad thing. The variation in PH levels, example Pudget Sound, are so large that it is hard to get a reliable handle on what is actually happening. Add to that, fishermen are the worst source. The unfortunate fact is that overfishing determinations by management agencies is mostly determined based upon catch rates. So if fishing is slow fishermen start blaming it on anything and everything but themselves because there are going to be a lot of environmentalists up their butts. Just the way it is. Fact is its a very interesting science question with most experiments showing that the addition of carbon to the ocean promotes ocean life as we would normally expect. Even experiments with crustaceans have shown a boost in growth rates. The theory of acidification dissolving their shells is just not supported by evidence. Certainly like CO2 changing surface temperature is a very good possibility if you want to blind yourself to any and all contrary facts. This is deserving of more study but like Judith Curry is maintaining on her website its probably time that direction regarding what to study should become a government priority with their funding. That has its own problems as you have the case of Al Gore firing one of the top atmospheric scientists of the modern era, Will Happer, back at the beginning of his vice presidency for not quietly accepting what Al Gore believed.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 19, 2016 17:33:30 GMT
I clicked on the link Ratty, and it popped right up! Your Aussie govt must have decided that it didn't want you to observe Sea Surface Temps? Maybe a cost cutting measure perhaps?
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Post by icefisher on Dec 19, 2016 17:37:02 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Dec 19, 2016 22:53:48 GMT
Thanks all. I've tried IceFisher's links in Firefox, Chrome and M$ Edge. All give their own versions of "timed out". Can't see anything in security settings. I have the same issue with three laptops, my "smart" phone and a tablet. Currently looking at my router ..... will report back.
Sig's on the right track, I think. It's the government, they have me on a denier list.
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Post by graywolf on Dec 20, 2016 17:47:37 GMT
www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/global-forecast-2017So the MetO are going for around what I've said and either fall third to 2015 or be in a battle for 2nd to this years final temps. What every agency seems to be signalling is that this run of 3 record years is due to the Naturals now augmenting the rate of warming and not working to pull them down? I also see a role for both the overheated pole adding into the warmth , even the records that cannot measure it directly as it's warmth impacts patterns below throughout the year (ice free areas can impact up to 1,500 km away so areas inside the measurement areas?) and the continued reduction in 'dimming' across the globe?( and the impact that has on solar reaching the ground/Ocean?). Then there are 'Black Swan' events? ( as Ted Scambos of NSIDC called the global low ice levels in November?) so another record year can also not be discounted should the Oddness in the Strat drive some whacked out pattern throughout the summer of 2017 super heating the Continents and pushing big anoms there as well as in the Oceans (LOL)
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Post by bryson on Dec 20, 2016 19:10:34 GMT
I think that cold and snow is not going to be as persistent this winter as was back in the winter of 2013-14, a milder weather pattern is coming to the eastern U.S from Christmas into January so will next winter feature more persistent extreme cold and snow like the winter of 2014 Theodore.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 20, 2016 21:42:16 GMT
Same in UK...jetstream has fired up, potentially a rather severe storm due x mas day :-(
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Post by Ratty on Dec 20, 2016 23:24:31 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 21, 2016 19:55:08 GMT
www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/global-forecast-2017So the MetO are going for around what I've said and either fall third to 2015 or be in a battle for 2nd to this years final temps. What every agency seems to be signalling is that this run of 3 record years is due to the Naturals now augmenting the rate of warming and not working to pull them down? I also see a role for both the overheated pole adding into the warmth , even the records that cannot measure it directly as it's warmth impacts patterns below throughout the year (ice free areas can impact up to 1,500 km away so areas inside the measurement areas?) and the continued reduction in 'dimming' across the globe?( and the impact that has on solar reaching the ground/Ocean?). Then there are 'Black Swan' events? ( as Ted Scambos of NSIDC called the global low ice levels in November?) so another record year can also not be discounted should the Oddness in the Strat drive some whacked out pattern throughout the summer of 2017 super heating the Continents and pushing big anoms there as well as in the Oceans (LOL) " the overheated pole adding into the warmth" It is this lack of logic that makes me lose faith in the 'we have got to say it is global warming' met office. (Admission: I worked for more than a decade closely with Met Office forecasters and later in a different existence very closely with the National Weather Service and Aviation Weather Service) I have a lot of respect with journeymen forecasters. I have none for the sit-in-an-office-play-computer-games-then-fudge-the-results-and-carefully-word-the-report climate 'scientists' who shelter behind the Met Office rapidly jading reputation. A warm Arctic (10 below instead of 30 below) is venting heat into the 24hr night atmosphere as fast as it can be radiated. There is no way that warmth at the Arctic can 'add warmth' to the globe. The poles are the exit for warmth to space if there is more warmth then more is exiting to space.<period> If the winds, as they are at the moment are distorted by Rossby waves so that they flow into the Arcitc (or Antarctic) then the heat they carry will vent to space. This will be faster than if the jet stream had been meridonal. So what are we seeing at the moment - Middle East extra cold, China extra cold, Japan extra cold, Pacific cold 'blob'. Northern USA extra cold, UK in the jet heading North is warm (ish)*** so the 'heat' is leaving for space and the cold (a lack of heat) has dropped South. Like the El Nino - what we are seeing is a cooling event being measured by the incorrect metric - Arctic Ice Extent. This extra loss of heat does not augur well for next year. ***I am not acclimatized yet having got here from Florida - but 34F in a cloying 'scotch mist' with a 15 knot wind is _cold_. It actually feels colder than when I worked in Labrador at minus 37F perhaps it's the humidity.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 22, 2016 0:57:47 GMT
www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/global-forecast-2017So the MetO are going for around what I've said and either fall third to 2015 or be in a battle for 2nd to this years final temps. What every agency seems to be signalling is that this run of 3 record years is due to the Naturals now augmenting the rate of warming and not working to pull them down? I also see a role for both the overheated pole adding into the warmth , even the records that cannot measure it directly as it's warmth impacts patterns below throughout the year (ice free areas can impact up to 1,500 km away so areas inside the measurement areas?) and the continued reduction in 'dimming' across the globe?( and the impact that has on solar reaching the ground/Ocean?). Then there are 'Black Swan' events? ( as Ted Scambos of NSIDC called the global low ice levels in November?) so another record year can also not be discounted should the Oddness in the Strat drive some whacked out pattern throughout the summer of 2017 super heating the Continents and pushing big anoms there as well as in the Oceans (LOL) " the overheated pole adding into the warmth" It is this lack of logic that makes me lose faith in the 'we have got to say it is global warming' met office. (Admission: I worked for more than a decade closely with Met Office forecasters and later in a different existence very closely with the National Weather Service and Aviation Weather Service) I have a lot of respect with journeymen forecasters. I have none for the sit-in-an-office-play-computer-games-then-fudge-the-results-and-carefully-word-the-report climate 'scientists' who shelter behind the Met Office rapidly jading reputation. A warm Arctic (10 below instead of 30 below) is venting heat into the 24hr night atmosphere as fast as it can be radiated. There is no way that warmth at the Arctic can 'add warmth' to the globe. The poles are the exit for warmth to space if there is more warmth then more is exiting to space.<period> If the winds, as they are at the moment are distorted by Rossby waves so that they flow into the Arcitc (or Antarctic) then the heat they carry will vent to space. This will be faster than if the jet stream had been meridonal. So what are we seeing at the moment - Middle East extra cold, China extra cold, Japan extra cold, Pacific cold 'blob'. Northern USA extra cold, UK in the jet heading North is warm (ish)*** so the 'heat' is leaving for space and the cold (a lack of heat) has dropped South. Like the El Nino - what we are seeing is a cooling event being measured by the incorrect metric - Arctic Ice Extent. This extra loss of heat does not augur well for next year. ***I am not acclimatized yet having got here from Florida - but 34F in a cloying 'scotch mist' with a 15 knot wind is _cold_. It actually feels colder than when I worked in Labrador at minus 37F perhaps it's the humidity. Invest in wool! Wool keeps you warmer even when damp. Combine with rain gear to keep it from getting soaked. Wool has hollow fibers that work very well. If you are soaked though there is a good avenue for heat to travel through the water. If you are dry or only damp the water path for heat loss is either not there or very thin.
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