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Post by Ratty on Jun 19, 2018 1:02:56 GMT
Just spotted this too ....
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 19, 2018 3:29:38 GMT
Dang, we lost 1st place???
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Post by Ratty on Jun 19, 2018 11:27:13 GMT
Dang, we lost 1st place??? Not everyone can be a winner, Sig. Nowdays, there are no losers. Everybody gets a ribbon.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 23, 2018 18:00:17 GMT
I’ve become kind of a a victim of my own success.
Back in 2007 on the old board I put forth a “formula” which could be used to calculate the predicted value for the average global temperature for 2007 to 2037. My original number was calculated to the nearest tenth of a degree.
As the years passed, the number was turning out to be impossibly accurate. For example, at year end 2017 the prediction from the formula and the actual average UAH6 global anomaly for 2007 to 2017 were exactly the same when carried out to 2 decimal places. In fact, the numbers were exactly the same at 3 decimal places, 0.184C.
This was fun to report but realistically this is an overstatement of both the expected accuracy of my prediction and the satellite measurement accuracy. And I find that people question whether I’m serious about my predictions when I carry the calculation out to even 2 decimal places.
Now here’s the problem, my prediction accuracy can only go downhill from here.
So from now on I’m going back to my original plan and predict and report in tenths of a degree. That should be close enough when some climate scientists are talking about temperature increases of several degrees.
This obviously makes my life easier. At this level of accuracy, I can tell you already with 99% certainty that my 2007 formula-based prediction versus actual at midyear and at the end of 2018 will be the same.
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 23, 2018 19:29:23 GMT
OK Dwayne, What is the your forcast for 2018, 2019 and 2020 Neil
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Post by Ratty on Jun 23, 2018 23:25:12 GMT
OK Dwayne, What is the your forcast for 2018, 2019 and 2020 Neil .... and 2100, please Duwayne.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 24, 2018 18:35:54 GMT
OK Dwayne, What is the your forcast for 2018, 2019 and 2020 Neil Neil,I haven't made any predictions of global temperature anomalies for single, individual years so far because they are so dependent on ENSO. Predicting the first half of 2018 is the first time I have tried this. All my other predictions have been for long term multi-year averages where short term ENSO oscillations are smoothed out. Although I now believe I may be able to predict near term ENSO to some degree, certainly better than NOAA so far, I'm going wait until I see if my ENSO predictions continue to be accurate before trying to predict global temperatures for individual years. It's actually kind of scary to think that it might be possible to accurately predict ENSO and possibly individual yearly global average temperatures.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 24, 2018 18:55:58 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jun 24, 2018 19:03:18 GMT
OK Dwayne, What is the your forcast for 2018, 2019 and 2020 Neil .... and 2100, please Duwayne. Ratty, I already predicted in 2007 (adjusted to match UAH6) that the average global temperature anomaly for 2067 to 2097 would be 0.7C based on a continued growth in atmospheric CO2 at the same rate as 2007. The temperature for the individual year 2100 will depend on ENSO and the growth in atmospheric CO2 but something under 1.0C for UAH6 seems likely to me.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 25, 2018 20:38:14 GMT
"Worse than they thought: Antarctica actually colder than scientists once believed Anthony Watts / 1 hour ago June 25, 2018 From the AGU and the “but, but, the continent is melting!” department. COLDEST PLACE ON EARTH IS COLDER THAN SCIENTISTS THOUGHT WASHINGTON — Tiny valleys near the top of Antarctica’s ice sheet reach temperatures of nearly minus 100 degrees Celsius (minus 148 degrees Fahrenheit) in the winter, a new study finds. The results could change scientists’ understanding of just how low temperatures can get at Earth’s surface, according to the researchers."wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/25/worse-than-they-thought-antarctica-actually-colder-than-scientists-once-believed/
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 26, 2018 11:40:35 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jun 27, 2018 0:11:27 GMT
[ Snipped tell-tale no-warming-in-Australia graphs ] Ratty, When I'm looking at these graphs am I suppose to just move my eyes or is OK if I move my head? Code, you have my explicit permission to move anything that takes your fancy. This one could serve as a combination graph to make it easier for you:
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Post by blustnmtn on Jun 27, 2018 12:53:56 GMT
[ Snipped tell-tale no-warming-in-Australia graphs ] Ratty, When I'm looking at these graphs am I suppose to just move my eyes or is OK if I move my head? Code, you have my explicit permission to move anything that takes your fancy. This one could serve as a combination graph to make it easier for you: That's frightening Ratty. I hope OZ survives.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 27, 2018 13:05:12 GMT
[ Snip ] That's frightening Ratty. I hope OZ survives. Thanks for your concern, Blue. Noted and appreciated ..... Hope it doesn't come to this:
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Post by Ratty on Jun 27, 2018 13:27:59 GMT
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