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Post by tacoman25 on Oct 23, 2008 16:54:21 GMT
Bravo!! That is precisely what I've been shouting for several months. Roy Spencer's latest article on PDO explains a lot as well. www.weatherquestions.com/Global-warming-natural-PDO.htmWe will not see the full effects of declining solar radiation absorption until the oceans have released sufficient heat. I'm still standing on my prediction of slipping temperatures beginning in mid-October, La Nina or not.So far, so good. Lower tropospheric temps have really taken a tumble the past few days. discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
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Post by ron on Oct 23, 2008 17:49:33 GMT
I've been looking at that data a lot over the last couple of weeks or so. The only warmth I see vs. the last 20 years has been in the chLT (I assume LT = Lower Troposphere). I was wondering why GLOBAL temps are higher when the NH is in summer. Is it because there's more land mass to heat and quickly radiate to the atmosphere compared to the larger oceanic coverage of the SH? TIA
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Post by Acolyte on Oct 23, 2008 20:19:39 GMT
aaaah thanks nauty - are those threads gone forever? Apparently they may have been captured on the Web archival sites such as Google - there is another thread somewhere here that gave some references - if I find it I'll hang it on here too. Try here - it was just up the page from your post.
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Post by twawki on Oct 23, 2008 22:46:15 GMT
Can across an interesting piece of info today "during El Ninos (1998 was a super El Nino) heat flows out of the ocean and into the air". If this is the case then if an El Nino coincides with a PDO shift to cooling phase which coincides with low solar output (minimum, or extended minimum as we are having) then the cooling effects would be amplified and not only would the oceans be cooling but also receiving less heat, meaning faster and more extended cooling. As the oceans drive the climate then this would mean the concurrent existence of all three drives a stronger cooling force that is not able to revert until the sun comes out of its slumber, increases TSI and reduces cloud cover. In the meantime we get a domino effect of increased cooling in the oceans and the atmosphere, growing polar icecaps, increased snowfall etc. Until the sun becomes strong enough to revert this signal (not looking likely at the moment) we stay in a cooling cycle. Bravo!! That is precisely what I've been shouting for several months. Roy Spencer's latest article on PDO explains a lot as well. www.weatherquestions.com/Global-warming-natural-PDO.htmWe will not see the full effects of declining solar radiation absorption until the oceans have released sufficient heat. I'm still standing on my prediction of slipping temperatures beginning in mid-October, La Nina or not. There will be monthly blips of slight warming as the oceans belch out heat in phases, but overall cooling will be the dominant factor. Is PDO and solar minimum mutually exclusive? No matter, it all appears to center around the oceans ability to store and accumulate heat. Stop replenishing it, and it is only a matter of time before the rest of ~30% of earth's surface begins to cool. Just because certain arrogant solar scientists dismiss the sun does not make it true. There are other well qualified scientists who disagree with their peers. We simply don't have enough understanding of earth and sun climate mechanisms to know yet. It is getting old listening to some solar scientists writing off the sun. Hey Mag yeah Im with you on this one. Think the cooling is setting in and will take a while for the oceans to reheat up especially if we are entering low solar cycles as well as keep going on a protracted minimum. SOI continues to track strongly positive so the strength of the next la nina will be significant in all of this. Here is Oz I think we are in for some interesting months ahead with rain and cyclone activity building.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 23, 2008 22:53:10 GMT
Except in poor Victoria - All those La Ninas dumping the rain on the East coast, then crossing the great divide & dumping warm dry air on poor ole Vic.
Any hope for us shrivelling dry down here?
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Post by magellan on Oct 23, 2008 23:18:56 GMT
Per Roy Spencer Don’t trust the NOAA-15 AMSU data for channel 6 or “LT”…channel 6 has a calibration drift, and LT is also affected by that.
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Post by twawki on Oct 24, 2008 0:11:24 GMT
Except in poor Victoria - All those La Ninas dumping the rain on the East coast, then crossing the great divide & dumping warm dry air on poor ole Vic. Any hope for us shrivelling dry down here? yeah water runs downhill so if you connect to us up here in sydney we can pipe it to you down there in melbourne or else just spend $2 billion on a desal plant like us so that it will be finished just as dams are full
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 24, 2008 1:02:55 GMT
Here the rains will come after the pipeline to steal water from the Murray Darling & the Desal plant are both finished - means several years more drought!
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Post by woodstove on Oct 24, 2008 16:43:59 GMT
Roy Spencer told me the same thing about the improperly calibrated channels. On the other hand, I think it's fair to look at all of them for trends... ;D
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Post by Acolyte on Oct 24, 2008 21:07:51 GMT
Here the rains will come after the pipeline to steal water from the Murray Darling & the Desal plant are both finished - means several years more drought! Some time back, before IPCC became Gods, it was proposed to help Melbourne with water problems & incidentally the rest of Victoria, we should cover the irrigation channels. The cost was less than they are proposing for the desal plant, without the attendant side effects of heat-polluting Bass Strait, & would have saved each year more water than Melbourne uses in 6 months. (I think that was the time frame) No go for common sense - let's just let all that water evapourate out of our system & blow away. Now they want to run a pipeline from an area already suffering water problems of its own? AND probably kill off the fishing industry in Bass Strait?
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Post by twawki on Oct 24, 2008 22:14:04 GMT
Here the rains will come after the pipeline to steal water from the Murray Darling & the Desal plant are both finished - means several years more drought! Some time back, before IPCC became Gods, it was proposed to help Melbourne with water problems & incidentally the rest of Victoria, we should cover the irrigation channels. The cost was less than they are proposing for the desal plant, without the attendant side effects of heat-polluting Bass Strait, & would have saved each year more water than Melbourne uses in 6 months. (I think that was the time frame) No go for common sense - let's just let all that water evapourate out of our system & blow away. Now they want to run a pipeline from an area already suffering water problems of its own? AND probably kill off the fishing industry in Bass Strait? Its about mismanagement and greed. The water utilities are seen by the government not as a service but as a cash cow. Sydney water repeatedly has its coffers raided by the State Government. By causing fear and alarmism they feel they have the excuse to raise water taxes - so that the desal plant while making the constituents poorer provides a product to make the governments richer. It has very little to do with water conservation or environmentalism.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 24, 2008 22:37:16 GMT
I thought desal plant was run by reverse osmosis, so environmental damage is mainly high saline stream fed back to sea.
The energy is used to pressurise the salt water to squeeze the frresh water through the semipermeable membrane. I'd assume the pumps would be air cooled. So no heat issue for Bass straight?
Be simpler to pipe the water from Tassie & pump any surplus back over the great divide. THAT would be a good use for the pipeline.
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Post by Acolyte on Oct 24, 2008 23:08:01 GMT
You're right, they're using reverse osmosis. Last I heard of the idea they'd been talking about using a power system.
I use reverse osmosis for all my consumable water - after reading about fluoride effects I decided I didn't want that crap in my body. So I much appreiciate that, after passing the water through the filter - which automatically makes it pure water, as only H2O and smaller atoms can pass the filter, they are going to 'treat the water' to bring it up to 'Australian standard'
In other words, add back in all those pollutants the government has decided we need to have. Apparently pure water isn't good enough for us...?
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Post by magellan on Oct 28, 2008 22:53:27 GMT
Bravo!! That is precisely what I've been shouting for several months. Roy Spencer's latest article on PDO explains a lot as well. www.weatherquestions.com/Global-warming-natural-PDO.htmWe will not see the full effects of declining solar radiation absorption until the oceans have released sufficient heat. I'm still standing on my prediction of slipping temperatures beginning in mid-October, La Nina or not. There will be monthly blips of slight warming as the oceans belch out heat in phases, but overall cooling will be the dominant factor. Is PDO and solar minimum mutually exclusive? No matter, it all appears to center around the oceans ability to store and accumulate heat. Stop replenishing it, and it is only a matter of time before the rest of ~30% of earth's surface begins to cool. Just because certain arrogant solar scientists dismiss the sun does not make it true. There are other well qualified scientists who disagree with their peers. We simply don't have enough understanding of earth and sun climate mechanisms to know yet. It is getting old listening to some solar scientists writing off the sun. Hey Mag yeah Im with you on this one. Think the cooling is setting in and will take a while for the oceans to reheat up especially if we are entering low solar cycles as well as keep going on a protracted minimum. SOI continues to track strongly positive so the strength of the next la nina will be significant in all of this. Here is Oz I think we are in for some interesting months ahead with rain and cyclone activity building. I was looking at the UAH daily sat data. Note the spike upward the last few days? That is the oceans belching out heat. Watch as it drops back again. This cycle will continue although the peaks are difficult to predict. AGW believers, don't get too excited when temperatures rise; it will not last. Does anyone know of an alternative ARGO OHC analysis? Josh Willis said he was working on it, but as far as I'm concerned he's dragging his feet. I suspect the news would not be good for AGW promoters who've been claiming the radiative imbalance since 1993 proved AGW had overtaken natural variation. Hmm.....new El Nino forming, strongest in 10 years? NOTwww.pacificmagazine.net/news/2008/08/03/meteorologist-warns-new-el-nino-forming-by-end-of-2008
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Post by twawki on Oct 29, 2008 12:39:20 GMT
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