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Post by icefisher on Feb 4, 2010 13:22:32 GMT
This is one of those annoying times when we actually have to learn what the heck it means. It appears there may be a difference between the El Nino/La Nina behavior of the warm/cold parts of the longer ocean cycles. I believe they had expected an overall MILD winter to be associated with an El Nino. All the experts are running around confused. . . .first solar guys then ocean guys. . . .think maybe there is a connection?
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 4, 2010 22:01:59 GMT
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/Just updated their web page If one compares the rankings of this event to other El Niño events of the last decade (2002-03, 2004-05, and 2006-07) from May-June of Year 0 to December-January of Year 1 (8 values for each event), the current event slightly outranks all three of these events to render 2009-10 as the strongest El Niño since 1997-98.
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 6, 2010 7:15:07 GMT
SOI been down to -80. Last seven days all below -40
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Post by magellan on Feb 6, 2010 19:33:11 GMT
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/Just updated their web page If one compares the rankings of this event to other El Niño events of the last decade (2002-03, 2004-05, and 2006-07) from May-June of Year 0 to December-January of Year 1 (8 values for each event), the current event slightly outranks all three of these events to render 2009-10 as the strongest El Niño since 1997-98. What is not mentioned is NINO 3.4 is nose diving (h/t Bob Tisdale): NINO 3.4 map. It is not persisting, it is disintegrating. In another month we'll wonder where El Nino went. To put into perspective, and why limiting comparing ENSO events to the last decade doesn't say much: The 30 day SOI for February 1973 was -15. By June it was +10. It was a strong El Nino that resulted in rapid land surface cooling. ONI during that period: Now compare to 2002-2003: Something is very different about this El Nino with respect to the last decade cited in the article. To compare it to 97-98 is a bit over the top.
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Post by scpg02 on Feb 6, 2010 21:35:01 GMT
That first chart is very interesting.
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shm6666
Level 2 Rank
The Sun :-)
Posts: 98
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Post by shm6666 on Feb 7, 2010 19:05:09 GMT
Regarding the SOI, we had Typhoon OLI over at Tahiti. So that could be the cause of the negative SOI.
Then if this has an impact or not we will see in the coming weeks.
/Sven
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 7, 2010 20:15:34 GMT
The wind patterns have changed considerably in the last 18 months. The Hadley and Ferrel cells and thus the jet streams and polar vortices appear to be behaving differently and displaced toward the equator.
The question is are these changes the result of the ocean oscillations or the cause of them - or both?
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Post by hairball on Feb 7, 2010 22:31:17 GMT
Piers Corbyn reckons he knows it's the Sun that affects the jet stream and has predicted the last 3 Arctic Oscillation drops to within days from months ahead using his method. He's a great guesser if he's wrong.
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Post by scpg02 on Feb 9, 2010 3:41:40 GMT
Piers Corbyn reckons he knows it's the Sun that affects the jet stream and has predicted the last 3 Arctic Oscillation drops to within days from months ahead using his method. He's a great guesser if he's wrong. I know a lot of people have problems with Piers' accuracy but he comes closer than anyone else given the long range aspects of his forecasts.
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Post by poitsplace on Feb 9, 2010 5:48:04 GMT
What's amusing is that the ASSUMED correlation between temperature and the jet stream/polar vortex...almost completely reversed (granted, so far its just a "short term" change). Its the warmest ever by UAH/RSS data and we've been in an El Nino for quite a while...but the jet stream/polar vortex are moving in the "wrong" direction. If this continues it is a substantial blow to the established climate "science". If they can't model the rough location of the large, persistent features like the jet stream and polar vortex they sure as heck can't model out into the future.
Now...in keeping with the actual topic...anyone up on their cold period weather enough to tell us what generally happens during moderate to strong La Ninas during the cold period? I haven't dug that far yet.
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Post by scpg02 on Feb 9, 2010 5:52:09 GMT
Well I can tell you that La Ninas usually send torrents of rain into southern CA and southern US.
El Ninos do one of two things: they either drench central CA or the cause us to drought by sending it all north.
winter of 82 we saw lots of rain. Seems like that was El Nino but someone would have to check.
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Post by walterdnes on Feb 9, 2010 6:38:02 GMT
The latest update of my ENSO and Arctic ice extent spreadsheet at folder www.mediafire.com/walterdnes-climate is now up. My combined-anomalies index continues to fall. It has fallen from its 2009 high of 5.5 to 3.6 last week and 2.9 this week. It's still a noticeable El Nino. Global temperature anomalies should remain warm for the next few months, at least into late spring. Major ENSO events for comparison... 1997 El Nino 11.9 2002 El Nino 5.5 2006 El Nino 4.9 2007 La Nina -6.6 2009 El Nino 5.5 I prefer the combined-anomalies versus merely using the ENSO3.4 number. ENSO3.4 shows the 1994, 2002, and 2009 El Ninos warmer than 1997, while 2006 ties 1997. Similarly, it shows the 1999 La Nina colder than 2008. Note that this index is a leading indicator by 3 to 6 months, so the global temperature peak/valley may happen the following calendar year. Since the sum of the anomalies hindcasts better than the ENSO3.4 anomaly alone, I'm going with the sum.
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Feb 9, 2010 15:52:21 GMT
Oh, man, scpg02, don't tell me to expect even more rain in the South from a La Nina. Last year at this time we were over 3 inches of rain below what we should have had. We ended the year with over 69 inches, more than 19 inches above average. We were in a drought for three years before that. So far this year, we are one and three-quarter inches above average - and it's raining. I suspect it has something to do with clouds....
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Post by scpg02 on Feb 9, 2010 15:57:40 GMT
I suspect it has something to do with clouds.... LOL better run a computer model to be sure. ;D
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Post by Ratty on Feb 9, 2010 23:04:43 GMT
Oh, man, scpg02, don't tell me to expect even more rain in the South from a La Nina. Last year at this time we were over 3 inches of rain below what we should have had. We ended the year with over 69 inches, more than 19 inches above average. We were in a drought for three years before that. So far this year, we are one and three-quarter inches above average - and it's raining. I suspect it has something to do with clouds.... What is your location, jtom?
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