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Post by karlox on May 12, 2013 20:25:27 GMT
Looks like pretty cold again for this week in UK and cold spell reaching Spain with temp drops of 10ºC coming tuesday-wednesday
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Post by nautonnier on May 13, 2013 10:10:08 GMT
I think that this year's weather will be a repeat of last year perhaps a little cooler for NW Europe. It looks like the jet streams are setting up for the same pattern and the North Atlantic is colder than normal.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 13, 2013 14:00:58 GMT
Forecasters warn climate change could mean more dismal weather this year Extract: One theory is that the jet stream is being pushed south by melting ice from the Arctic, caused by climate change. Global warming also means warmer seas, that means more water evaporating, and hence more moisture in the air and heavier rainfall when it does come. After last year’s summer the Met Office, warned climate change could mean more wet cold summers. Now the fear is that the jet steam could get stuck in a rut this year.No mention from the Met Office that the position of the Jet could be due to current solar output (see Met Office presentation link below): Extract from Met Office presentation summary: • Increasing modelling evidence to support the observed modulation of the AO/NAO by UV solar variabilityPdf link: lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 13, 2013 16:29:45 GMT
Is the Met predicting a cold wet summer? That would be good news for all you Brits, give you a chance to dry out and have some nice barbeque weather.
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Post by nautonnier on May 13, 2013 20:12:39 GMT
The Arctic - despite the melt last year - is now covered with ice again - indeed it is up to average. So how can it now be 'pushing the jet streams south'? The poles have little energy the energy coming into the system is mainly at the equator. If the Sun is quiet in the shortwave spectrum then the heating of the ocean at the equator is lower and the convective cells are smaller and less powerful - allowing the jetstreams to move toward the equator rather than being compressed poleward.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 14, 2013 21:21:26 GMT
It's the middle of May and there's sleety snowing driving against the windows. Friends who live higher up on the moor report heavy snow. Radar looking interesting:
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Post by cuttydyer on May 15, 2013 11:17:44 GMT
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Post by throttleup on May 16, 2013 23:11:27 GMT
Cutty, "fairly unusual" -- now that's funny. Although I don't know if it truly IS fairly unusual in that part of Britain at this time of year. It certainly seems unusual to me. Can you comment?
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Post by cuttydyer on May 17, 2013 7:52:51 GMT
Cutty, "fairly unusual" -- now that's funny. Although I don't know if it truly IS fairly unusual in that part of Britain at this time of year. It certainly seems unusual to me. Can you comment? Hi Throttleup, I would describe it as very unusual for the period covering the last 25 years, prior to that not so strange. The Met Office's Central England Temperature record indicates that the UK's climate frequently switches very suddenly from periods of warmth to cold (switches indicated with arrows in the graph below). On Dartmoor in the late 19th Century, fires were kept burning in the grates all year round. What is the primary cause for these sudden changes? - an erratic southerly Jet Stream; and the cause of the erratic Jet Stream, a weak sun. This 2012 Met Office presentation divulges that some of the team at the Met Office are well aware of this:
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Post by cuttydyer on May 17, 2013 8:09:56 GMT
Is the Met predicting a cold wet summer? That would be good news for all you Brits, give you a chance to dry out and have some nice barbeque weather. Due to the poor press that the Met Office receive when their seasonal predictions fail, they no longer put the information out into the public domain (as a tax payer this makes me rather annoyed) . I have heard from a friend at the UK's Environment Agency that the forecast the EA received from the Met Office is for a hot dry summer . However, contradicting this are reports in the press that suggest the Met Office have forecast a repeat of last year - a wash out . My BBQ has been relocated to the cover afforded by the wood shed.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 17, 2013 8:33:42 GMT
An amusing rebuttal by Steven Goddard directed at Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said. Link When I Googled for the original quotation from Dr Viner, I came across this article from March 2000: Link: www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
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Post by nautonnier on May 17, 2013 13:02:34 GMT
I rather think that the good Dr Viner has regretted that article more than once. He made the fatal mistake for a climatologist he provided some testable output.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 19, 2013 5:48:41 GMT
Still no signs of a UK Summer; Thursday's forecast: Met Cet anomoly data up to the 17th May: Averages so far this year: Average CET to April: 4.20 Normal CET to April: 5.28 Anomaly to April: -1.08 Provisional CET anomaly (up to 17th May): -0.99
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Post by cuttydyer on May 23, 2013 9:24:19 GMT
Post warm period cooling - history repeating itself? From Science News, Vol. 107 1975: Temp trend 1975: Temp trend 2013: Following the "1940s" warm period "cool meridional circulation" was experienced, just as it is today. Today's Jet Stream forecast: Sunspot trend leading up to 1975: Sunspot trend leading up to 2013: Pdf link
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Post by karlox on May 23, 2013 11:20:56 GMT
Good comprehensive post! Thanks
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