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Post by numerouno on Jun 4, 2013 13:26:58 GMT
cuttydyer: The Arctic Amplification isn't working. The current patterns are still the result of UV variation, as that has been the change observed. The other ideas are just that......ideas with no scientific basis. So the black carbon that you saw around just last year is so out this season. Did you figure out the graph in the end .. any comment?
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 4, 2013 14:16:42 GMT
Of course the loss of Arctic ice will have an influence. Insisting it will not is denying the basic principles of thermodynamics. The climate of the northern Atlantic is extremely volatile, and the huge changes in ice cover will immediately lead to some major disturbances, just as we see happen here. Cuttydryer, you are pointed to the same word "possible" in the piece you quoted. There may be a mechanism such as you quote, but it is only dressing on the far bigger cake of the loss of Arctic ice. Ok, I'll ask again - seeing that the Arctic ice coverage is healthy (no vast areas of ice free sea): and the temperature for the last month is significantly below seasonal average: how exactly is "Arctic Amplification" currently driving the AO/NAO?
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 4, 2013 14:27:33 GMT
cuttydyer: The Arctic Amplification isn't working. The current patterns are still the result of UV variation, as that has been the change observed. The other ideas are just that......ideas with no scientific basis. Hi Sig, The ideas may have no scientific basis but they certainly go down well with their supporters/congregation.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 4, 2013 14:52:18 GMT
cuttydyer: The Arctic Amplification isn't working. The current patterns are still the result of UV variation, as that has been the change observed. The other ideas are just that......ideas with no scientific basis. So the black carbon that you saw around just last year is so out this season. Did you figure out the graph in the end .. any comment? The black carbon is not out of season numerouno. It contributes to the decline of the Arctic Ice. This is well established observational science. What is NOT well established is Arctic Amplification. What IS well established is the UV ray variation within the TSI that drives jet streams. It all began with Sir Herschel Walker, as an observation via crop yields, and has now been confirmed with actual observational science.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 4, 2013 14:53:28 GMT
cutty: Arctic Amplification is an idea, may have merit, may not. Presently the idea is looking extremely weak.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 4, 2013 15:52:16 GMT
cutty: Arctic Amplification is an idea, may have merit, may not. Presently the idea is looking extremely weak. I can understand that during periods of low ice area that there will be a contributing factor to the neutralisation of AO/NAO , but it beggars belief that there are claims that the current Jet Stream strength and location is being influenced by Arctic Amplification.
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Post by numerouno on Jun 4, 2013 19:10:33 GMT
cutty: Arctic Amplification is an idea, may have merit, may not. Presently the idea is looking extremely weak. I can understand that during periods of low ice area that there will be a contributing factor to the neutralisation of AO/NAO , but it beggars belief that there are claims that the current Jet Stream strength and location is being influenced by Arctic Amplification. This IS the period of low Arctic ice, lower than for thousands of years so thank you for agreeing!
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 4, 2013 20:00:29 GMT
I can understand that during periods of low ice area that there will be a contributing factor to the neutralisation of AO/NAO , but it beggars belief that there are claims that the current Jet Stream strength and location is being influenced by Arctic Amplification. This IS the period of low Arctic ice, lower than for thousands of years so thank you for agreeing! Numerouno, Ok, I'll ask again (for the 3rd time) - seeing that the Arctic ice coverage is healthy (no vast areas of ice free sea): and the temperature for the last month is significantly below seasonal average: how exactly is "Arctic Amplification" currently driving the AO/NAO?
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Post by numerouno on Jun 4, 2013 21:05:07 GMT
Cuttydyer kindly see the article I linked to above. For the supposed healthiness of the ice also kindly see the recent evolution of the volume, also posted above. Moreover, I dare you to watch the video at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7EHvfaY8Zs&list=UUtZdUYUZr493AUh_EInBYxQ and report back to me when you've completed watching it.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 5, 2013 7:32:41 GMT
Cuttydyer kindly see the article I linked to above. Numerouno, Have you actually read the article yourself? It refers to a "possible" influence that occurs during extreme melts when there is little sea ice cover. So, for the 4th time: seeing that the Arctic ice coverage is healthy (no vast areas of ice free sea): and the temperature for the last month is significantly below seasonal average: how exactly is "Arctic Amplification" currently driving the AO/NAO?
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Post by numerouno on Jun 5, 2013 12:27:55 GMT
Cuttydryer, I did not you see you actually report you had seen the video I linked to? If not, are you perhaps intending to? While you're gathering the mental strength, by all means see the SST anomaly map:
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 5, 2013 12:46:25 GMT
Cuttydryer, I did not you see you actually report you had seen the video I linked to? If not, are you perhaps intending to? While you gathering the mental strength, by all means see the SST anomaly map: By refusing to answer my question I'll draw the conclusion that you don't know - I take it you didn't bother to read / digest the skepticalscience article you posted a link to.
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Post by flearider on Jun 5, 2013 13:23:33 GMT
Cuttydryer, I did not you see you actually report you had seen the video I linked to? If not, are you perhaps intending to? While you gathering the mental strength, by all means see the SST anomaly map: from what I see .. there is heat around the arctic but as the ice is not yet melting there is no actual heat over the arctic. but then again why would there be with a cooler sun ? but could it be the melt water from last yr has done something to the currents and as they are lower so the jet stream follows .. so a higher jet stream over land and a lower one over water .. would that not set up a wave effect ? but hey i'm just rambling ..
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 5, 2013 23:15:54 GMT
Amazing what such fragile thin ice will hold.... "Russians drive from Russia to Canada over North PoleMay 16, 2013 by Michel Viatteau At the "speed of a (farm) tractor" or about 10 kilometers per hour (6.2 miles/h) and carrying three tonnes of donated diesel fuel and supplies, they traveled more than 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) in 70 days from the Russian archipelago Severnaya Zemlya (or Earth North), after being dropped off by a Russian icebreaker, to the pole and then to Resolute Bay in Canada's far north.
Their two bright red vehicles were built around two-liter Toyota diesel engines and using old parts from prototypes that some of the team had used back in 2009 to drive from Russia to the North Pole and double back." Read more at: phys.org/news/2013-05-russians-russia-canada-north-pole.html#jCpOf course it might be that the ice is actually not as 'fragile'
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Post by numerouno on Jun 6, 2013 12:04:35 GMT
from what I see .. there is heat around the arctic but as the ice is not yet melting there is no actual heat over the arctic. but then again why would there be with a cooler sun ? but could it be the melt water from last yr has done something to the currents and as they are lower so the jet stream follows .. so a higher jet stream over land and a lower one over water .. would that not set up a wave effect ? but hey i'm just rambling .. The ice IS of course melting all the time, from the top, from underneath and from the "edges". While the process goes on, the temps in the area will show a lower value as the melting draws energy from the surroundings. As can be seem from the latest IJIS graph, the extent is oscillating relatively fast. This volatility is a sign of the times. The ice is getting thinner and thinner and therefore more easily thrown about by the winds and the currents, both of which are plentiful in the area. There will be many more shortlived "happy hours" with ice for the folks who have not seen anything worthwhile happen yet.
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