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Post by AstroMet on Aug 4, 2015 19:55:44 GMT
Again everyone, this is not El Nino but simply a climate transitional phase from solar forced global warming to global cooling. The weather from Autumn in the northern hemispheric conus throughout winter will be wet (but continued drought in the US West) into 2016 but this is not El Nino. The next ENSO is years away.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2015 21:08:28 GMT
To my very untrained eye....there's too much cool water pooling in the west, surely the engine of the El nino...and just waiting to be pushed East by any westerly winds that do crop up.
My guess is a upwelling kelvin wave is coming soon....
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Post by Ratty on Aug 5, 2015 0:03:56 GMT
GW, even GISTemp has flattened out in the last twenty years:
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 5, 2015 1:48:59 GMT
Ratty==============
You know better than to post silly graphs don't you? 2015 is the warmest on record.......couph...gulp.....ok......laughing pretty hard.
But some folks eat those lies up.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 5, 2015 12:02:45 GMT
Ratty============== You know better than to post silly graphs don't you? 2015 is the warmest on record.......couph...gulp.....ok......laughing pretty hard. But some folks eat those lies up. You need to see someone about that cough Sig, something to reduce temperature.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 5, 2015 16:56:31 GMT
No...It was me!! I'm obsessed with the little critters Also...I'm not very bright and prefer natural indicators to a sea of stats and acronyms...
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Post by acidohm on Aug 8, 2015 18:58:22 GMT
Well, at any rate.....i can maybe see a 'not a massive' El Nino underdeveloping in this table......what is all the fuss about???
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Post by graywolf on Aug 8, 2015 20:34:51 GMT
I take it we're all up on the fact this nino is out of phase with 'normal' nino timings? Sardines in summer....
Well , looks like we've got all our temp measuring 'tweaks' in place for the coming year ( better fixes than last years boys!) so do expect a doozy of a global atmospheric temp year even for a , now what was it?, " not massive" Nino......... so many years above 98's temp now , so many more to come.
Hey! This is fun guys!!!
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Post by douglavers on Aug 8, 2015 21:32:47 GMT
I suspect that almost all our climate models, and most of our personal recollections, were tuned by the most active Sun in millenia for the last 25 years of the 20th Century.
With the Sun now going into a much quieter phase and with some increasingly credible models predicting this will continue, I think we are in uncharted waters.
It seems to me that a totally atypical El Nino is occurring [atypical compared with our models, of course].
Happy sardines
Too much water falling on the Indian sub-continent
Wet & Cold Eastern & SE Oz
A cold blob in the North Atlantic - with effects likely to be chillingly apparent next Northern winter
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 8, 2015 21:59:47 GMT
I take it we're all up on the fact this nino is out of phase with 'normal' nino timings? Sardines in summer.... Well , looks like we've got all our temp measuring 'tweaks' in place for the coming year ( better fixes than last years boys!) so do expect a doozy of a global atmospheric temp year even for a , now what was it?, " not massive" Nino......... so many years above 98's temp now , so many more to come. Hey! This is fun guys!!! I will point out that the satellites picked up the 1998 El Nino temp rise. Back to atmospheric hookup. This potential El Nino has not hooked up at this time and time is running out. The question arises, is this an El Nino as wished for so that potential redemption can be obtained for folks who ignore the present science and only cling to a belief system?
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Post by Ratty on Aug 8, 2015 22:44:47 GMT
[ Snip ] Hey! This is fun guys!!! No it's not GW. It's some sort of macabre wish for end of days.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 9, 2015 6:50:09 GMT
Kicking around youtube and found this sea surface height anomaly animated map of pacific.
It appears to clearly show kelvin waves flooding east and initiating El Nino type conditions earlier in the year, however a recent kelvin wave appears to stall mid pacific.
Unfortunately this leads to present on the animation.....will be interesting to see this updated in a month!!
That last Kelvin wave also appears to be the largest of the year....
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Post by graywolf on Aug 9, 2015 9:59:41 GMT
[ Snip ] Hey! This is fun guys!!! No it's not GW. It's some sort of macabre wish for end of days. C'mon ratty, That just isn't cricket!!!! ( LOL......like you guys would know! ) Sorry an' all if your sensibilities can't handle the fact that we have right royally messed up swathes of our planet and are increasingly seeing more and more of the same as we all demand to live like a rich Yank...... Trump that!
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Post by Ratty on Aug 9, 2015 12:19:13 GMT
Don't include me in the "messing up" guilt trip .... and (please) don't mention cricket.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 9, 2015 12:39:30 GMT
Don't include me in the "messing up" guilt trip .... and (please) don't mention cricket. I don't understand....why shouldn't any English people mention cricket to u Ratty?? Has something happened?? What unspeakable horror could have occurred?? (Heh Heh Heh )
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