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Post by glennkoks on Jan 15, 2018 2:31:59 GMT
I think the most likely "reset" would be caused by some type of economic calamity. Nations around the world are in a fiscal death spiral and eventually the piper has to be paid for out of control deficit spending. It has been reported that in the fall of 2008 we were hours away from a bank run that would make the one in 1929 look small. We borrowed and spent our way out of that one but considering the amount of debt we now have I am not sure it would work again.
Since money is now just digits on a computer exchanged over night it would be easy for any government to simply turn off the power for a couple of months, claim it was an EMP from North Korea and say all banking records were lost in the attack. They could simply start printing a "new currency" and a starving populace would go along with anything that would get the world "back to the way it was".
All debt would be wiped out and a reset would be established.
Then there is always the possibility of a massive solar storm, real EMP attack, virus, super volcano etc...
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Post by Ratty on Jan 15, 2018 4:40:25 GMT
I think the most likely "reset" would be caused by some type of economic calamity. Nations around the world are in a fiscal death spiral and eventually the piper has to be paid for out of control deficit spending. It has been reported that in the fall of 2008 we were hours away from a bank run that would make the one in 1929 look small. We borrowed and spent our way out of that one but considering the amount of debt we now have I am not sure it would work again. Since money is now just digits on a computer exchanged over night it would be easy for any government to simply turn off the power for a couple of months, claim it was an EMP from North Korea and say all banking records were lost in the attack. They could simply start printing a "new currency" and a starving populace would go along with anything that would get the world "back to the way it was". All debt would be wiped out and a reset would be established. Then there is always the possibility of a massive solar storm, real EMP attack, virus, super volcano etc... I keep these handy, just in case.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2018 5:01:53 GMT
What Can We Expect From the Remainder of Solar Cycle 24 and the Transition to Solar Cycle 25Below are two charts ... the first was posted previously and shows monthly solar flux and the number of spotless days for solar cycles 9 through 24 ... the second shows the sum of months between cycles with many spotless days. Solar cycles 21 to 23 were the largest cycles of the second half of the 20th century grand maximum and are separated by the shortest periods of spotless days ... averaging ~30 months ... the shortest in the 16 cycle sequence. Solar cycle 23 had a generally spotless period of 56 months. Dr Svalgaard and others believe that SC24 most closely resembles SC12. If the magnitude of SC25 is as close to SC24 as SC13 was to SC12, then we might expect a semi-spotless period of 56 to 66 months between. This means we would have an additional 3 to 4 years of low solar conditions, taking us to the end of 2020 or 2021 before the active part of SC25 began. If the weather patterns we have been seeing for the last 2 years are directly related to the solar downturn, then this could be a long ride. I have also updated and re-plotted some solar and surface pressure databases. It looks very much like low geomagnetic activity is generally correlated with negative NAOs, which are merely a technique to measure surface pressure gradients in the North Atlantic Ocean between approximately 65 N and 35 N latitudes. A negative NAO means that the pressure difference between Iceland and Gibraltar (I have added the Azores and Bermuda) is low. Since the average monthly pressure for Iceland is always lower than the 35-North stations, this pressure difference decline can occur either by raising the Iceland pressure or lowering the station pressures at 35 N. Chart 3 shows the 1947-2017 solar flux, geomagnetic activity and a 13-month running NAO average. Over the 70-year period, the NAO statistic shows an increase as solar activity increases and a decline as solar activity declines. Sharp negative excursions seem to occur in periods of low geomagnetic activity. Chart 4 shows monthly negative NAO values plotted against the solar indices. Chart 5, compiled for December averages from 1960 to 2017 shows large increases in pressure in Iceland and smaller declines at Gibraltar, the Azores and Bermuda during negative NAO months. Chart 6 shows the December normalized pressure difference index (NAOs) between Iceland and the three stations at 35 N. Note that the NAO decline that ended in the December of 2009-10 took four years to develop. Note also that the Bermuda-Iceland pressure gradient was already in negative territory in December 2017. I would expect the others may follow soon. And summers? ? ?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2018 5:21:33 GMT
I think the most likely "reset" would be caused by some type of economic calamity. Nations around the world are in a fiscal death spiral and eventually the piper has to be paid for out of control deficit spending. It has been reported that in the fall of 2008 we were hours away from a bank run that would make the one in 1929 look small. We borrowed and spent our way out of that one but considering the amount of debt we now have I am not sure it would work again. Since money is now just digits on a computer exchanged over night it would be easy for any government to simply turn off the power for a couple of months, claim it was an EMP from North Korea and say all banking records were lost in the attack. They could simply start printing a "new currency" and a starving populace would go along with anything that would get the world "back to the way it was". All debt would be wiped out and a reset would be established. Then there is always the possibility of a massive solar storm, real EMP attack, virus, super volcano etc... Or just a decadal decline into a colder, less productive climate ... coupled with the large number of extreme weather events that will likely occur along that downward edge. Death by a thousand cuts. That of course could stimulate other events both good and bad.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 15, 2018 11:20:14 GMT
I think the most likely "reset" would be caused by some type of economic calamity. Nations around the world are in a fiscal death spiral and eventually the piper has to be paid for out of control deficit spending. It has been reported that in the fall of 2008 we were hours away from a bank run that would make the one in 1929 look small. We borrowed and spent our way out of that one but considering the amount of debt we now have I am not sure it would work again. Since money is now just digits on a computer exchanged over night it would be easy for any government to simply turn off the power for a couple of months, claim it was an EMP from North Korea and say all banking records were lost in the attack. They could simply start printing a "new currency" and a starving populace would go along with anything that would get the world "back to the way it was". All debt would be wiped out and a reset would be established. Then there is always the possibility of a massive solar storm, real EMP attack, virus, super volcano etc... Or just a decadal decline into a colder, less productive climate ... coupled with the large number of extreme weather events that will likely occur along that downward edge. Death by a thousand cuts. That of course could stimulate other events both good and bad. Urban centers are very fragile constructs, totally reliant on modern technology and the functionality of the system for survival. Disruption to one element leads quickly to effecting other elements. The sheep aren’t very resilient these days.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 15, 2018 13:15:59 GMT
Or just a decadal decline into a colder, less productive climate ... coupled with the large number of extreme weather events that will likely occur along that downward edge. Death by a thousand cuts. That of course could stimulate other events both good and bad. Urban centers are very fragile constructs, totally reliant on modern technology and the functionality of the system for survival. Disruption to one element leads quickly to effecting other elements. The sheep aren’t very resilient these days. All it would take for civilization to break down in LA, NYC, London, Sydney [name any other large urban center] - is 5 days without power.
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 15, 2018 13:49:51 GMT
In 2005 after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans a strong category 5 hurricane Rita was poised to hit Galveston. All of SE Texas was under mandatory evacuations and everyone decided to leave at the same time causing a 100 mile traffic jam on I-45 North. It was truly an apocalyptic scene as food and water fell off the shelfs at just about every store in Houston. It went from normal every day routine to: no gas, no bottled water and no food in about 3 days. It took my in-laws 22 hours to make it to my brothers house 35 miles away in The Woodlands. It was a lesson to me as I was tied up on the coast with last minute preparations. The storm turned north during the night and I spent the night eating steak and drinking wine in an otherwise almost empty Houston, TX. The ability to provide food, fuel and water in a large city can break down in less than 3 days. www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hurricane-Rita-anxiety-leads-to-hellish-fatal-6521994.php#photo-4128485
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2018 14:57:32 GMT
It would appear that the Icelandic Low has become lower as of late?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2018 15:44:17 GMT
It would appear that the Icelandic Low has become lower as of late? I briefly reviewed the Weather Underground Daily records for January back several years and see no pressures this low. In 2009 and 2000 they came close. This would appear to be a 4-5 day event. So what's up? Update: Also happened in 2013 and 2014.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2018 16:03:55 GMT
Not sure, but I wish we had reliable data for when Iceland got cold. It was the main reason for the mass exodus to Canada during the 1800's.
All the fools who are so worried about a bit of warmth, never study what actually happens when we get a bit of cool/cold.
Disruption happens!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2018 16:51:47 GMT
Not sure, but I wish we had reliable data for when Iceland got cold. It was the main reason for the mass exodus to Canada during the 1800's. All the fools who are so worried about a bit of warmth, never study what actually happens when we get a bit of cool/cold. Disruption happens! When in the 1800s did that happen Sig?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2018 16:59:58 GMT
1870-1890's.
Mass migration to Manitoba, Canada. Reason was cold period, even the Cod moved south which really hurt.
Also, the volcano wasn't silent. One of many....LOL.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2018 17:02:32 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2018 17:03:05 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 15, 2018 17:22:27 GMT
Urban centers are very fragile constructs, totally reliant on modern technology and the functionality of the system for survival. Disruption to one element leads quickly to effecting other elements. The sheep aren’t very resilient these days. All it would take for civilization to break down in LA, NYC, London, Sydney [name any other large urban center] - is 5 days without power. Precisely!
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