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Post by graywolf on Oct 2, 2016 12:57:43 GMT
August PDO stayed positive and 'the blob' seems to insure that Sept will also be another positive month? It will be 3 years of positives come December and so becomes the longest contiguous period of one sign since 98' ( with the majority of 'extreme' numbers over that period nearly doubling the number of high negative values???)
If PDO positive does indeed indicate a preponderance of Nino's , over Nina's, then we should not be too surprised if we stay Nada, or cool nada up until the build up for the next Nino?
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Post by icefisher on Oct 2, 2016 13:45:41 GMT
August PDO stayed positive and 'the blob' seems to insure that Sept will also be another positive month? It will be 3 years of positives come December and so becomes the longest contiguous period of one sign since 98' ( with the majority of 'extreme' numbers over that period nearly doubling the number of high negative values???) If PDO positive does indeed indicate a preponderance of Nino's , over Nina's, then we should not be too surprised if we stay Nada, or cool nada up until the build up for the next Nino? So what weight would you ascribe to a statistical SST artifact that is unprecedented for 18 years? As I look at the pattern of PDO fluctuations over time, its seems dominated by an approximate 70 year cycle. Where as ENSO is more like a cycle typically influenced by half a solar cycle with a cycle that averages 5.5 years. One portion of that cycle would be 2.75 years, suggesting to me that the warm ENSO influence is about to wane and that there are some significant variations around the 2.75 year average of it being in place. And since the current figure is acyually how only 2.67 years witn 4 mor data points to go for December, its not even a long variation even though th solar cycle is varying long Of course we notice you like to speculate on a days worth of ice melt so I am not surprised. Whats going to determine the PDO state as a cycle will be what happens over the next 10 years to 15 years. It seems if a La Nina is working its way up its doing it so far in almost exactly same fashion as the last El Nino did, which went like this threatening for a year, diminishing, then coming on strong, then having NOAA change the values for early 2015 upwards after dipping below the threshold to connect the threatened El Nino in as part of the official El Nino. We will have to see what happens next the most recent index value is only 20% as positive as 4 months ago. Based on that trend its not going to last even one month longer. . . .but what am I doing. . . .projecting from short term trends like you do? Yeah I cherry picked stuff to focus on too? LOL! and the blob is gone!
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Post by Ratty on Oct 2, 2016 22:10:20 GMT
Is there a site that lists the major oscillations in one place, one page?
Signed: Lazy Ratty
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Post by icefisher on Oct 3, 2016 5:16:27 GMT
So what weight would you ascribe to a statistical SST artifact that is unprecedented for 18 years? As I look at the pattern of PDO fluctuations over time, its seems dominated by an approximate 70 year cycle. Where as ENSO is more like a cycle typically influenced by half a solar cycle with a cycle that averages 5.5 years. One portion of that cycle would be 2.75 years, suggesting to me that the warm ENSO influence is about to wane and that there are some significant variations around the 2.75 year average of it being in place. And since the current figure is acyually how only 2.67 years witn 4 mor data points to go for December, its not even a long variation even though th solar cycle is varying long Of course we notice you like to speculate on a days worth of ice melt so I am not surprised. Whats going to determine the PDO state as a cycle will be what happens over the next 10 years to 15 years. It seems if a La Nina is working its way up its doing it so far in almost exactly same fashion as the last El Nino did, which went like this threatening for a year, diminishing, then coming on strong, then having NOAA change the values for early 2015 upwards after dipping below the threshold to connect the threatened El Nino in as part of the official El Nino. We will have to see what happens next the most recent index value is only 20% as positive as 4 months ago. Based on that trend its not going to last even one month longer. . . .but what am I doing. . . .projecting from short term trends like you do? Yeah I cherry picked stuff to focus on too? LOL! and the blob is gone! "and the blob is gone!" A Weakening BLOB cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-weakening-blob.htmlIts my perspective that what many people are calling the blob is the warmish water filling the entire Gulf of Alaska down into the subtropics. But that signature is more in order with a warm PDO pattern. www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillationIn fact an interview with Dr Nick Bond, the Washington State Climatologist who named the original Blob is calling the current pattern BlobII and saying its significantly different than the original blob. This pattern he says if very shallow (Mboy!!) compared to the Blob and could easily dissipate with a bit of rocky weather. But it seems to me more that The Blob was a sexy name and so now this very unusual occurrence is going to get real common over the next 40 years or so. Eventually they may need to actually physically describe some standards for it. www.nwcn.com/weather/blob-proves-less-influential-on-washingtons-weather/292475500Actually there was a blob back in 1996 or 7 that looked a lot like the blob of 2013 that was associated with the big El Nino of 97/98. You can look in the SST archives and see it.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 3, 2016 16:24:57 GMT
From here on, Ratty, Naut, Sig and Code are the 'in' crowd.... The rest of us are mere plebians!!
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Oct 3, 2016 16:49:13 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 3, 2016 21:30:39 GMT
Its my perspective that what many people are calling the blob is the warmish water filling the entire Gulf of Alaska down into the subtropics. But that signature is more in order with a warm PDO pattern. www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillationIn fact an interview with Dr Nick Bond, the Washington State Climatologist who named the original Blob is calling the current pattern BlobII and saying its significantly different than the original blob. This pattern he says if very shallow (Mboy!!) compared to the Blob and could easily dissipate with a bit of rocky weather. But it seems to me more that The Blob was a sexy name and so now this very unusual occurrence is going to get real common over the next 40 years or so. Eventually they may need to actually physically describe some standards for it. www.nwcn.com/weather/blob-proves-less-influential-on-washingtons-weather/292475500Actually there was a blob back in 1996 or 7 that looked a lot like the blob of 2013 that was associated with the big El Nino of 97/98. You can look in the SST archives and see it. ARGO is only available through June, 2016 currently. Minimum above normal SSTs occurred in March 2016 with a slight rebound after. Thickness looks the same through June ... about 100 to 200 meters with stringers downward..
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Post by acidohm on Oct 4, 2016 19:03:33 GMT
I have Never been cool!! unless its cool to be not cool?? or is that not care if your cool or not??? I think my problem is I don't get it Anyway..you named names before you edited it Code!! And I was miffed I wasn't one of them
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Post by Ratty on Oct 4, 2016 23:08:22 GMT
I KNOW I'm cool. Our microwave oven tells me most times I walk up to it. Smart gadgets, them microwaves.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 5, 2016 18:07:51 GMT
Well Nino 3.4 is this week has been reported at at minus .8. The seasonal index just came out for July/August/September at a La Nina qualifying minus .5. Models have been cooling since the last monthly update and ENSO prediction that was done September 8 and gave a better chance for neutral conditions by a slight margin over La Nina. The next report is due October 13 and it does appear La Nina is going to advance over the previous month. the IRI/CPC predictions have been vacillating all over the place over the past few weeks. It appears that this La Nina start up is acting a lot like the balky El Nino just past where we had a huge El Nino ocean warming event but climate connections completely unlike expected, possibly because of the pause. It appears to me there is some rather pronounced hanky panky still going on. I reported that over a year ago on the El Nino runup as well that its like folks are operating off two different data sets. Perhaps it related to the pause buster ocean data sucked up by the global surface temperature records versus what the instruments are actually saying.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 5, 2016 20:12:40 GMT
There seems to be a mixture of confirmation bias in assessments made by agencies of weather and 'climate' that have considerable inertia inhibiting reporting anything that is against the model delivered wisdom. But there also seem to be changes taking place that are wrong footing the wiggle watchers and the claims of 'teleconnection' (we don't know why these things happen together but they seem to be connected). Many of the 'if' 'then' logic claims of climate 'science' mechanims seem to be breaking down. It started with SC24 not behaving as the models said it should.
Perhaps we are witnessing a chaotic system of chaotic systems changing orbit to another attractor or set of attractors, that would explain the apparent non-sequiturs in patterns and mismatches between atmosphere and ocean.
Interesting times.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 5, 2016 20:26:38 GMT
I may as well go ahead and say it. Don't know if IRI/CPC will say it in another week or not, but with one minus .5 in the books and the latest project of 4 more La Nina seasons. . . .that should be worthy of at least a La Nina watch if things don't change. . . .again.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 6, 2016 1:20:35 GMT
I may as well go ahead and say it. Don't know if IRI/CPC will say it in another week or not, but with one minus .5 in the books and the latest project of 4 more La Nina seasons. . . .that should be worthy of at least a La Nina watch if things don't change. . . .again. That all depends if it is in the script. If it is not in the 'agreed talking points' then it will not be a La Nina.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 12, 2016 12:32:58 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Oct 12, 2016 12:47:01 GMT
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