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Post by sigurdur on Oct 18, 2016 2:21:35 GMT
Oh oh
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Post by graywolf on Oct 18, 2016 13:05:31 GMT
In the meantime region 3.4 has risen above the Nina threshold ( -0.48 something?) so we re-set the Nina clock to Zero meaning the full run of 3 month periods with Nina values in 3.4 starts again.....
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 29, 2016 15:26:31 GMT
The SOI has just crashed.
Joe Bastardi has just posted on Twitter: Major crash of SOI will do a number on the La Nina and signals big changes for US weather pattern mid Nov-Dec. Early winter this year.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 29, 2016 15:37:56 GMT
North Dakota seems to be a leading indicator as far as Pacific Ocean temps.
Right now, we ARE above normal temps. Not 20F as some indicate, but 3-5F above averages for this time of year.
This should hold for another 3 weeks or so. When we flip to winter, as our good friend from Texas would state, We will go from the frying pan to the freezer.
Which is indicative of a La Nina event unfolding.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 29, 2016 17:08:44 GMT
I've been trying to upload pics from the NOAA ENSO update page but have a few issues right now..... Subsurface water has cooled a lot and the 4 week ssta deviation shows massive cooling where the blob resides wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/27/the-blob-has-dissipated/The animation here shows something I mentioned a while back....the ENSO event is pulsing and you can see it here. The NOAA forecast simply follows the current trend, ie....they have no means of forecasting this.... Each time the cold ssta comes back, it comes back stronger.....so far. Currently pulsing cold.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 30, 2016 16:39:09 GMT
I've been trying to upload pics from the NOAA ENSO update page but have a few issues right now..... Subsurface water has cooled a lot and the 4 week ssta deviation shows massive cooling where the blob resides wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/27/the-blob-has-dissipated/The animation here shows something I mentioned a while back....the ENSO event is pulsing and you can see it here. The NOAA forecast simply follows the current trend, ie....they have no means of forecasting this.... Each time the cold ssta comes back, it comes back stronger.....so far. Currently pulsing cold. "the ENSO event is pulsing and you can see it here" it's alive.... Well....it appears to have a mind of its own at least!!
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Post by Ratty on Oct 31, 2016 0:06:32 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 31, 2016 9:40:05 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Oct 31, 2016 12:23:37 GMT
[ Snip ] More snow than normal in Northern Hemisphere - blue is positive anomaly Can you be sure they haven't made a blue?
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Post by acidohm on Oct 31, 2016 21:46:06 GMT
I'm not sure if anyone can tell if there's a la nina or not judging by Russian snowfall?? (Of which there is lots as of recent days)
Can you tell the pacifics enso state looking at N American snowcover??
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 31, 2016 22:21:43 GMT
I'm not sure if anyone can tell if there's a la nina or not judging by Russian snowfall?? (Of which there is lots as of recent days) Can you tell the pacifics enso state looking at N American snowcover?? Sometimes by the distribution
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Post by acidohm on Oct 31, 2016 22:35:41 GMT
Fair enough!!
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Post by Ratty on Oct 31, 2016 23:50:47 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 1, 2016 1:39:52 GMT
The negative numbers are usually associated with an El Nino. Positive numbers are associated with a La Nina.
The dip in pressure gradient difference to negative would normally be associated with an impending El Nino.
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Post by Ratty on Nov 1, 2016 1:59:26 GMT
The negative numbers are usually associated with an El Nino. Positive numbers are associated with a La Nina. The dip in pressure gradient difference to negative would normally be associated with an impending El Nino. Sorry Code and thanks Sig ..... I would have replied but I have a podiatrist appointment.
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