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Post by wheels59 on Dec 6, 2016 22:32:49 GMT
Theo did say earlier this year or late last year that there would be no la nina this year. He went on to say there will be a neno in 2019/20 followed by a deep la nina in 2021/22.
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Post by Ratty on Dec 6, 2016 23:35:39 GMT
My god Tisdale agrees with me!!!! Tisdale is my god too, GW.
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Post by graywolf on Dec 7, 2016 11:41:48 GMT
If we continue to see IPO positive then there will be no Nina following the Next Nino. The only chance this nina had was when the surfacing cold pool was around but surfaces warm either side of the regions 'milded it out' over the weeks after it arrived so we see sawed from nina back to neutral and , in so doing, were unable to trigger Nina staus.
The atmosphere , we are told, was never in a configuration to support a Nina looking , in fact, more like a weak El nino set up?
With background Global temps rising, decade on decade, and now the Asian 'Dimming' on the wane the IPO positive ( surface warming of the Ocean as opposed to the negative phase which buries the heat in the top 200m?)has access to even more solar than it has during the rapid Industrialisation of China due to the 'Brown cloud' intercepting it before it could warm the water column below.
The other 'wild card' has to be what we saw happening over the regions back in Feb when the QBO stopped a reversal and shifted back up into the Strat? Does the QBO weirdness play any part in setting up atmospheric cooperation and , if so, what will its 'out of phase' nature mean to events on the surface?
With no cool down from the Nina how long before we see another record year breaking 2016's record values? 2018?, 2019? If Theos Nino arrives in 2019 then all bets are off but again, should IPO now be in a major positive phase ( and the current positive not be a response to the reduction in Asian Dimming?) then we should expect to leap from our 1.2c above 1880 base to over 1.5c above. Again with a background warming any fallback will not drop below this last Nino's peak temp?
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2016 12:01:52 GMT
Get a grip, GW.
Nothing worth worrying about is happening AND it's likely all happened before - many times with multiple variations.
Read some geological history of the Earth, put on some soothing music and make yourself a cup of cocoa; that will calm your nerves.
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Post by skidplate on Dec 7, 2016 12:32:22 GMT
Get a grip, GW. Nothing worth worrying about is happening AND it's likely all happened before - many times with multiple variations. Read some geological history of the Earth, put on some soothing music and make yourself a cup of cocoa; that will calm your nerves. ......and lay-off the caffeine for goodness sake! Santa's watching ya know.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 7, 2016 16:34:26 GMT
Get a grip, GW. Nothing worth worrying about is happening AND it's likely all happened before - many times with multiple variations. Read some geological history of the Earth, put on some soothing music and make yourself a cup of cocoa; that will calm your nerves. Yep, the last El Nino actually recorded a couple neutral seasons before the 2015 El nino went off then when the historical period against what ENSO is measured did its regular 5 year jump forward into what were 30 years of cooler background the El Nino reappeared. But one could say that early El Nino period was pretty marginally neutral for a year. The same may happen going the other way. We have a couple of weeks of -.4 water but the last season averaged -.8 so we are a long ways from ruling out a La Nina since the next season is going to include 2 months of the last season. GW is like IRI/CPC always on the hot side of things. It can all easy be traced back to models that don't work and continue to not work. Of course its going to be "any day now" for the multi-billion dollar budgets supporting this nonsense as now it literally has to be any day now or its going to go the way of the new Air Force One.
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Post by graywolf on Dec 16, 2016 17:30:26 GMT
research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latestwell PDO positive now equals the longest run of negatives since 98' but the positive values are far higher than the negative tally? As if to highlight this the value is second highest for November with only November 1936 posting a higher value? It strikes me thaqt the #warm horse shoe# formation that characterises PDO positive was given a helping hand from the cold out spill from the WACCy impacts across western Siberia? In October the heat /moisture pouring out of the open East Siberian Sea placed 5 months of snow across Western Siberia. In its turn a cold continental H.P, set up over the snow fields ( near record /record values for H.P. there?) leading not only to a disrupted P.V. but also the winds that pushed that cold out over the Pacific ( bringing that early Japanese snowfall?) leading to a cold core to the horse shoe indicating PDO positive? Should WACCy become the norm then a strong PDO positive over winter may well be the result (remember the record high winter month values since we swung positive in Jan 2014?).
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Post by icefisher on Dec 16, 2016 18:54:28 GMT
research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latestwell PDO positive now equals the longest run of negatives since 98' but the positive values are far higher than the negative tally? As if to highlight this the value is second highest for November with only November 1936 posting a higher value? It strikes me thaqt the #warm horse shoe# formation that characterises PDO positive was given a helping hand from the cold out spill from the WACCy impacts across western Siberia? In October the heat /moisture pouring out of the open East Siberian Sea placed 5 months of snow across Western Siberia. In its turn a cold continental H.P, set up over the snow fields ( near record /record values for H.P. there?) leading not only to a disrupted P.V. but also the winds that pushed that cold out over the Pacific ( bringing that early Japanese snowfall?) leading to a cold core to the horse shoe indicating PDO positive? Should WACCy become the norm then a strong PDO positive over winter may well be the result (remember the record high winter month values since we swung positive in Jan 2014?). I would caution against getting predictive of the PDO. In that event in 2014 when we had a cold water push out of Siberia, the budding El Nino that year faded into oblivion, only to be rescued a year later by a change in base periods. The identified effects of positive and negative PDOs are not manifested at all in short term phenomena. Even the fishery stuff that comes out of PDO relationships is considerably longer term than we have seen positive PDO. Salmon maturity comes some 5 years after spawning and what really changes availability of fish is a multi-generational pattern. A spawn with a small number of adult fish, great survival over 4 to 5 years, and a fantastic spawn followed in a few years by a large return of mature fish. ENSO is widely recognized as less than 5 years while the PDO is a multidecadal pattern with series of ENSO events interrupting the short term data. What we are looking at today is the possibility the current hiatus will extend to 3 years or more. In the short non-modeled record of the PDO that may be the longest hiatus but its still in the range of ENSO influence. What is remarkable was the strength of the last El Nino in looking at the northern movement of water along our west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. Its strength will require a good long time for all that heat to vent out of the ocean. But its beyond a stretch to claim this is not an ENSO effect because clearly it is. Our problem is we cannot predict the PDO and we cannot predict ENSO. What we do know is that this process of El Nino has an influence on our climate, a huge influence that has no known connection to CO2.
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