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Post by duwayne on Apr 14, 2016 17:46:48 GMT
Wait, what? I'm pretty sure there was an El Nino in there somewhere... El Nino (The Boychild) was a name given by Peruvian fishermen for a year in which the anchovy catch failed. The anchovy catch last year was good. There was therefore no El Nino. Meanwhile in an office block somewhere some climate 'scientists' decided that a rectangle of the eastern Pacific named by them as Nino 3.4 coordinates 5S-5N and 170-120W was really important and if that area got warmer they could get all excited about an El Nino - regardless of anchovies. They duly got all excited at the end of last year and waxed poetic writing hyperbolic prose for friendly reporters. There was however no El Nino, the surface water in 3.4 did get warmer though for a few months. So statistics on everything from rain to in-gowing toenails were pored over to identify any correlations that could be excitably reported. Nautonnier, do you have any links to official reports which say the anchovy catch last year was good? Here is an example of what I have read. February 4, 2016, 10:24 am Undercurrent News In Peru, the warm water and low food availability that accompany El Nino conditions are spelling big trouble for the anchovies that make up the largest fishery on Earth, Oceana said. As stocks of Peruvian anchovies struggle, government-imposed catch limits for 2015 and 2016 have failed to keep pace, the environment charity said. While fishermen report low landings and high numbers of immature and pregnant fish, scientists fear for the long-term viability of what the United Nations calls “the most heavily exploited fish in world history.” Last October, fishermen and scientists argued that a total halt to the second anchovy season would be necessary to protect fish stocks from the combined effects of El Nino and overfishing. Strong El Nino years, such as 2015-16 and 1997-98, can tip anchovy populations into collapse unless fishing pressure is reduced, said Patricia Majluf, Oceana’s vice president for Peru. The warning signs were evident in the first anchovy season of 2015, which ran from March through June in the north of Peru. Though the government assured the public that catches would increase dramatically from 2014, fishermen hauled in low numbers of fish, and those that they did catch were small, skinny and sexually immature. Peru's marine institute (Imarpe) conducted a routine survey of anchovy populations in October and found that the northern stocks had sunk to a low of 3.38 million metric tons. Of this, only 2m metric tons were reproductive-age fish, well below the 5m metric tons required by law to open the fishery. www.undercurrentnews.com/2016/02/04/oceana-overfishing-el-nino-push-perus-anchovy-fishery-to-critical-point/
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Post by acidohm on Apr 14, 2016 17:57:25 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Apr 14, 2016 18:33:42 GMT
Modern fishery management looks at productivity for these species, not just catches. In the Astromet thread I detailed the difference. If El Nino term came from anchovy catches back in the 18th and 19th centuries, there is little documentation of it. Currently it is known that El Nino can cause migrations of fish. But moving fish may or may not change catches, especially in the modern era. So the focus is now on the fact that upwelling cold water carries all the nice carbon and mineral nutrients that sank to the bottom from dying fishing and who knows maybe even fossil fuel emissions. This deep nutrient rich water spurs plankton blooms when it reaches the lit upper ocean. Anchovies eat plankton. Bigger fish like tuna eat anchovies. El Nino is now known as a ocean productivity limiter. But it takes a year or more to actually affect fish stocks. But it can affect catches by encouraging fish migration. Fish catches are the old way of managing fish like anchovies. Today they do ocean water samples for larvae to predict the species productivity as well.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 14, 2016 18:36:01 GMT
NOAA's ENSO model continues to steepen it prediction for transition to La Nina. The most recent runs in blue show this now going into the realm of Super La Nina.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 17, 2016 5:41:29 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Apr 17, 2016 12:12:51 GMT
Let's hope not. It's getting cold here .... 16C minimum predicted tomorrow morning.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 17, 2016 13:44:23 GMT
Let's hope not. It's getting cold here .... 16C minimum predicted tomorrow morning. Now you've moved have you got a couch still Ratty? ? My bank balance is looking good and I need some good weather
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 17, 2016 14:38:19 GMT
Let's hope not. It's getting cold here .... 16C minimum predicted tomorrow morning. I feel for you Ratty, barely making 24C here today - plunging to 17C tomorrow dawn
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Post by icefisher on Apr 17, 2016 20:29:45 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 17, 2016 23:57:30 GMT
That cold patch of water around the Galapagos Islands is growing alarmingly fast. Is the word "unprecedented" needed here.
In theory we should be just coming of the hottest world ever and that map says 50/50 warm cold at a sea temperature level which is supposedly a lag indicator. I have a very skeptical view of Astromets forecasting, simple because I don't understand the drivers, but this is getting worrying.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 18, 2016 5:19:32 GMT
The pentad analysis is very revealing, any warmth left over from modoki nino is surface only, the Pacific is all cold under that thin layer....
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Post by Ratty on Apr 18, 2016 11:52:24 GMT
Let's hope not. It's getting cold here .... 16C minimum predicted tomorrow morning. Now you've moved have you got a couch still Ratty? ? My bank balance is looking good and I need some good weather Under separate cover, I'll advise my bank account details .... for donations the new couch fund. I still need somewhere else to sleep, especially when I am programming and " she who must be obeyed" doesn't understand.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 18, 2016 11:53:32 GMT
[Snip ] I feel for you Ratty, barely making 24C here today - plunging to 17C tomorrow dawn How do you cope .....
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Post by nautonnier on May 6, 2016 20:07:28 GMT
Joe Bastardi pointng out the rapid drop to La Nina not one model in positive
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Post by acidohm on May 6, 2016 21:15:33 GMT
Joe Bastardi pointng out the rapid drop to La Nina not one model in positive 3.4 anomalys too, where all the heat...was...
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