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Post by hrizzo on Jun 14, 2017 6:53:55 GMT
No problem with your image, Ratty.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 14, 2017 12:05:22 GMT
No problem with your image, Ratty. Glad to see you back with us Mr Hrizzo. hope things are well.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 14, 2017 14:15:32 GMT
Missouriboy et al, are you still not seeing my chart above?
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 14, 2017 15:04:49 GMT
Missouriboy et al, are you still not seeing my chart above? It's back. As are mine. Nice chart by the way.
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ENSO 2017
Jun 14, 2017 15:08:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jun 14, 2017 15:08:44 GMT
Missouriboy et al, are you still not seeing my chart above? Ive always seen your charts, i agree with Mboy, nice analysis!
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 15, 2017 22:45:43 GMT
I forecasted the last El Nino, and also forecasted the next as starting 2019-2020. It will be a pretty moderate to strong El Nino, that will make 2020 a washout solar year. It will be followed by a powerful La Nina that will dominate 2021-2022. Until that time, we will see a variety of cold and warm blobs, with the cold water anomalies predominate until 2019 when the next El Nino will rear its head. Astromet, am I correct in concluding that you predict that ENSO will be on the cold side of neutral for much of the next year and a half, but a full blown La Nina isn't likely in that time frame? I am saying that there is no such thing as ENSO-neutral duWayne. The closest time we will see signs of the next true El Nino will be mid-2019 through 2020 (closer to 2020) with a wet, moderate to strong El Nino, quite wet in fact. This will be followed by a powerful La Nina that will strike during the winter of 2021-2022, lasting into the spring of 2022. Very wet, with heavy snows, followed by polar vortexes, then more snow, then snow melts causing floods in spring 2022.
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Post by hrizzo on Jun 16, 2017 7:16:18 GMT
[quote timestamp="1497423235" author=" hrizzo" Glad to see you back with us Mr Hrizzo. hope things are well.[/quote] Thank you, missouriboy. Old heart is recovering... a little, at least. But I'll try to keep it beating for as long as I can, of course.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 16, 2017 8:18:05 GMT
Old heart is recovering... a little, at least. But I'll try to keep it beating for as long as I can, of course. Shiraz, Senor Hrizzo, Shiraz!
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ENSO 2017
Jun 16, 2017 9:15:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jun 16, 2017 9:15:26 GMT
Old heart is recovering... a little, at least. But I'll try to keep it beating for as long as I can, of course. Shiraz, Senor Hrizzo, Shiraz! Has to be rioja!
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Post by Ratty on Jun 16, 2017 9:31:44 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Jul 9, 2017 6:44:21 GMT
NOAA ENSO models are now showing a leaning toward La Nina this winter. Latest runs have no members predicting El Nino and about half and half predicting Neutral or La Nina. As we move out of June the spring predictability barrier is in the rear view member and model influences favoring El Nino has fizzled once again. Also while I have not found an explanation yet the model displayed is running .3C hotter than the official index and has been for at least a few years. So factoring that in La Nina would seem to be the all runs mean consensus.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 9, 2017 7:57:12 GMT
Id be more suprised if the model didnt run hot....
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 9, 2017 12:25:39 GMT
NOAA ENSO models are now showing a leaning toward La Nina this winter. Latest runs have no members predicting El Nino and about half and half predicting Neutral or La Nina. As we move out of June the spring predictability barrier is in the rear view member and model influences favoring El Nino has fizzled once again. Also while I have not found an explanation yet the model displayed is running .3C hotter than the official index and has been for at least a few years. So factoring that in La Nina would seem to be the all runs mean consensus. If the grossly latitudinal jetstreams and the increased galactic cosmic rays lead to increased cloudiness the nascent La Nina will not be an energy recharge cycle as normal. The reduced solar energy input into the pacific could then inhibit the formation of a subsequent El Nino. It would also mean less warm water in the Kuroshio current cooling the North West Pacific.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 9, 2017 16:35:42 GMT
Another failed prediction from the hyperventilating Graywolfian Forecast Center.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 9, 2017 21:11:16 GMT
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