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Post by acidohm on Jul 9, 2018 12:02:25 GMT
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Jul 9, 2018 17:48:09 GMT
Alberto was a subtropical storm, micro-storm Beryl* reached hurricane status, for what, three hours? And Chris is still a potential hurricane. You could add the energy of these three together and not get one, decent size, tropical storm. The forecasters may hit their numbers, but it will be misleading.
*edited. Original post incorrectly stated micro-storm Alberto
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Post by acidohm on Jul 9, 2018 18:06:52 GMT
Alberto was a subtropical storm, micro-storm Alberto reached hurricane status, for what, three hours? And Chris is still a potential hurricane. You could add the energy of these three together and not get one, decent size, tropical storm. The forecasters may hit their numbers, but it will be misleading. I think we're expecting Chris to bump our ridge out the way and give us cooler conditions in UK.....hope so and can't wait!!!
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 9, 2018 19:09:03 GMT
Alberto was a subtropical storm, micro-storm Alberto reached hurricane status, for what, three hours? And Chris is still a potential hurricane. You could add the energy of these three together and not get one, decent size, tropical storm. The forecasters may hit their numbers, but it will be misleading. For some reason they have started grading storms not by the wind strength but by the central pressure; this seems to lead to totally misleading claims of strength. Last years hurricanes were not anywhere near their claimed strengths - I have been under quite a few now Irma last year barely made 60MPH on anemometers in the Keys, the surge was big but winds nothing spectacular. The pressure gradient would appear to be more important than the absolute central pressure. It makes me wonder if there is another thumb on the scale.
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Jul 10, 2018 2:45:38 GMT
Yes, from the discussions on the NHC site, it seems clear they are taking (satellite?) pressure readings, plugging them into a *model* that generates the theoretical wind speeds. Of course, there are margins of error with the pressure readings, and the actual pressures are constantly fluctuating. I strongly suspect they gave Beryl (misidentified as Alberto in my previous post, sorry) the 'benefit of the doubt', with no actual measurements of windspeeds.
Perhaps someone can answer this: a couple of decades ago, subtropical storms were given numbers, not names. Before that, they weren't even given numbers. Subtropical storms do not have the same structure as tropical storms, and cannot evolve into a hurricane without first changing over into a tropical storm. Are subtropical storms included in the long-term average of tropical storms? Are they included in the various predictions of how many storms and hurricanes we will have? I ask this because at least one site is including Alberto in its graphics comparing this year's storms with the long-term averages. I don't see how subtropical storms could be in those averages.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 10, 2018 4:45:32 GMT
Yes, from the discussions on the NHC site, it seems clear they are taking (satellite?) pressure readings, plugging them into a *model* that generates the theoretical wind speeds. Of course, there are margins of error with the pressure readings, and the actual pressures are constantly fluctuating. I strongly suspect they gave Beryl (misidentified as Alberto in my previous post, sorry) the 'benefit of the doubt', with no actual measurements of windspeeds. Perhaps someone can answer this: a couple of decades ago, subtropical storms were given numbers, not names. Before that, they weren't even given numbers. Subtropical storms do not have the same structure as tropical storms, and cannot evolve into a hurricane without first changing over into a tropical storm. Are subtropical storms included in the long-term average of tropical storms? Are they included in the various predictions of how many storms and hurricanes we will have? I ask this because at least one site is including Alberto in its graphics comparing this year's storms with the long-term averages. I don't see how subtropical storms could be in those averages. Maybe contact Ryan Maue? Weather.us
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 10, 2018 9:27:18 GMT
Yes, from the discussions on the NHC site, it seems clear they are taking (satellite?) pressure readings, plugging them into a *model* that generates the theoretical wind speeds. Of course, there are margins of error with the pressure readings, and the actual pressures are constantly fluctuating. I strongly suspect they gave Beryl (misidentified as Alberto in my previous post, sorry) the 'benefit of the doubt', with no actual measurements of windspeeds. Perhaps someone can answer this: a couple of decades ago, subtropical storms were given numbers, not names. Before that, they weren't even given numbers. Subtropical storms do not have the same structure as tropical storms, and cannot evolve into a hurricane without first changing over into a tropical storm. Are subtropical storms included in the long-term average of tropical storms? Are they included in the various predictions of how many storms and hurricanes we will have? I ask this because at least one site is including Alberto in its graphics comparing this year's storms with the long-term averages. I don't see how subtropical storms could be in those averages. The sub-tropical storm change in naming was part of the fallout from 'superstorm' {{COUGH}} Sandy. Sandy was an unremarkable subtropical storm that was a continuation of a hurricane but had lost all hurricane structure and was effectively a nor'easter style storm. However, it was a strong one and it had a storm surge that was the remnant of its previous state as a hurricane and it arrived at high tide with just the right angle to cause a lot of flooding. The local politicians had been relaxing the building codes for years and allowing people to build in flood plains and along low lying shores. They had not taken any note in NYC of warnings of what would happen if a 1938 hurricane (a real hurricane) were to hit at the right direction over Governors Island. So none of the tunnels were protected from water with gates, no tidal surge barriers, architects had put standby generators in basements etc etc and LOTS of important people got egg on their faces. It was REALLY REALLY politically important for Sandy to be the storm of the millennium so it was not the politicians fault. It so happened that while the storm was passing Cape Hatteras which had hurricane warnings and up toward the Chesapeake which had hurricane warnings, the storm changed from a hurricane to a sub-tropical storm and was becoming 'just another nor'easter' so the Hurricane center in Melbourne FL. Stopped issuing hurricane warnings - as it wasn't a hurricane anymore. So New Jersey and New York didn't get Hurricane warnings just storm warnings. AHH _that's_ wrong said the politicians everyone thought the danger had gone away - that's the reason for the floods into floodplains we built on in the last 30 years and the reason for the flooded tunnels and all the other damage, it is all the Hurricane Center's fault for lulling us into a false sense of security for the 15 hours before the storm struck!!. {{Cough}} Soooo the Hurricane Center has decided due to the lack of meteorological understanding that even non-tropical storms will now be given all the gravitas of hurricanes as the low information politicians will keep blaming them if they don't. This has now spilled over into naming any wind eddy that goes above 5kts. This is because the Media Studies (failed) 'weather men' on TV like the idea of naming everything. So the old standard of a storm getting a name actually meaning something has now been lost. Well you did ask.
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Jul 11, 2018 13:39:58 GMT
Thank you nautonnier. I fear that future graphics will depict an upward tick in the number of storms, followed by the usual outcries of global warming, when the true reason is simply the counting of storms that were not counted in years past. And, of course, they will use the word 'unprecedented'. Well, they are right. The amount of fraud and misrepresentation coming from some climate research groups is indeed unprecedented.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 11, 2018 15:19:21 GMT
Extract from discussion; "For the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will be approaching and crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and no further weakening is expected. In fact it is possible that Chris could even briefly re-intensify, as shown by some of the intensity guidance, although this is not explicitly shown in the forecast. Once the hurricane crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in about 24 hours, all of the dynamical models indicate that Chris will quickly acquire extratropical characteristics and rapidly weaken while its wind field becomes more spread out. Given the lower initial intensity, the new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one for the first 36 hours, but very similar thereafter, and is close to a consensus of the global and hurricane dynamical models." www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/111459.shtml?
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2018 18:16:45 GMT
Alberto was a subtropical storm, micro-storm Alberto reached hurricane status, for what, three hours? And Chris is still a potential hurricane. You could add the energy of these three together and not get one, decent size, tropical storm. The forecasters may hit their numbers, but it will be misleading. I think we're expecting Chris to bump our ridge out the way and give us cooler conditions in UK.....hope so and can't wait!!! If you fix that, can ya help us out?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 11, 2018 21:57:16 GMT
Next Thursday or Friday Mr. Moboy. This too shall pass.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2018 22:52:28 GMT
Next Thursday or Friday Mr. Moboy. This too shall pass. Hope so. Feels like west Texas here. Shriveling in progress.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 11, 2018 23:54:07 GMT
Alberto was a subtropical storm, micro-storm Alberto reached hurricane status, for what, three hours? And Chris is still a potential hurricane. You could add the energy of these three together and not get one, decent size, tropical storm. The forecasters may hit their numbers, but it will be misleading. I think we're expecting Chris to bump our ridge out the way and give us cooler conditions in UK.....hope so and can't wait!!! You might just be lucky path is successively further South...
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 12, 2018 21:11:07 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 13, 2018 1:27:09 GMT
I sense a narrative beginning to crumble.😮
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