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Post by sigurdur on Sept 1, 2018 13:32:56 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 1, 2018 13:41:19 GMT
Looks like one for you Glen Reminder - click on the graphics first to get to the link then second time to expand the graphics
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 1, 2018 14:35:35 GMT
Looks like one for you Glen Reminder - click on the graphics first to get to the link then second time to expand the graphics I've reviewed two or three models--they've got the Gulf Coast storm skirting the Mississippi coast to the south, and hitting SE Louisiana and New Orleans from the east on Tuesday or Wednesday. Cat 1 max as of now, but you know how these things go. NHC makes no such prediction yet, and so the Decadence Festival goes on full throttle here in the Big Easy this weekend. I like Bastardi, but I have to say he can be a bit histrionic at times when it comes to tropical systems. I remember how he insisted to the last minute that Rita in 2005 was going to destroy Galveston and Houston. As always, we will wait and see, but I have gassed up the cars.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 1, 2018 15:52:11 GMT
It may be worth listening to the Saturday Summary on www.weatherbell.com/ cursor to the bottom and you get a meteorological lesson on how to look at macro-events - also Hurricane Season going into high gear and outlook for a really bad winter.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 3, 2018 3:43:43 GMT
Looks like a minimal TS coming through the Big Easy Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. I'll take in the outdoor furniture on the coast house, and close the shutters just to be sure. These little ones are actually a lot of fun to watch go by from my front porch in Waveland.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 3, 2018 4:43:18 GMT
Looks like a minimal TS coming through the Big Easy Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. I'll take in the outdoor furniture on the coast house, and close the shutters just to be sure. These little ones are actually a lot of fun to watch go by from my front porch in Waveland. This Waveland? The storm virtually wiped Waveland off the map
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 3, 2018 13:28:17 GMT
Looks like a minimal TS coming through the Big Easy Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. I'll take in the outdoor furniture on the coast house, and close the shutters just to be sure. These little ones are actually a lot of fun to watch go by from my front porch in Waveland. This Waveland? The storm virtually wiped Waveland off the mapThat's the one, Mr. Rat. There's a raised railroad right away (about 3 meters above grade) 3/4 of a mile from the beach, where my house is. Every structure in Waveland from the beach to that railroad track was gone the day after Katrina. Our place survived Camille in '69. Nothing but a slab and brick stairs after Katrina.
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Sept 3, 2018 16:25:12 GMT
My mother’s house in Bay St Louis was completely wiped out by Katrina - nothing left but a slab. She rebuilt a mile or so further inland with a house on ‘stilts’. I have since inherited it. I have it rented out, but if anything serious happens, am prepared to just walk away from it. Perhaps donate the property to a church.
Best of luck to you this week. Hope it doesn’t become a ‘cane. Tropical storms can be fun to watch as long as no real harm is done. Let us know how you fare!
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2018 17:44:48 GMT
That's the one, Mr. Rat. There's a raised railroad right away (about 3 meters above grade) 3/4 of a mile from the beach, where my house is. Every structure in Waveland from the beach to that railroad track was gone the day after Katrina. Our place survived Camille in '69. Nothing but a slab and brick stairs after Katrina. Might be an idea to board up that porch... It may get a little damp...
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Post by Ratty on Sept 3, 2018 22:36:38 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 3, 2018 23:15:33 GMT
Looks like it might come visit us too. Fifty percent or better chance of rain every day for the next week. Bring it on!
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 4, 2018 13:43:44 GMT
I seriously question the NHC wind speed forecast. Almost all the convection is east of the center. Not a single buoy is measuring speeds of 55 knots. Even the NHC "discussion," usually the most reliable part of their presentation, seems to admit that Gordon is weaker than the current projected conditions from the sat data. Add to that that the wind field is tiny, and I will bet there won't be a single station on the coast that measures 60 knot winds when this little guy makes landfall.
Mr. Naut, i did "board up" the Waveland house. it has hurricane shutters over double pane argon filled windows. It's on 15 foot stilts, and the siding is Hardy board. The roof is code for the area, with hurricane straps. I may have some minor damage, but my guess is I'll just have to pick up a few tree limbs. In New Orleans, this won't be as bad as some of our summer thunderstorms, although my staff is simmering that i didn't close the office this morning. I sympathize a little, since all the schools are closed today and tomorrow, so a lot of folks have to either find day care or miss work. Over reaction by the schools, I think. In New Orleans at 830 CDT, it is partly cloudy, with winds less than 10 mph from the east. We may got a squall line during the day, but in the end you won't know a "hurricane" passed within 100 miles.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 4, 2018 13:51:42 GMT
I seriously question the NHC wind speed forecast. Almost all the convection is east of the center. Not a single buoy is measuring speeds of 55 knots. Even the NHC "discussion," usually the most reliable part of their presentation, seems to admit that Gordon is weaker than the current projected conditions from the sat data. Cry wolf too often people will stop listening....
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 4, 2018 16:45:27 GMT
I seriously question the NHC wind speed forecast. Almost all the convection is east of the center. Not a single buoy is measuring speeds of 55 knots. Even the NHC "discussion," usually the most reliable part of their presentation, seems to admit that Gordon is weaker than the current projected conditions from the sat data. Cry wolf too often people will stop listening.... The problem isn't crying wolf, its using the central pressure as an indication of the windspeed. The windspeed will depend on the pressure gradient not just the pressure, but for some reason they only use the central pressure. Then start getting attacks of hyperbole about wanting a 6th category of hurricane. When IRMA went through it was huge and the wind continued for a long time but it was most certainly not even a Cat 1 hurricane - although it was claimed to be a Cat 2 - 3. None of the anemometers in the Keys recorded wind speeds much above 65 - 70 kts. The damage was done due to storm surge which was considerable.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 4, 2018 16:52:57 GMT
I seriously question the NHC wind speed forecast. Almost all the convection is east of the center. Not a single buoy is measuring speeds of 55 knots. Even the NHC "discussion," usually the most reliable part of their presentation, seems to admit that Gordon is weaker than the current projected conditions from the sat data. Add to that that the wind field is tiny, and I will bet there won't be a single station on the coast that measures 60 knot winds when this little guy makes landfall. Mr. Naut, i did "board up" the Waveland house. it has hurricane shutters over double pane argon filled windows. It's on 15 foot stilts, and the siding is Hardy board. The roof is code for the area, with hurricane straps. I may have some minor damage, but my guess is I'll just have to pick up a few tree limbs. In New Orleans, this won't be as bad as some of our summer thunderstorms, although my staff is simmering that i didn't close the office this morning. I sympathize a little, since all the schools are closed today and tomorrow, so a lot of folks have to either find day care or miss work. Over reaction by the schools, I think. In New Orleans at 830 CDT, it is partly cloudy, with winds less than 10 mph from the east. We may got a squall line during the day, but in the end you won't know a "hurricane" passed within 100 miles. I have hurricane straps and the House is up to Andrew level code for Florida - the builder claims that it shouldn't suffer more than minor damage from 140mph. I didn't like shutters so I have covered the windows with a reflective/tinted plastic film. It apparently passes the 'Dade County TAS 202 Impact test' in which they fire a baseball size steel ball at the window at 75mph three times in a pattern and the window must stay intact. More importantly I can see out It has the added advantage that the ungodly cannot get in either Don't need stilts as it is around 5 miles inland of the Cat 5 storm surge line - although having seen what Katrina did in Mississippi I have some doubts on that.
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