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Post by icefisher on Jun 29, 2009 14:22:12 GMT
The summer weather finally arrived today in most of Norway with nearly 30c in some areas. Forecasts also predict same for rest of the week. I doubt it will be enough to make raise the average temp of june much. Same here in the UK. June will be ~0.5-0.7 above normal. But the weather is now unusually hot. High 80s to-day - possibly touching 90s tomorrow and rest of week. I can only think of about 6 or 7 years out of the last 50 where temperatures have been this high. Isn't that what you would expect even with oscillating temperatures coming off a peak?
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Post by astrodragon on Jun 29, 2009 14:43:11 GMT
The summer weather finally arrived today in most of Norway with nearly 30c in some areas. Forecasts also predict same for rest of the week. I doubt it will be enough to make raise the average temp of june much. Same here in the UK. June will be ~0.5-0.7 above normal. But the weather is now unusually hot. High 80s to-day - possibly touching 90s tomorrow and rest of week. I can only think of about 6 or 7 years out of the last 50 where temperatures have been this high. I'd love to know which bit of the UK (outside of your back garden..) is reaching 90. As usual, the Beeb is showing off high temperatures (which oddly dont seem to be seen in my local forecasts..) Of course, the Beeb gives the temp in London (a lovely huge UHI) and applies if to most of the South East. They also seem to manage to find a thermometer or two that agrees with them - although oddly they never show the siting of the station..(one wonders how many of the stations in the UK Watts would find out of compliance...). Heathrow airport is a favourite warm site, for example...a really large lump of tarmac in the London UHI.... I'm in Oxford (always one of the hottest parts of the country when we get this weather off the continent), and the forecast is for around 80 for 3-4 days, then falling quite sharply. Oddly, I can remember quite a few years when we have temperatures like this for a few days. What was odd about the warm years around 2000 was that we had these temps for weeks, on a number of occasions during the summer. Now if that happens this year, I'll concede a hot summer. But at the moment, today is the first day I've had to turn a fan on. In previous years, usually well before this point (it is July this week, after all, hot spells are to be expected. Its called weather....). And thats mainly because its very humid today, rather than just warm.
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Post by tacoman25 on Jun 30, 2009 8:14:46 GMT
The summer weather finally arrived today in most of Norway with nearly 30c in some areas. Forecasts also predict same for rest of the week. I doubt it will be enough to make raise the average temp of june much. Same here in the UK. June will be ~0.5-0.7 above normal. But the weather is now unusually hot. High 80s to-day - possibly touching 90s tomorrow and rest of week. I can only think of about 6 or 7 years out of the last 50 where temperatures have been this high. Temperatures in the SE (London area) are running much warmer than most of the UK. I see many spots in the central and northern parts of England that didn't exceed the low 70s yesterday.
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Post by tacoman25 on Jun 30, 2009 8:24:31 GMT
Many major U.S. cities, including Boston, NYC, Minneapolis, Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and LA have had a very cool June, with -2 to -4 departures common.
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Post by glc on Jun 30, 2009 9:54:58 GMT
But at the moment, today is the first day I've had to turn a fan on. In previous years, usually well before this point (it is July this week, after all, hot spells are to be expected. Its called weather....). And thats mainly because its very humid today, rather than just warm.
Ok - but a few months back when we had a bit of snow and temperatures were a bit below normal, I though some were saying it was a clear sign that a grand solar minimum had arrived and it was downhill from here on. However I notice that every month since January has had a positive anomaly.
As far as their summer prediction is concerned it looks as thoough the met office could be right and this summer may well end up 1-2 deg warmer than average (2008 was average). Europe as a whole is warm. India had been baking. Central Asia has been very hot. I'm just wondering how this solar/climate link works.
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Post by astrodragon on Jun 30, 2009 10:38:49 GMT
Just to show the highly accurate (sic) bbc reporting of tempertures...
They had a reporter runnnig around Oxford street (centre of london), with a hand-help temperature reader...oh, but the reading of 31C was ok, he was in the shade of a shop doorway....!!!
Nice to see scientific accuracy lives at the beeb....
And their headlines were rather misleading too, apparently the met office only forecast a chance of a heatwave (and thats allowing for the readings they take in central london).
To compare, the forecast from the beeb is for 3-4 days of temps around 31C (in london, its 3-4 degrees cooler outside the city - although you wont know that from them, their weather map lumps all of teh southeast/central area under the london temp). In 2003, we had 9-10 days of temps in the 37C range. now that, I will freely admit, is a heatwave!
By the way, forecast for next week is for high temps here around 16C..not exactly warm for July..!!
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Post by astrodragon on Jun 30, 2009 10:42:55 GMT
But at the moment, today is the first day I've had to turn a fan on. In previous years, usually well before this point (it is July this week, after all, hot spells are to be expected. Its called weather....). And thats mainly because its very humid today, rather than just warm. Ok - but a few months back when we had a bit of snow and temperatures were a bit below normal, I though some were saying it was a clear sign that a grand solar minimum had arrived and it was downhill from here on. However I notice that every month since January has had a positive anomaly. As far as their summer prediction is concerned it looks as thoough the met office could be right and this summer may well end up 1-2 deg warmer than average (2008 was average). Europe as a whole is warm. India had been baking. Central Asia has been very hot. I'm just wondering how this solar/climate link works. I'd really love to know how every month except Jan was a positive, since it was cold here until April - and even though we had a sunny spring, it wasnt that warm. Longest I've had to leave the central heating on in the last 10 years at least. Obviously the met office has different standards.. Not sure about the continent being hot, wasn't someone from Norway on here saying how it had been cold? And it was certainly a cold winter in Europe. Central asia, well, just where are the temperature recorders?? Its odd how all the areas they interpolate from thermometers hundreds of miles away always seem to be hot compared to everywhere else.... And India is SUPPOSED to be baking right now..
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Post by socold on Jun 30, 2009 19:38:09 GMT
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Post by Belushi TD on Jun 30, 2009 23:00:07 GMT
However I notice that every month since January has had a positive anomaly. Hey GLC - Just because the anomaly is positive does NOT mean that its still getting warmer. It just means that it is warmer than the mean over a specified period of time. If the anomoly is (pulling numbers right out of my a... umm, out of the air, to quote Hansen) 0.55, 0.50, 0.45, 0.40 and then 0.35, then for a 5 year period the anomoly is positive, but decreasing, meaning that over that period of time, its getting cooler. Belushi TD
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Post by donmartin on Jun 30, 2009 23:47:11 GMT
What is it about Oxford? Every time I'm there the availability of parking is inverse in ratio to the temperature.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 1, 2009 0:29:01 GMT
It is interesting standing back and looking at the bigger picture rather than quoting individual temperatures As the really interesting point of all this is that the polar vortex seems to have settled into a rather strange pattern. With the jet crossing the mid-Atlantic rather than a lot further North. The result has been that some of the mid-South and South-Eastern states have been hot and humid where the South West and North has been cooler than normal. In between in the frontal zone there have been almost continual storms through Denver to Kansas and Missouri.
Why has the jetstream stayed so far South?
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Post by tacoman25 on Jul 1, 2009 0:50:55 GMT
But at the moment, today is the first day I've had to turn a fan on. In previous years, usually well before this point (it is July this week, after all, hot spells are to be expected. Its called weather....). And thats mainly because its very humid today, rather than just warm. Ok - but a few months back when we had a bit of snow and temperatures were a bit below normal, I though some were saying it was a clear sign that a grand solar minimum had arrived and it was downhill from here on. However I notice that every month since January has had a positive anomaly. As far as their summer prediction is concerned it looks as thoough the met office could be right and this summer may well end up 1-2 deg warmer than average (2008 was average). Europe as a whole is warm. India had been baking. Central Asia has been very hot. I'm just wondering how this solar/climate link works. What is your baseline for "normal" in the UK? It is much more telling to see what direction your local climate is going if you use 30 year or less averages. Much of the U.S. has been markedly cooler the last couple years than the ten year average before that...this could easily be used to argue a link between solar/climate, at least in the U.S. Here in Denver, we failed to hit 90 this month, only the second June since 1972 to do so.
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Post by glc on Jul 1, 2009 1:20:53 GMT
I'd really love to know how every month except Jan was a positive, since it was cold here until April You're making comparisons with recent years. March, April and May were much colder in the 1960s and 1970s. - and even though we had a sunny spring, it wasnt that warm. Longest I've had to leave the central heating on in the last 10 years at least.Exactly my point, i.e. the "last 10 years". Obviously the met office has different standards..The met office makes comparisons with 1961-1990 mean and 1971-2000 mean. I have no trouble believing that this year has been at least ~0.5 deg warmer than either of those periods.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 1, 2009 3:03:10 GMT
I'd really love to know how every month except Jan was a positive, since it was cold here until April You're making comparisons with recent years. March, April and May were much colder in the 1960s and 1970s. - and even though we had a sunny spring, it wasnt that warm. Longest I've had to leave the central heating on in the last 10 years at least.Exactly my point, i.e. the "last 10 years". Obviously the met office has different standards..The met office makes comparisons with 1961-1990 mean and 1971-2000 mean. I have no trouble believing that this year has been at least ~0.5 deg warmer than either of those periods. The warmth is all subject and the met office is using rather short term means. One should use the 100 year mean, as that would be a climate mean. Those short 30 year means are really only weather means, rather than climate means.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 1, 2009 3:04:54 GMT
My state climate office uses 100 year means for temperature variations. This year in ND we are running over 5F below those mean averages. Quit cold I say....and I do believe it as the low last night was 46, which is 15F below the mean low.
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