|
Post by bevhills on Jun 6, 2009 17:19:21 GMT
Off the a cool start here in the USA. Snow in S. Dakota June 6th. Trouble getting into the 90's in the SouthEast. Cool in the Northeast.
Here in S. California we've had very unusual rain and thunderstorms accompanied by cool weather. Two people struck and killed by lightning in the Los Angeles area. Lightning is so rare here that people don't know the precautions to take. For this to happen in June is unheard of.
Will the remainder of the summer stay cool or will we see AGW warming?
|
|
|
Post by hiddigeigei on Jun 7, 2009 2:44:23 GMT
Off the a cool start here in the USA. Snow in S. Dakota June 6th. Trouble getting into the 90's in the SouthEast. Cool in the Northeast. Will the remainder of the summer stay cool or will we see AGW warming? You may not see it, but I'm sure you will hear about it.
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Jun 7, 2009 2:55:28 GMT
Off the a cool start here in the USA. Snow in S. Dakota June 6th. Trouble getting into the 90's in the SouthEast. Cool in the Northeast. Here in S. California we've had very unusual rain and thunderstorms accompanied by cool weather. Two people struck and killed by lightning in the Los Angeles area. Lightning is so rare here that people don't know the precautions to take. For this to happen in June is unheard of. Will the remainder of the summer stay cool or will we see AGW warming? Will the remainder of the summer stay cool or will we see AGW warming? That would be the logical fallacy of the excluded middle; maybe try rephrasing.
|
|
|
Post by slh1234 on Jun 9, 2009 4:46:09 GMT
Off the a cool start here in the USA. Snow in S. Dakota June 6th. Trouble getting into the 90's in the SouthEast. Cool in the Northeast. Here in S. California we've had very unusual rain and thunderstorms accompanied by cool weather. Two people struck and killed by lightning in the Los Angeles area. Lightning is so rare here that people don't know the precautions to take. For this to happen in June is unheard of. Will the remainder of the summer stay cool or will we see AGW warming? You have to be very careful picking out spots and quoting the weather. My travels last week took me to Seattle, then up to Vancouver, BC. They had a heat trough over them through most of the week, so it was sunny, and upper 80's (f) there. It blew over Friday and the temps dropped very significantly, but my understanding from my bro (who lives in Poulsbo, and works in Seattle) was that it hit 90 in Seattle on Thursday. I was in Vancouver that day, and it was upper 80's there. I noticed the weather on my weather gadgets (that I always have set to look at home, and where I'm travelling to), and the temp in Seattle on Thursday was 14 degrees fahrenheit WARMER than in San Jose, CA where I live (when I'm not on the road). So you can point to snowfall in South Dakota on June 6th, but others can point to record heat in the Pacific North West. But now, that warm weather is gone from Seattle and Vancouver. (But interestingly, we're once again cooler in San Jose than they are in Seattle ... ) No point other than to say, "Don't get too excited about anecdotes."
|
|
|
Post by poitsplace on Jun 9, 2009 6:45:29 GMT
Because of the lags, I believe the fading La Nina has already sealed the fate of summer...it will be cooler. The only question now is the temperature of the northern hemisphere winter.
|
|
|
Post by glc on Jun 9, 2009 10:58:56 GMT
Because of the lags, I believe the fading La Nina has already sealed the fate of summer...it will be cooler.
Cooler than what?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jun 9, 2009 13:42:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by poitsplace on Jun 9, 2009 15:06:08 GMT
Because of the lags, I believe the fading La Nina has already sealed the fate of summer...it will be cooler.Cooler than what? Cooler as in (and this is just a guesstimate) UAH/RSS anomalies around .1C give or take .1C while some AGW proponents are expecting anomalies this summer to soar back up to nearly .5C (god knows why...it's a relative scale and summers lately have had a lower anomaly)
|
|
|
Post by socold on Jun 10, 2009 19:18:26 GMT
Because of the lags, I believe the fading La Nina has already sealed the fate of summer...it will be cooler.Cooler than what? Cooler as in (and this is just a guesstimate) UAH/RSS anomalies around .1C give or take .1C while some AGW proponents are expecting anomalies this summer to soar back up to nearly .5C (god knows why...it's a relative scale and summers lately have had a lower anomaly) ENSO, UAH&RSS largely follow SST. In fact you can generally get a sneak preview of where UAH&RSS will be in about 3 months time by looking at SST now www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2000/scale:2/offset:-0.4/plot/uah/from:2000
|
|
|
Post by tacoman25 on Jun 10, 2009 19:49:45 GMT
Cooler as in (and this is just a guesstimate) UAH/RSS anomalies around .1C give or take .1C while some AGW proponents are expecting anomalies this summer to soar back up to nearly .5C (god knows why...it's a relative scale and summers lately have had a lower anomaly) ENSO, UAH&RSS largely follow SST. In fact you can generally get a sneak preview of where UAH&RSS will be in about 3 months time by looking at SST now www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2000/scale:2/offset:-0.4/plot/uah/from:2000It's interesting how much the big drop in 2004 stands out on that map. UAH dropped way lower than you would think based on SSTA.
|
|
|
Post by socold on Jun 10, 2009 21:30:17 GMT
I have wondered about that 2004 drop before. It's also pronounced in GISTEMP which suggests it was caused by a very negative anomaly in Antarctica. Dropping to as low as -6C anomaly in July of that year. Arctic is also slightly negative then too. Hadcrut doesn't include higher latitudes which might explain the difference as in Hadcrut3 it's far smaller.
|
|
|
Post by poitsplace on Jun 11, 2009 6:01:21 GMT
I have wondered about that 2004 drop before. It's also pronounced in GISTEMP which suggests it was caused by a very negative anomaly in Antarctica. Dropping to as low as -6C anomaly in July of that year. Arctic is also slightly negative then too. Hadcrut doesn't include higher latitudes which might explain the difference as in Hadcrut3 it's far smaller. It probably just sticks out because it's in the middle of a plateau. You don't notice similar dives and spikes during the warming period because there was more noise in general.
|
|
|
Post by msphar on Jun 11, 2009 13:24:38 GMT
|
|
|
Post by kmatjhwy on Jun 11, 2009 17:59:40 GMT
Here in Jackson Hole, Wyo., it has been clouds, rain, and snow in the Higher Elevations almost on a daily basis. It seems as if every spring here is very much unsettled. Last year we also had a very unsettled and wet spring. And all the forecasts predict that they weather will continue for at least another several weeks. I find as this is interesting. Also up in the High Country, all the mountains are still very much covered with snow. It seems as if in most years, the weather does seem to become more settled here in the middle of the month. But still like I said earlier, they are forecasting this unsettled weather with rain and the much cooler temps about on a daily basis to continue for the somewhat forseeable future, the next two weeks at least.
|
|
|
Post by william on Jun 12, 2009 18:21:33 GMT
We might also add in addition to a cool summer, a wet summer.
I see the UK summer 2007 and summer 2008 had the highest rainfall amounts since 1914.
Australia is now experience exceptionally high rainfall. Cold and cloudy.
The tropics 2007 and 2008 had the highest rainfall in 20 years.
From a mechanism standpoint high GCR appears to also affect the jet stream. Locations that are not experience a wet summer, such as Western Canada, are experiencing a dry summer due to the change in the jet stream.
The area where I live, Calgary, Alberta, has been exceptionally cold, cloudy, however, there has not been above average rainfall in this area. Surrounding areas are experiencing drought without hot summer temperatures.
|
|