solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 2, 2011 20:26:37 GMT
Solar Flux for March 2011 was 122.9. The highest it's been since 2003
SSN of 56.2(Highest since 2003)
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 29, 2011 21:30:57 GMT
I put in the numbers and it seems the Monthly solar flux for March 2011 will be around 115, it is 115 so far and it seems it will stay there for the next few days. I decided see how it looks on the graph. solar cycle reving up by Stormlover87, on Flickr It stands out vividly. As you can see it is the highest since 2004
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 8, 2011 1:41:44 GMT
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 8, 2011 0:45:46 GMT
2300 UTC Flux 162 SFI. what do ya know it did get to 160. though if it goes any high i will have forecast too low.
The main reason why the space-weather Canada site had the mess up is that up here everything is computerized, we don't have that guy who stops an error from getting out.
Apparently it's cheaper than paying someone to do it right
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 7, 2011 22:32:49 GMT
Looks like some kind of error with the Penticton solar flux at 20:00. I think it's broken! Observed Flux Density : 938.6 939!, that's huge. no way that is accurate, even with flares www.spaceweather.gc.ca/sx-4-eng.php
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 7, 2011 19:22:39 GMT
Solar flux reading 152 today at 17:00. Giving all the low level M flares i don't quite trust it. though I did say in my last post that the solar flux could get up to 160
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 6, 2011 6:45:18 GMT
Based on the current 2 huge groups and the real possibility of 1165 becoming a huge group as well. I can see the SSN getting as high as 150 and the flux as high as 160. There are also 2 active regions just over the limb that will come to view in a few days. Generally I would not be surprised to see the flux above 100 for the next week. It seems to me that SC24 will be unique among the other 23 cycles. It seems to have these epic spikes in activity with low activity in between. Much like SC14. Though only time will tell as I think 23 cycles is way to few to know what the sun can dish out. The sun is billions of years old so how can we base SC24 on just 23 out of millions of cycles.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 18, 2011 1:35:35 GMT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_6h.htmlThat helps. Note the jump in speed, temp, and density. Likely signaling the arrival of the CME. The field is strongly north so I don't think this leading edge will trigger much
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 15, 2011 5:10:34 GMT
That's the forecast over the next 3 days. Fairly large winter storm coming in from BC. IT is not expected to clear up around here until Friday
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 15, 2011 4:17:38 GMT
Becoming cloudy in the evening. Snow beginning after midnight. Low minus 24. What a waste of an X2 solar flare. If you have clear skies count your blessings.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 14, 2011 7:02:11 GMT
Yep flux close at 107 today, a new record for the cycle. also set a sunspot number of 84. Looking back I noticed that my prediction of 50 spotless days was off by just one day. I'm surprised at got that spot on considering my prediction of 60 daily sunspots by Dec 2010 did no come to pass.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Dec 24, 2010 21:36:10 GMT
In my area the 1930s, and 1940s were marked with severe drought. Known as the "dirty 30s" caused a lot of farmers to go broke and likely caused urbanization on the plains.
The last 10 years do in fact show frequent drought though a small break every 2 or 3 years. Such Breaks were 2004, 2005, and 2010 when the summers were generally soaking wet. The worst drought years this century ware in order. 2009,2002,2003,2001, and 2006.
Some of the notable years in my area the 30s and 40s were... 1924: in some areas the hottest day in July(near 38C/100F)) was followed by the coldest night ever(near -50C/-58F) in December 1931: A February as warm as April. Not one day fell below freezing and many days as high as 18C(65F) 1936: 45C/113F(Canada's highest ever Temperature) set in Saskatchewan. Up to 7C warmer than normal in spots 1937: 37.2C(98F) in June in Edmonton 1938: still the hottest September ever. 8C warmer than normal 1939: 32C(90F) in April followed by a hot summer. 1941: More areas see 37C(98F) during a July that was up to 6C above normal.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Dec 21, 2010 20:25:34 GMT
I've made a list of changes I personally need to do to adapt to the change. Btw i live in Alberta, Canada the first 3 are VITAL
1: Important! Finish rest of school and learn a trade to make the money I need to finish the list
2: Cars are suicide! I need a good 4X4 truck in good running conditions, Travel is already hit hard enough and it will only get worse.
3: Good size deep freezer. With longer and more severe winters I'll need to stock up every winter much like those who lived in the 1800s
4: Some land out in the country near a major highway(that gets plowed more often) also with a good size greenhouse as frost even in midsummer will be more likely in the future.
5: A home fit for a 21st century Eskimo, a monolithic dome home. Concrete and extremely effective against the severe winters.
6: Off grid power for when severe winter storms down power lines and bury any effort to repair the grid.
7: Good drought proof water supply, a cool planet is also a dry one.
Yea you got to be hardcore here in Canada when a "mini Ice age" hits, the winters are harsh enough as it is.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Oct 13, 2010 18:43:19 GMT
I find it odd that this years storm caused more damage, the hail was nowhere near as big as 1991. Perhaps It's because this years storm was more of a direct hit on a city near twice the size as it was in 1991.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Sept 30, 2010 16:55:29 GMT
The number an intensity of electrical storms in my area made a considerable increase in the last 3 years. This year was nearly double the activity of each of the last 10 years.
Generally The activity was high in the 1990s, went down quite a lot around 2001-2005 and from 2006 onward has been active The likely reason is that we spent the first years of the 21 century with a severe drought, the low solar activity has cooled the area and now the rain is back. Generally we would be one of the most storm prone areas on the planet if we had the kind of moisture in the eastern part of NA
Also looking at the most active time-frames I can also link -PDO events with Thunderstorms. The worst storm in my exact area hit on July 6 1975 and with it came 4 inch hail and high winds, the result was every single building lost all wind facing windows and suffered severe roof damage. Nearly half the cars in town were written off and Trees were also shredded bare. all this in 13 minutes
The same storm move east and hit the small town of Viking and was so bad that some building were stripped to the plywood, all siding, shingles and windows were stripped bare. Thats what 70mph winds and 4 inch hail can do. The storm is not well known well because it thankfully missed Major cities on it's track.
A storm of the same caliber hit Calgary in 1991 resulting in the costliest hail storm in Canadian history
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