solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Aug 27, 2010 1:19:05 GMT
A "super la-nina" has never really happened before. I would say the events would be as severe as the ones a super El-Nino would be.
A list of calamities that may occur in the event of a -2.5 or stronger La-Nina
-Tipping point in California drought. hundreds of thousands of homes burned in fires - Tornado outbreaks often in the deep south all winter - Severe drought returns to the Canadian prairies and US plains with a vengeance in Summer 2011. - Combined with the current -NAO Much of UK can Expect a winter comparable to a Canadian winter - Moscow gets roasted again in summer 2011 - Trans-canada highway in BC is closed off an on for the entire winter and spring due to record snow pack and rock slides - Severe windstorms hammer the pacific northwest and destroy vast rain forests - Minnesota gets the coldest winter ever recorded
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on May 2, 2010 3:47:08 GMT
as a Canadian MY nation will go extinct if there were to be a glacial maximum.
I don't know who would suffer more, Us northerners being refugees in a tropical country. or those in the tropical nations losing their jobs to refugees from smart northern countries.
I would bet the parts of the earth free of ice would break out in war over the reduced amount of arable land as most of the grain belt will be under miles of ice. The "control powers" of the world are also too far north to escape the horror. Canada, USA, UK, Russia, China, Japan, Germany. basically nearly all G8 nations will be gone if we get a glacial maximum.
The only good nations that will survive it are Singapore, Hong kong, Australia, and the middle east. Ice age mean we go to the Mosque and say goodbye to the church!
The last ice age nearly wiped us out, though we have the tech and smarts to thrive on a cold world we will lose 60% of our population and most of our cities to war or ice
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 25, 2010 2:51:07 GMT
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtmlwww.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gifIs the growth of that cooler area just south of the equator the main driver behind the El-Nino values weakening? I thought El-Nino weakens to nothing, not getting pushed aside(the blue area appears to be pushing north). Could this be a El-Nino La-Nina hybrid? as you can see the upper warm area is still in place and even shows a tad bit of growth in the last 2 weeks(first link) Also because of the off balance nature of the warm water could it be driven north over the summer? Also is it normal for for warm El-Nino water to get pushed aside? before
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 10, 2010 15:43:38 GMT
www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gifLook at the cooler water in the eastern Indian ocean. +Indian ocean dipole It shows the likely development of La-Nina for 2010/11. The main thing I'm looking at is the PDO and NAO and how they will shape up in the coming months. it would probably explain a few things. El-Nino by itself puts the colder air in the south of the USA, the -NAO and -PDO amplified the effect. As a result is was at times warmer in Western Canada than it was in Central Florida. With the likely La-Nina coming next winter I would think Florida will have a nice winter 2010/11. Here are the factors and what the effects are on the rest of 2010. -PDO: cooler summer on the west coast and a Hot summer on the plains and Canadian prairies Neutral NAO: Hot spells in the Midwest, northeast, maritime, and eastern coast, nothing to honk about but way better than the last two years. Shift to La-Nina: winter is late in the east and early in the west.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 8, 2010 2:13:49 GMT
Have you actually thought of how particles and energy coming from outside the solar system can effect the climate of earth.
Here are a few things I'm noting
- The sun was weaker hundred-millions of years ago yet we did not have a single ice cap on earth at times. The real cause of our finicky climate is the continents themselves blocking a lot of ocean circulation. - Interstellar dust, during solar minimum it may get to earth, depositing energized particles into our atmosphere, obviously that will have an effect.
- Magnetic reversal, we are hundreds of thousands of years overdue and signs are showing our late reversal is in progress.
My belief is that climate of the earth is controlled by countless factors. Warming happens when more factors lean to warming than cooling, and vice-versa From 1998 onward more than 75% of the factors were leaning to warming. Currently 55% are leaning to cooling(new coolers are the -PDO,-AO and the Sun) Co2, Methane, and land use change are still leaning heavily towards warming.
Once we get into the next solar max we should see 60% of the factors lean towards warming, as more gradual warming than we are used to. Around 2020 we may see a 70% lean towards cooling that will last a few decades and by 2070 we should be back at pre-industrial levels
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 15, 2010 0:10:36 GMT
A not about February Temps. While the USA had one of the coldest winters ever it was the complete opposite In Canada
Winter 2009/2010 turned out as the Warmest in Canadian history. Nationally the Temps was 4C above the norm beating the old Record of 3.9C set in 2005/06. Had it not been for the brutally cold December it would have been even warmer.
The very strong arctic osculation literally sucked all the air out of the arctic and into the USA and Europe, and much faster than the polar air could recharge.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Mar 1, 2010 22:28:28 GMT
The lack of solar activity and El-Nino domination brings me to say the summer may resemble the period form 1914 to 1928. In my neck of the woods that was the time of some of the hottest back to back summers.
Summer temps at least 3C above normal for more than 10 years in a row, and very short periods with cooler summers
My View is that low solar activity weakens air and ocean currents, thus the heavily populated areas of eastern north American and Europe miss out on the heat normally brought up by the jet stream. Areas normally cooled by wind and ocean currents get major heat waves and cold snaps. A good example is the cold winter of 2008/09 in the pacific northwest and the Record heatwave the following summer. Also this favors blocking, and that can further lead to extreme temperatures.
Also affected are the foothills and western plains(Alberta,Montana,Wyoming,Colorado, and Texas). These areas will get the worst of the summer heat this summer.
Though with solar activity on the rise the Pacific NW will have a more temperate summer this year, and the heat will have a chance to get to the great lakes.
My forecast says a Hot and humid(but short) summer for the great lakes, summer along the Rockies will linger well into October
-The hottest weather in May and June will be in the Midwest, -Most of July's heat will be from Montana/Alberta to the great lakes.
-The hottest August weather will be in the Northern plains,Prairies, and the Southwest
- In Sept-Oct the heat will favor the Rocky mountains and northern Canada
- The winter of 2010-2011 may be milder
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 18, 2010 21:01:29 GMT
What is the chance of the El-Nino lingering the whole year. The last time it did that was in 1987. A concern in my area as an F4 twister touched down just 25 miles from my town and hit a major city.
Whether the 1987 tornado has something to do with the "summer El-Nino" I don't know
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 16, 2010 2:46:07 GMT
It seems El-Nino flared up a bit on Feb 10 towards the east.
+0.5 anomaly seemed to dissipate off the coast of South America, but is now starting to come back.
Not sure if it's reviving or simply a dieing breath. Most likely the dieing breath
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 13, 2010 8:01:13 GMT
so there is no way of knowing if the sun was spotless for a whole 24 hours unless i record it myself.
Solar flux is averaged, why not Sunspot count!
if the flux today was first measured at 100 but was averaged out to 96
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 13, 2010 5:04:20 GMT
Things don't warm uniformly. As for El-nino, I predict this Elnino will behave like the 1986-88 El-nino, It will remain above 1 for the entire year with a 2nd peak in November
About climate change in my area We have not beaten to the records set in the early 20th century. The records are as follows: Edmonton: 37.2C(1937) Red Deer: 36.1C(1941) Calgary: 36.1C(1919) Regina: 43.3C(1937) Winnipeg: 40.6C(1949)
example: In Calgary, Alberta there was a 14 year long string of hot summers in a row from 1913 to 1926. The monthly mean highs during this period were around 2-6C above average. the warmest high was around 28C, the lowest was 24C Also wasn't' that the last time we had so many spotless days?
The latest ongoing string of hot summers is 4 years from 2006 to present, 2006 and 2007 were the hottest of the bunch and broke records thanks to warm nights
2008 and 2009 had the hottest weather in August and September 2010 is Expected to be the 5th hot summer in a row
Latest modern records that were close: Edmonton: 35.6C(Aug 18, 2008) Calgary: 34.3C(Aug 3 2001) Red Deer: 34.4C(Sept 23 3009) Regina: 37.4C(July 6 2007) Winnipeg: 35.9C(Aug 19 2003)
The extreme heat that baked the pacific northwest last summer may show that we have entered a new string of very hot summers along 50N, we will see.
Being at 52N I live at a very dangerous latitude. My climate becomes arid with severe storms during warm periods, and becomes extremely cold during cool periods. Both are bad for local food production as warm=drought and cool=midsummer frost
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 13, 2010 3:27:52 GMT
That's where I got my data, and see it shows the 2 spotless days
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 12, 2010 23:51:52 GMT
Ok then, where can I find better data for sunspots as the official SSN was 0 for those 2 days on the charts HERE, on solarcycle24.com, and on spaceweather.com
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 11, 2010 0:16:04 GMT
I think spotless days in 2010 will be dramatically lower than 2009. Less than 50 spotless days for 2010
Jan 2010: 2 spotless days Feb 2010: None so far and it's halfway through the month. Also some of the highest sunspot counts(50+) in 3 or 4 years.
There may be perhaps more spotless days this year but it seems that it will be far less than 2009
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