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Post by thermostat on May 25, 2013 2:52:44 GMT
I feel like the Dad coming back to find the kids jumping on the bed.
More to the point, do you guys really believe that the Arctic Sea Ice is doing just fine? Or not?
Also, are present events from the past 10 years just some natural cyle; an undefined, unrecognized, unexplainable thing. Or can you articulate what this cycle is?
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Post by thermostat on May 20, 2013 3:08:27 GMT
It is interesting to observe how myopic perspectives shape individual perception.
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Post by thermostat on May 18, 2013 4:50:33 GMT
Just wondering, did anybody here get the memo, Sea Ice Extent is not the relevant measure? It is Sea Ice Volume that counts. fyi, Sea Ice volume is way low. That is not good at the start of the melt season. Not good? Explain yourself. Icefisher, While seasonal ice covers some surface area right now, it is the thickness of that ice that is relevant in determining how much heat energy is required to melt that ice. Thus, the measure of Arctic Sea Ice Extent is not sufficient to quantitate the total mass of the Arctic Sea Ice. It is the total mass that is most relevant in order to anticipate the coming melt.
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Post by thermostat on May 18, 2013 3:30:40 GMT
Just wondering, did anybody here get the memo, Sea Ice Extent is not the relevant measure? It is Sea Ice Volume that counts.
fyi, Sea Ice volume is way low. That is not good at the start of the melt season.
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Post by thermostat on May 13, 2013 4:28:49 GMT
There was some interesting stuff in the literature-news the week describing how accumulated heat in the oceans is making its way into the Arctic and melting ice. Current results make sense based on such observations.
Given the current thin ice, I would not bet on a big recovery this year.
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Post by thermostat on May 11, 2013 3:26:31 GMT
I think we're at the phase where this becomes very difficult to predict. As Prof Waldhams observes in the piece above "In the end it will just melt away quite suddenly"...... Should we run into a 'perfect storm' year (17' is the 10yr cycle for one) then ice levels and conditions are perfectly poised for a 'sudden melt out'? The older ,thicker ice is all over areas bound to melt out (over an average year) and 2m FY ice is also destined to be gone come sept (in an average year) so if we up temps or clear shies over the top melt end of the season we could find ourselves dipping below the magic 1 million mark this Sept. If you think on it a million km pack of 15cm thick FY ice left in late Aug will 'flash melt' over less than a week. We could end up with predominantly weak FY ice come mid Aug so the rest depends on how quickly the early ice goes so as to allow the ocean surface to heat up enough to take out later season ice. I do not think that there is any way of ending higher than last year but will it dip below the 'seasonal' 1 million km level? I'll tell you in Sept? Early losses due to 'Crackopalypse' breakages and drift and then steady melt ...if we get another GAC12 in Aug we could see that event tip us into ice free as well! Northern sea route looks like an early open but then so does the Deep Chanel NW Passage? graywolf, Useful insights. 'Crackopalypse' was really something, I agree. I posted previously that I was not making too much of this event, but it certainly testified to the decrease in volume of the ice. Time will tell. It appears that the question at hand is whether the 2013 minimum will be even less than 2012, or will we see a pause. There is nothing to indicate that 2013 is shaping up as a year for dramatic Arctic Sea Ice recovery.
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Post by thermostat on May 11, 2013 3:14:43 GMT
Okay, time to start speculating. Will 2013 be anything like 2012? or is dontgetoutmuch correct, we just had an arctic recovery.
I see no physical reason to predict any sort of significant recovery in the 2013 Arctic Sea Ice minimum since there is no plausible geophysical mechanism that could drive this. Rather, the 2013 sea ice minimum outcome appears to be 'the weather' vs 'global warming' (in particular vs 'arctic amplification')
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Post by thermostat on May 9, 2013 3:21:45 GMT
Hey Bros! what's coming? dontgetout much, do you actually believe we just had a dramatic recovery? Reaaly? icefisher, sigurdur; what is next for the Arctic? The 2013 melt has now begun. What do you forsee?
Yes, it is time again to start thinking about predicting the 2013 Arctic Sea Ice minimum.
I'll begin by suggesting that 2013 is likely to be similar to 2012.
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Post by thermostat on May 9, 2013 3:21:35 GMT
Hey Bros! what's coming?
dontgetout much, do you actually believe we just had a dramatic recovery? Really?
icefisher, sigurdur; what is next for the Arctic? The 2013 melt has now begun. What do you forsee?
Yes, it is time again to start thinking about predicting the 2013 Arctic Sea Ice minimum.
I'll begin by suggesting that 2013 is likely to be similar to 2012... or worse...
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Post by thermostat on May 6, 2013 5:28:29 GMT
There r many well known mechanisms that drive Arctic ice extent. I know.
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Post by thermostat on May 6, 2013 4:10:20 GMT
Did anyone see that interesting paper that came out in Nature Climate Change last week? "Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent." www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1884.html"The summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has decreased in recent decades, a feature that has become one of the most distinct signals of the continuing climate change" The authors show evidence for a previously underappreciated phenomenon that is driving the observed Arctic melt. It will be interesting to see how this new observation interacts with other processes driving Arctic Amplification. Tstat: Did you actually read the paper? Or only the abstract? Let me know will ya? Yes, I downloaded the PDF from the library and read the whole thing. It is quite interesting. I am interested in understanding how Arctic Amplification will affect the Arctic Sea Ice. I am particularly intrerested in understanding the physical mechanisms driving the ongoing sea ice melting.
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Post by thermostat on May 6, 2013 1:57:43 GMT
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Post by thermostat on May 6, 2013 1:42:47 GMT
Did anyone see that interesting paper that came out in Nature Climate Change last week? "Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent." www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1884.html"The summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has decreased in recent decades, a feature that has become one of the most distinct signals of the continuing climate change" The authors show evidence for a previously underappreciated phenomenon that is driving the observed Arctic melt. It will be interesting to see how this new observation interacts with other processes driving Arctic Amplification.
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Post by thermostat on May 6, 2013 1:32:34 GMT
A few comments;
Radiant wrote, "People believe what they want to believe." Well said. It is much better to base understanding of the Arctic Sea Ice on scientific facts and evidence as opposed to ideology.
dontgetoutmuch wrote, "Isn't it weird that after thirty years of melting ice, the level of sea ice is above average?" He clearly dontgetoutmuch.
Pooh quotes the Daily Mail and Anthony Watts as if they are relevant sources!
Not sure what Radiant's latest point is supposed to be, but, no surpise here; no data no references, no science - just attitude and opinion.
Hey, but the annual melt is progressing. It's getting to be time to cast bets.
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Post by thermostat on May 4, 2013 5:35:25 GMT
It is amazing the things that denialists will believe/cling to. As I always say, it takes heat to melt ice. Isn't it weird that after thirty years of melting ice, the level of sea ice is above average? dontgetoutmuch, You wrote, "Isn't it weird that after thirty years of melting ice, the level of sea ice is above average?" Well it sure would be wierd if it were actually true. It is not clear what measure of Arctic Sea Ice you refer to when you refer to 'the level' of sea ice. What are you talking about?
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