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Post by thermostat on Jun 10, 2013 4:30:13 GMT
Radiant by tag , dull by nature? Are you really asking the readership to think that the post ice age meltdown has actually reversed over the past 1,000yrs??? We have all of the ice shelf's ( now lost) from the north shore of Ellesmere crying for an answer ( ESP. the critters that developed , over many thousands of years , to be unique from their cousins in open water, that we logged , and then lost, when their shelf calved 8 years ago........) The Arctic is still , though under perfect ice preservation conditions ,shedding 400,000kmsq ( Arctic Basin C.T. figures)over the last 2 days..... Have you seen how long this central basin Low is set to last??? Didn't you line up with the folk that said GAC12 cost us all of our records last year or are you brave enough to say Arctic cyclones preserve ice over summer.... the pre -07' records show this quite clearly??? Whoops there goes another rubber Tree Plant..... Graywolf, Just a short note to support your valiant effort to promote logic and reason on this forum. Unfortunately ideology appears to dominate here.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 8, 2013 3:45:25 GMT
Graywolf, this may not be the right thread, but can you update us on your catastrophic atmospheric methane growth prediction? How much has methane increased? I second the motion for thermo to list his scientific references for Antarctic Ice melt (on whatever thread of his choosing). Thermo is smart. Thermo has a PhD. Thermo knows geophysics. Thermo demands others show references. Thermo's got cred. Just ask him.
I bet Thermo will even throw in some scientific sources on the subject of catastrophic methane while he's at it.
But I ain't betting much.
throttleup, Do you have a relevant point about the Arctic Sea Ice or are you just being yourself?
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Post by thermostat on Jun 8, 2013 3:41:24 GMT
Sigurdur, Your assertion here contrasts with published evidence. Could you provide a citation in support? Thermostat, I keep checking back for your reference to the published evidence which shows the ice mass in the antarctic is significantly decreasing. Could you let us know where we can access this? duwayne, As I have posted many times, I am interested in the Arctic Sea Ice. There is an extensive collection of scientific literature that describes the ongoing melting of the Antarctic Ice sheet that is accessible via the standard academic channels. You can access it by querying the scientific literature. This is how scientists do it. I'm sorry duwayne but I do not have the time to be your baby sitter.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 8, 2013 3:27:10 GMT
Based on current ice volume and observed trends over the past 10 years, I would guess somewhere between 4.0 and 3.7 million sq km for minimum sea ice extent in 2013. Thus, if asked to guess a specific number, it would be the mid point, 3.85 milliom sq km.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 6, 2013 4:49:55 GMT
Thermostat. Western Antarctic is loosing mass. The main Antarctic is gaining mass. And overcomes the small reduction in the western pen. As I stated via the ice extent thread in regards to the Arctic, my guess of 3.5 may b to high given the fragmenting observed to date. Don't confuse the two ice areas. They are behaving very differently. Sigurdur, Your assertion here contrasts with published evidence. Could you provide a citation in support?
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Post by thermostat on Jun 6, 2013 3:08:35 GMT
Okay,
I've been off making science and see that meantime nobody has posted anything of substance, although I must give a shout-out to Radiant for his post questioning whether this Arctic Ice thread is the Arctic Ice thread. Radiant wrote, "Thermostat also seems to have made his mind up that this is the Arctic sea ice thread. Has it ever been the Arctic sea ice thread??".
Sigurdur, fyi at the other pole ongoing observations are showing that the ice sheet is losing mass, ie, it is melting. I suggest that you query the scientific literature if you are interested, especially regarding West Antarctica. But, again, this is the Arctic Sea Ice thread.
Regardless, this early season cyclone sure mixed it up at this early stage in the melt season. For those who might be confused, the ice right now ranges from a few feet thick to 10 feet thick or more (but there is very little of that kind of 10 feet thick ice left; basically what is left is pushed up against the Canadian Archipeligo in a few places.) Instead, expansive areas of the Arctic Sea have first year ice 3-5 feet thick, subject to melt with ordinary summer conditions. The observation that this ice has already become so fragmented enhances the potential for melting.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 2, 2013 2:52:26 GMT
sigurdur,
Given that your mind is made up for ideological reasons, I would suggest to forum participants, 'heads up'.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 1, 2013 23:43:37 GMT
Regarding the Arctic Sea Ice,the observed ongoing thinning of the Arctic Sea Ice has been showing up with the early fragmentation of the ice pack as seen from satellite images. This week interest has been on a persistent 'arctic cyclone' which appears to be related to yet another jet stream blocking event. Bottom line, this current,persistent cyclone appears to be further fragmenting the already thin ice pack in the central arctic ocean. Given what happened last August, speculation is that this early season event has the potential to accelerate the 2013 sea ice melt.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 1, 2013 23:30:20 GMT
don't worry the Antarctic is working to balance things up. the combined number is now above average, clearly an indicator of a looming temperature collapse. still religions need icons to worship the arctic is a beauty! nonentropic, I take it that you have not been following the ongoing decrease in mass in the Antarctic Ice Sheet, as well as the research on the effect of this melting on Antarctic Sea Ice extent. For example, see "Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion". Nature Geoscience 6,376–379(2013) But, this is the Arctic Sea Ice thread.
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Post by thermostat on May 29, 2013 3:15:27 GMT
As the 2013 Arctic melt season gets going the question is whether or not 2013 will meet/surpass the 2012 minimum or not. See the Arctic Sea Ice Monitor for a popular source of Sea Ice extent data. www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm3489063, sq km is the 2012 minimum. A key element is the distribution and thickness of 'multiyear ice'; see "Oldest ice continues to decline" nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/04/ Related to this "Satellite estimates show continued thinning" same link as above, just scroll down. Obviously, thin ice melts more readily than thick ice. Less obviously, first year ice melts more readily than multiyear ice. Total Sea Ice volume is the most relevant factor; that is, how much ice is there? Satellite measurements now corroborate the calculations of total Arctic Sea Ice Volume made by scientists at the University of Washington which indicate that sea ice volume is at the lowest level observed in the satellite era psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2_CY.pngIn addition prior to 2012, 2007 was the observed Arctic Sea Ice minimum. 2007 was characterized by an unusual weather pattern that drove a substantial amount of sea ice out of the Arctic at the same time that it brought exceptionally warm air into the region. At the same time, warm water entered the Arctic Sea from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait. None of these things happened in 2012, which had more typical Arctic weather for most of the summer, especially during June and July when the ice just kept melting in spite of the prevailing weather pattern. (Of course there was the historic storm in August which re-distributed a lot of heat already in place... Arctic experts concluded that the monster storm did not cause the minimum, but rather made certain highly vulnerable regions melt out more rapidly.) So, it is now 2013. What is in store for the Arctic Sea Ice? Time wil tell.
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Post by thermostat on May 29, 2013 2:37:34 GMT
Radiant, 1) Are you proposing that sea ice extent in April and May is a useful indicator of September Sea Ice minimum? 2) The weather in the Arctic has been anonymously cool this Spring, as indicated by the DMI Arctic Temperatures Graph, consistent with the early rate of reduction on Sea Ice Extent. What happens if the weather changes? 3) The fast ice at Barrow recently breaks up around mid July seaice.alaska.edu/gi/data/barrow_breakup/2009/Melt-out.pngBarrow fast ice is fun to watch; what exactly does it tell us about the Arctic?
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Post by thermostat on May 27, 2013 4:07:16 GMT
These images from Watts up show a comparison between 2013 and 2007 May 2013 seems to have far fewer thin ice patches than May 2007 I'm still hoping for a recovery this year Neilhamp, Everbody is hoping for a recovery, but I'm curious, what would constitute a recovery as you see it? You can use the IJIS graph. www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
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Post by thermostat on May 27, 2013 3:55:52 GMT
Here is an interesting analysis by Chris Reynolds who measured the thickness of the Arctic Sea Ice across the Arctic Sea and found that the present ice has the largest area of ice less than 2 m thick that has been recorded in the satellite era. dosbat.blogspot.co.at/2013/04/nosedive.html#moreAgain, surface area is a superficial measure, the issue is how much ice actually remains.
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Post by thermostat on May 27, 2013 3:31:27 GMT
These images from Watts up show a comparison between 2013 and 2007 May 2013 seems to have far fewer thin ice patches than May 2007 I'm still hoping for a recovery this year Neilhamp, What you cannot see from these images is the Sea Ice thickness. That is the important difference between the present state of the Arctic Sea Ice and the way it was back in May 2007. Think about it. It is not simply about the area covered by ice; it is also about how thick that ice is.
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Post by thermostat on May 25, 2013 3:10:39 GMT
It's about to be June. Looking at the Arctic Sea Ice and what is about to happen in the melt season, I think the reduction in Arctic Sea Ice volume over the past 10+ years is the key consideration in figuring what will happen during the 2013 melt season psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/In particular, extensive regions of the Arctic Sea are now covered by sea ice so thin that this ice is likely to melt during the summer of 2013. A minimum similar to 2012 appears to be very likely.
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