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Post by acidohm on Jan 10, 2017 20:52:16 GMT
As the solar minimum approaches, I hope Kevin puts the spotless day count back up on the main page. It was handy last time. (Hint :-)) If I recall correctly, Leif has not put out an official Max SSN number prediction/projection for cycle 25, but he has stated that the polar field strength has sufficient strength for a moderate cycle. I checked his site, but I didn't see a reference, so I could be mistaken. On the other hand, if memory serves... It seems that most cycles in the past have tended to trail off gradually as they come to a close. Cycle 24 seems like it might be tailing off faster then what we have seen in the past, but only time will tell. The current bout of spotless days could just be a wiggle. This site may help your current run/days in year/spotless percentage of days elapsed to date needs! www.solen.info/solar/And this one does a mean wiggle....  |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 11, 2017 19:16:43 GMT
As the solar minimum approaches, I hope Kevin puts the spotless day count back up on the main page. It was handy last time. (Hint :-)) If I recall correctly, Leif has not put out an official Max SSN number prediction/projection for cycle 25, but he has stated that the polar field strength has sufficient strength for a moderate cycle. I checked his site, but I didn't see a reference, so I could be mistaken. On the other hand, if memory serves... It seems that most cycles in the past have tended to trail off gradually as they come to a close. Cycle 24 seems like it might be tailing off faster then what we have seen in the past, but only time will tell. The current bout of spotless days could just be a wiggle. dontgetoutmuch, check the Cycle 25 thread. Svalgaard predicts Cycle 25 will be about the same and probably not lower than Cycle 24. This site has information on the spotless days. sidc.be/silso/spotless |
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birder
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Post by birder on Jan 11, 2017 19:43:55 GMT
As the solar minimum approaches, I hope Kevin puts the spotless day count back up on the main page. It was handy last time. (Hint :-)) If I recall correctly, Leif has not put out an official Max SSN number prediction/projection for cycle 25, but he has stated that the polar field strength has sufficient strength for a moderate cycle. I checked his site, but I didn't see a reference, so I could be mistaken. On the other hand, if memory serves... It seems that most cycles in the past have tended to trail off gradually as they come to a close. Cycle 24 seems like it might be tailing off faster then what we have seen in the past, but only time will tell. The current bout of spotless days could just be a wiggle. This site may help your current run/days in year/spotless percentage of days elapsed to date needs! www.solen.info/solar/And this one does a mean wiggle.... On WUWT website Isvalgaard said in the comments (scroll down) Cycle 25 will probably be a bit stronger than SC24, perhaps SSN=125. |
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Post by acidohm on Jan 11, 2017 22:40:16 GMT
Nothing to back this up...but I seem to remember hearing several times that each second cycle have more similarities then the cycles next to them?? ie all odds relate to each other as do all evens?? so we'd expect cycle 26 to be more similar to 24....
Then, however....I guess the amplitude of cycles might never change??? mmmh....wish id saved that tidbit...
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pavel
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Post by pavel on Jan 15, 2017 15:38:45 GMT
![]() Inside the sun is a so-called meridional flow ,which is responsible for the appearance of the solar cycle. In short, the form of this flow is responsible for the distribution of sunspots on the solar surface.On the basis of image I currently have,I can say, there is at least 55 months delay in occurrence of cycle 25. I cant send this image because system is teling mi image have to big file size,anyway its something wrong.You can find this image in work named: LARGE SCALE FLOWS IN THE SOLAR INTERIOR H. M. Antia, you can googled. If solar cycle 24 will end this year (8.5 years long) there will be at least 7 years absence in appearance of spots. Look like we heading into Maunder type minimum. I hope this is not true because we never be prepared for this kind event.http://kswrc.kasi.re.kr/apspm2015/data/presentations/f3-01.pdf |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 15, 2017 19:05:47 GMT
Inside the sun is a so-called meridional flow ,which is responsible for the appearance of the solar cycle. In short, the form of this flow is responsible for the distribution of sunspots on the solar surface.On the basis of image I currently have,I can say, there is at least 55 months delay in occurrence of cycle 25. I cant send this image because system is teling mi image have to big file size,anyway its something wrong.You can find this image in work named: LARGE SCALE FLOWS IN THE SOLAR INTERIOR H. M. Antia, you can googled. If solar cycle 24 will end this year (8.5 years long) there will be at least 7 years absence in appearance of spots. Look like we heading into Maunder type minimum. I hope this is not true because we never be prepared for this kind event. Here is the link to the paper. arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/9906252v1.pdfPavel, are you saying there is some evidence that Cycle 24 will only be 8.5 years long? |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2017 19:12:16 GMT
This would not be the 1st time this has happened Duwayne. In the past when the cycle became short it was not a productive outcome for earth's inhabitants.
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pavel
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Post by pavel on Jan 15, 2017 23:43:24 GMT
This would not be the 1st time this has happened Duwayne. In the past when the cycle became short it was not a productive outcome for earth's inhabitants. .http://kswrc.kasi.re.kr/apspm2015/data/presentations/f3-01.pdf Check this one ,is correct |
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pavel
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Post by pavel on Jan 16, 2017 0:01:41 GMT
This would not be the 1st time this has happened Duwayne. In the past when the cycle became short it was not a productive outcome for earth's inhabitants. .http://kswrc.kasi.re.kr/apspm2015/data/presentations/f3-01.pdf Check this one ,is correct Yes you are right ,this time, we are 10 times more and, in addition, we have magnetic reversal. No didn't saw any evidence in solar physics community. Let se how things goin on. Southern hemisphere is actually with no spots ,only northern hemisphere do some work. I think that in near future we will se collapse of solar activity. I think we have large scale disruption in solar dynamo. |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 16, 2017 18:36:25 GMT
Pavel, if you have a prediction of the length of Cycle 25 what is your prediction and why?
I'm not challenging your prediction. I'm just trying to understand if you have one.
I don't see one in the paper.
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pavel
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Post by pavel on Jan 16, 2017 20:02:28 GMT
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Post by flyfysher on Feb 20, 2017 23:12:48 GMT
I have a dumb question. I noticed on the Solarham website that they often predict coronal holes as they become geoeffective. Where does one get this information? It would be helpful to know when coronal holes are predicted to be geoeffective so that one can plan a trip to try and see the aurora borealis. Absent a CME, I suspect it'd be the next best thing to try and hedge one's bets at seeing the northern lights.
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Post by semimadscientist on Feb 25, 2017 10:51:31 GMT
Sun's Northern hemisphere field strength now dropping: wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html , and the Southern hemisphere's strength has been doing for some time. Seems like we have a repeat of the wobbles of cycle 23 post- maximum. Makes predicting the amplitude of cycle 25 tricky. |
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pavel
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Post by pavel on Mar 14, 2017 6:47:24 GMT
Streams of magnetic field fighting and losing battle with the forces of convection :-) (current situation on the sun). Magnetic field during next cycle 25 may be to weak to form enough strong streams to create spots on solar surface. I m only guessing ,im not physicist i m electrical engineer. So intensity of magnetic field will most important. 3 years ego when I start recognise that something unusual is going on with solar activity I decide start learning. Now I can say, I have independent knowledge base on scientific foundations.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Dec 31, 2018 13:06:14 GMT
31 Dec 2018... Solar cycle 24 is drawing to a close...
There have been 357 spotless days since cycle 24 began fading...
There were 221 spotless days in 2018.
As of today, there have been 15 spotless days in a row.
A number of extremely wimpy and off kilter cycle 25 spots have been identified, but as of now cycle 25 has not started ramping up...
I believe that cycle 24 is projected to transition to cycle 25 around September of 2019, giving us another 180ish spotless days, unless the minimum just goes off the rails...
If this occurs then cycle 24 will have been just short of eleven years long and a little weak.
Does anyone think that there is a chance for an extended minimum? Can cycle 25 hold off until 2020? I know Dr. Svalgaard has a cycle 25 prediction out, but I have not heard anyone mention Livingston & Penn for quite some time, does anyone have any recent information on this? Is it still a thing?
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