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Post by brian0707 on Dec 18, 2009 4:13:26 GMT
Couldn't help but notice in the latest computer images at the NSIDC website a distinct and material ice buildup in the Baltic on the east coast of -------- Denmark.
The ironies abound.
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Post by poitsplace on Dec 18, 2009 4:30:19 GMT
it's the gore effect
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Post by Ratty on Dec 18, 2009 11:40:36 GMT
Gore blimey! I think you're right.
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 18, 2009 14:09:49 GMT
Wow, JAXA data shooting upwards beyond 2008,2007,2006 & 2005 levels I look forward to KIWI's next analysis
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 18, 2009 21:01:14 GMT
Ice is "normal" Alaska side & slightly behind in the Barents. I think we'll see strong ice formation around Newfoundland like last year.
All the signs suggest to me that it is colder than "normal" (79-00) with the exception of the heat from the Atlantic currents holding back the Barents ice. This ocean heat energy has been stored from the years of the grand solar maximum, and will take some years to exit the ocean cycles. (Fortunately, or things would be much colder.)
But the cold will sweep down the Canadian East coast this year, so this is likely to be close to "normal" or above.
Going to be interesting times.
Time to start the 2010 thread!
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 18, 2009 22:05:48 GMT
Running Arctic extent into January: Attachments:
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ew3
New Member
Posts: 11
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Post by ew3 on Dec 18, 2009 23:22:42 GMT
kiwistonewall -
Almost looks like the variations could be related to simple wind direction variations over the years. Stonger wind pushing the ice in one direction creates a smaller total ice area.
Thanks again for all the work you are doing, it's very informative.
Al
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 19, 2009 9:28:48 GMT
kiwistonewall - Almost looks like the variations could be related to simple wind direction variations over the years. Stonger wind pushing the ice in one direction creates a smaller total ice area. Thanks again for all the work you are doing, it's very informative. Al Al, Probably true it may be the wind. So now the next step is to ask 'why does the wind have a different velocity? This is usually caused by the mismatch in surface temperatures causing different levels of convection, but up at the poles the polar vortex is often the main driver and that is affected by disturbances in the stratosphere. Some of these can lead to huge 'breaking waves' in the tropopause events known as 'sudden stratospheric warming'. These and other turbulent stratospheric events can be driven by the solar wind in ways that no-one seems to understand (although I think it is this what Piers Corbyn is trying to use as his forecasting method). The point I am trying to make is that there are many issues involved that are far more complex than 'CO 2 goes up - ice goes down' or even 'average global temperature goes up - ice goes down'
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Post by jimcripwell on Dec 19, 2009 12:24:28 GMT
It could be interesting to see what will happen in the next few days. Iqalit, Nunavut, Canada will have above 0C temperatures, with rain, for the next several days.
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Post by bouboune05 on Dec 19, 2009 14:03:39 GMT
good morning, am new and do not speak English, grieved therefore j 'utilise a translator. My question is about see ice which appeared off Terre Neuve, l 'anomalie is there very cold, is it normal in this period? Thank you for your answers.
Laurent.
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Post by hunter on Dec 20, 2009 14:40:03 GMT
good morning, am new and do not speak English, grieved therefore j 'utilise a translator. My question is about see ice which appeared off Terre Neuve, l 'anomalie is there very cold, is it normal in this period? Thank you for your answers. Laurent. In my opinion, the answer to your question is that nothing that has happened with either weather or climate in the last 150 years is unusual, dangerous or extreme.
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Post by oloflind on Dec 20, 2009 20:09:25 GMT
Nautonnier and hunter, Indeed, it is far more complex than CO2 up = warming up, and it has not been shown that something outside normal natural variation has occurred to climate whatsoever. It is sad that most of the European politicians do not understand these simple facts.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 20, 2009 21:13:25 GMT
Nautonnier and hunter, Indeed, it is far more complex than CO2 up = warming up, and it has not been shown that something outside normal natural variation has occurred to climate whatsoever. It is sad that most of the European politicians do not understand these simple facts. From the recent stories in the press - it would appear that the European politicians understand the facts very well - blaming CO 2 lines their pockets whereas accepting real science may not only remove their profit but also dent their hubris. And looking at how much the Chairman of the IPCC makes out of CO 2 and 'carbon trading' (more than even Al Gore!) you can certainly appreciate his motive.
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Post by FurryCatHerder on Dec 22, 2009 11:14:00 GMT
kiwistonewall - Almost looks like the variations could be related to simple wind direction variations over the years. Stonger wind pushing the ice in one direction creates a smaller total ice area. Thanks again for all the work you are doing, it's very informative. Al If it was just "wind", as some random thing, we wouldn't see the long term downward trend. The mistake of the overly simplistic "CO2 rises, temperatures go up" crowd is that the giant ball of fire in the sky does play a major role. And now that the giant ball of fire in the sky seems to be waking up, we should start seeing a return to CO2-dominated climate behavior, and away from Solar Minimum dominated climate behavior.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 22, 2009 19:22:56 GMT
Only, the sun isn't waking up in any sense - but heading for a maximum of 25-50. We are almost certainly heading for a decade or more of cooling. The Sun's 11 year maximum will the lowest for 100 years or more, and the Earth will continue to cool. The Antarctic trend is clear, and the Arctic would be similar if it wasn't for the residual heat in the ocean currents holding back the ice (to the unsung, but massive benefit of the Europeans)
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