2020 Worldwide Ag Production

[sigurdur]

Jul 8, 2020 23:54:30 GMT missouriboy said:

Here is an article on historical change in China's ag production and demand.  I can find very little on what this year's deluge is doing to expected 2020 China crop yields.  Can't be good.  Not sure I would put much faith in China's "bluff" to cut ag imports.  Perhaps when they decide they want ... we can raise the price.  Do you think there will be a surplus (specific crops) this year Sig?

chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/

The main area being affected is China's soybean belt. This isn't the 1st time this has happened. Last time, don't remember the year, yields were higher because it is a somewhat arid area.

This year, production is forecast to potentially decline 1-2%.

[missouriboy]

Sig.  Comments on the stats and comments in this article.  Seems I saw less media coverage of any poor planting conditions this year versus last.

THIS YEAR’S COLD AND WET SPRING SINKS U.S. WHEAT ACREAGE TO ITS LOWEST LEVELS SINCE USDA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1919 — CORN AND POTATOES DOWN, TOO

electroverse.net/this-years-cold-and-wet-spring-sinks-u-s-wheat-acreage-to-its-lowest-levels-since-usda-records-began/

[acidohm]

Jul 16, 2020 16:00:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Sig.  Comments on the stats and comments in this article.  Seems I saw less media coverage of any poor planting conditions this year versus last.

THIS YEAR’S COLD AND WET SPRING SINKS U.S. WHEAT ACREAGE TO ITS LOWEST LEVELS SINCE USDA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1919 — CORN AND POTATOES DOWN, TOO

electroverse.net/this-years-cold-and-wet-spring-sinks-u-s-wheat-acreage-to-its-lowest-levels-since-usda-records-began/

I've given up looking at electroverse.

Found them 100% publishing nonsense a couple of times, when i pulled them up on FB i got harassed and called an alarmist troll 😁.

Skeptics can be blinkered too...

Cant be bothered to fact check every article so they're in the garbage bin.

[missouriboy]

Jul 16, 2020 18:18:45 GMT acidohm said:

Jul 16, 2020 16:00:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Sig.  Comments on the stats and comments in this article.  Seems I saw less media coverage of any poor planting conditions this year versus last.

THIS YEAR’S COLD AND WET SPRING SINKS U.S. WHEAT ACREAGE TO ITS LOWEST LEVELS SINCE USDA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1919 — CORN AND POTATOES DOWN, TOO

electroverse.net/this-years-cold-and-wet-spring-sinks-u-s-wheat-acreage-to-its-lowest-levels-since-usda-records-began/

I've given up looking at electroverse.

Found them 100% publishing nonsense a couple of times, when i pulled them up on FB i got harassed and called an alarmist troll 😁.

Skeptics can be blinkered too...

Cant be bothered to fact check every article so they're in the garbage bin.

I would NEVER have mistaken you for an alarmist troll Acid.  

[acidohm]

Jul 16, 2020 20:32:49 GMT missouriboy said:

Jul 16, 2020 18:18:45 GMT acidohm said:

I've given up looking at electroverse.

Found them 100% publishing nonsense a couple of times, when i pulled them up on FB i got harassed and called an alarmist troll 😁.

Skeptics can be blinkered too...

Cant be bothered to fact check every article so they're in the garbage bin.

I would NEVER have mistaken you for an alarmist troll Acid.  

Just a regular troll then 😉

[missouriboy]

Jul 16, 2020 20:43:24 GMT acidohm said:

Jul 16, 2020 20:32:49 GMT missouriboy said:

I would NEVER have mistaken you for an alarmist troll Acid.  

Just a regular troll then 😉

Personally, I stay away from bridges.  

[Ratty]

Jul 16, 2020 18:18:45 GMT acidohm said:

[ Snip ]
I've given up looking at electroverse.

Found them 100% publishing nonsense a couple of times, when i pulled them up on FB i got harassed and called an alarmist troll 😁.

Skeptics can be blinkered too...

Cant be bothered to fact check every article so they're in the garbage bin.

I view their stuff warily too.

However, I do use them when it suits my purpose: I guess you could call me a shallow w-h-o-r-e. **

** Shut up, all of you.

[missouriboy]

Jul 17, 2020 0:42:42 GMT Ratty said:

Jul 16, 2020 18:18:45 GMT acidohm said:

[ Snip ]
I've given up looking at electroverse.

Found them 100% publishing nonsense a couple of times, when i pulled them up on FB i got harassed and called an alarmist troll 😁.

Skeptics can be blinkered too...

Cant be bothered to fact check every article so they're in the garbage bin.

I view their stuff warily too.

However, I do use them when it suits my purpose: I guess you could call me a shallow sleeper. **

** Shut up, all of you.

A sleeper cell huh?  What's your sign?

[Ratty]

Jul 17, 2020 1:22:02 GMT missouriboy said:

Jul 17, 2020 0:42:42 GMT Ratty said:

I view their stuff warily too.

However, I do use them when it suits my purpose: I guess you could call me a shallow sleeper (I typed w-h-o-r-e). **

** Shut up, all of you.

A sleeper cell huh?  What's your sign?

It's good to know that someone is taking good care of our sensibilities.

[sigurdur]

Jul 16, 2020 16:00:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Sig.  Comments on the stats and comments in this article.  Seems I saw less media coverage of any poor planting conditions this year versus last.

THIS YEAR’S COLD AND WET SPRING SINKS U.S. WHEAT ACREAGE TO ITS LOWEST LEVELS SINCE USDA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1919 — CORN AND POTATOES DOWN, TOO

electroverse.net/this-years-cold-and-wet-spring-sinks-u-s-wheat-acreage-to-its-lowest-levels-since-usda-records-began/

Market conditions had more to do with that.

[missouriboy]

Jul 17, 2020 5:53:20 GMT Ratty said:

Jul 17, 2020 1:22:02 GMT missouriboy said:

A sleeper cell huh?  What's your sign?

It's good to know that someone is taking good care of our sensibilities.

Lots of S's, I's and T's in there.  And somebody threw in an H.  Which is really just "THIS" scrambled.  

[dontgetoutmuch]

I try to get information from lots of different places, and it gets filed in my brain bank. I imagine that some of this if propaganda or false information, wrong... whatever. I have noticed, over the course of the past two months.

1. Food inflation in China is being reported higher then 10% per month.
2. Locusts are affecting large swaths of agriculture this year.
3. East Asia (Including China) is reporting another swine flu outbreak.
4. China has reported an outbreak of bird flu in the Hunan province.
5. China has experienced MAJOR flooding in one of it's main rice growing areas. (Thousands of square kilometers reporting crop damage.)
6. Much of China's strategic corn reserve has been destroyed by mold.

Much of this information does not come from official Chinese sources, of course it is my opinion that the CCP's first instinct is to lie. So it is hard to tell what is actually going on.

If some of this is true I would expect to see upside pressure on grain and pork futures. Has anyone (Sig) seen evidence of this? Although to tell the truth, it sort of feels to me that the Chinese govt has... Lost the plot? Not sure how to describe it. All of this is happening concurrently with the Wuhan Flu, and the Chinese real estate bubble. I suspect that it is going to get messy over there.

Edit: I tried to find the article about moldy strategic corn reserve. I could not find it which is... interesting. I did not look very hard because I found this...


China largest ever...

[dontgetoutmuch]

After poking around, it looks like there is enough surplus grain to get the world through 2020, even if I had no idea that the comodity glut we have is so huge, and that global demand has fallen off due to the Chinese Lung Rot.

On the other hand, it still would suck to live in China right now.

[sigurdur]

Jul 17, 2020 17:27:58 GMT dontgetoutmuch said:

After poking around, it looks like there is enough surplus grain to get the world through 2020, even if I had no idea that the comodity glut we have is so huge, and that global demand has fallen off due to the Chinese Lung Rot.

On the other hand, it still would suck to live in China right now.

There is enough surplus grain to get the world through 2022 and beyond. The additional CO2 is really starting to bump up yields, even with inclement weather.

China corn mold. China is purchasing a lot of corn all of a sudden. Ag has known about the corn mold for some time. The US has such a damn glut of corn that it is at firesale prices. China will blend the moldy corn with good US corn.

Their wheat has the same problem.

In the US, farmers have invested a tremendous amount of money on air systems to facilitate long term storage of grains. The US continues to be the "worlds grainery".

[nautonnier]