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Post by nautonnier on May 17, 2020 19:07:52 GMT
MB that Spanish study is the usual negative spin, however the good news is that the Spanish population has about 5% antibody rate and much higher in the risky cities. that is 10X the infection level recorded on worldometer. In the mix of the hysteria is that good news and as they move into summer the level will rise through the less vulnerable young. Critically the strain will also weaken and there you have it. Mean while in the Australasian region we enter winter in a month. Vitamin D3 is falling and the appetite for the lockdown is gone as have the financial reserves. Oh yes and zero immunity thus far. Vitamin D3, Vitamin K, zinc and a brazil nut a day for selenium -- that's you set
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Post by missouriboy on May 17, 2020 21:47:37 GMT
In climate models, pensions should be based on how close to accurate you were. That might solve a number of problems ... This sounds like a great idea. But when you can adjust the actual numbers to what you want, there may be a problem. Did I mention requiring all temps to be satellite based? Dr Roy in the Pilot's seat?
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Post by nautonnier on May 17, 2020 23:34:19 GMT
"Coronavirus may ‘burn out naturally’ before any vaccine is developed, former WHO chief claims
Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘likely’ to have contracted virus
Coronavirus could “burn out naturally before any vaccine is developed”, according to a former World Health Organisation chief.
“We are seeing a roughly similar pattern everywhere – I suspect we have more immunity than estimated,” Professor Karol Sikora, who previously directed the WHO’s cancer programme, said on Saturday.
“We need to keep slowing the virus, but it could be petering out by itself. It is my opinion that this is a feasible scenario.”
His hopeful comments come days after a new study in the International Journal of Clinical Practice, using local authority “R” transmission rate data, estimated some 19 million people are “likely” to have already contracted the virus in the UK.
Epidemiologists’ efforts to surmise and monitor the true spread of the virus have been hindered by the government’s decision to abandon widespread testing and contact-tracing in mid-March."www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-immunity-uk-who-karol-sikora-oxford-trials-transmission-a9518986.html
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Post by acidohm on May 18, 2020 0:23:10 GMT
Contact tracing became pointless as above a certain threshold, you can't feasibly produce the resources to do this effectively. The virus spreads exponentially, so would your contact tracing. This is why the UK gvmt have expressed contact tracing will be re-instated once cases drop below a certain point Testing has been and is, the Achilles heel through all of this. However again, its down to resources, there were none, and weren't untill 100,000 tests/day a couple of weeks ago, which is still lacking. Testing was never a tap with infinite opening capacity from 1st case, it was an entirely undeveloped infrastructure/resource system which couldnt cope. (Germany coped extremely well with this and can been seen in their stats) No-one planned for this. (Its just the germans are so efficient!)
Ive often stated cases are more prolific then we can prove. Sadly, we still can't. I wish they'd hurry up to quantify either way.
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Post by blustnmtn on May 18, 2020 1:21:59 GMT
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Post by Ratty on May 18, 2020 1:50:20 GMT
The words 'cat' and 'pigeons' and 'amongst' come to mind ....
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Post by nautonnier on May 18, 2020 2:15:44 GMT
This is 'gain of function' research. Instead of engineering a mutation to make the virus more contagious and damaging to humans it is instead given an accelerated 'evolution' This research was what was being done at University of North Carolina Chapel Hill based on an initial virus culture from Fort Detrick MD. The research at Chapel Hill was shut down with a WTF do you think you are doing?? The research was subsequently continued by Fauci's team funding that research in Wuhan - they must have been desperate to evolve a version of the Corona Virus that would preferentially infect humans - WTF for? www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/27/anthony-fauci-should-explain-37-million-wuhan-labo/Fauci meanwhile has an agreement with Bill Gates on development of a Corona Virus vaccine AND forecast 3 years ago that Trump would have to deal with a surprise disease during his presidency. At the early briefings it was notable that Fauci found it difficult to keep a straight face. Moreover, Fauci has continually repeated that nothing can get back to normal until there is a vaccine. Bill Gates the same and Gates has also been upsetting Germany with the same theme. I don't think that this was engineered as a bio weapon it is too uncontrolled and too infectious of the originators as well as the targets; but it is being used as one.
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Post by missouriboy on May 18, 2020 2:44:33 GMT
The words 'cat' and 'pigeons' and 'amongst' come to mind .... The words "act of war" also come to mind. Regardless of source, internal transport shutdown, while allowing outbound transport to continue had to be intensional.
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Post by sigurdur on May 18, 2020 3:23:13 GMT
Over 1k dead in Washington in spite of social distancing and stay at home orders. Not the flu. If New York has anything to teach us it is stay at home is detrimental. 60% of all new cases are from stay at home people.
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Post by slh1234 on May 18, 2020 5:48:04 GMT
If New York has anything to teach us it is stay at home is detrimental. 60% of all new cases are from stay at home people. and of course we b oth know they didn't catch it at home...unless the TV infected them, no, they caught the virus while out and about. The point is: it is impossible to stay at home. You're not staying at home, either, or if you are, you're expecting someone else to not stay at home and bring you supplies like groceries so you can stay at home. Even there, there is contact. Stay at home is an adult game of pretend. Nobody is able to do it, but many are pretending.
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Post by slh1234 on May 18, 2020 5:54:33 GMT
Over 1k dead in Washington in spite of social distancing and stay at home orders. Not the flu. I suggest that those of you who want to stay at home do so quietly and let those of us who are ready to get out do so. I'm really tired of being told to stay home for the benefit of the fearful, or those who think it will benefit their political viewpoint. The statistics are unreliable, but still thrown around for political purposes, and "not the flu" ignores not only statistical impropriety, but also factors like availability of a vaccine, and the fact that it hasn't run its course. It's a meaningless statement. Yes, it's not the flu, but should we be locked down like we have been? I say,"no." You can stay locked down as you please, but don't expect it of me.
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Post by slh1234 on May 18, 2020 5:59:36 GMT
I express skepticism because experts both inside and outside the US have expressed concerns such as counting deaths as coronavirus deaths without establishing causation. It's not about being a vapid soul. It's about wanting accuracy, recognizing the world is not one-dimensional, and having seen everything politicized. Sorry, but I'm not moved by emotional talk. It has its place, but that place is not in evaluating seriousness when interpreting statistics.
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Post by Ratty on May 18, 2020 6:25:52 GMT
I think I've found a guy who qualifies as a boffin:
Edward Ted J. "Ted" Steele is an Australian molecular immunologist with interests in virology and evolution. He is an honorary research associate at the C.Y.O'Connor ERADE Village Foundation in Piara Waters, WA, Australia.
He joins Economist John Adams and Analyst Martin North in an extended interview exploring COVID, its possible origins, propagation and risks. How do our current responses stack up?
Some background on Ted Steele:
In January 2001, Steele made several allegations to the media in regard to 'soft' marking resulting in the upgrading of full fee paying international students. Steele was summarily dismissed by UoW's Vice-Chancellor Gerard Sutton, stating that the university's reputation was "placed at a serious and imminent risk as a result of Associate Professor Steele's claims." Steele declared his dismissal unfair and instituted legal proceedings. The case received wide media coverage.[5]
In August 2001, the Australian Federal Court found that the University of Wollongong had breached its staff enterprise agreement by not following correct conduct and dismissal procedures in Steele's case. Following the verdict Steele expressed publicly that he wanted his job back.[6]
On 5 April 2002, UoW Vice Chancellor Gerard Sutton acceded to NTEU demands and reinstated Dr Ted Steele to his position within the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of Wollongong. It was made public that Steele's reinstatement was unconditional and involved backpay. President of the National Tertiary Education Union, Dr Carolyn Allport announced the importance of the victory and precedent that the court's ruling set. "The NTEU has said all along that Dr Steele was dismissed illegally. The union's position has been completely vindicated by the findings of four judges of the Federal Court and Dr Steele's subsequent reinstatement. The reinstatement comes after a 15 month legal and political campaign by the NTEU. It is a victory for all NTEU members because it clearly demonstrates that university staff cannot be dismissed without a proper and fair hearing. This requirement is the fundamental protection of intellectual freedom in Australia's universities and the successful campaign to reinstate Dr Steele has reaffirmed that protection for all Australian university staff and for the community that our universities serve."[7]
The unfair dismissal issue was resolved on 6 July 2002 when Steele and the University of Wollongong came to a confidential agreement.
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Post by nautonnier on May 18, 2020 9:48:33 GMT
We all know that the COVID-19 deaths are inflated. There have been a few cases - I will try to find it where audits have reduced the number of deaths FROM COVID-19 as opposed to someone who was asymptomatic dying WITH COVID-19 of an unrelated cause like cancer. New York was also including cases where the patient was not infected but died such as someone due elective surgery that was denied due to the COVID-19 shut down and died of the condition that required 'elective' surgery - for example requiring a stent not getting one and dying from cardiac arrest - put down as death due to COVID-19. The Hospitals are encouraged to do pump up the figures of COVID-19 deaths as they get all sorts of add on funding from the Feds for supposed added costs of treating COVID-19; such as PPE special rooms and more staff to deal with a COVID-19 case - when it was someone dying at home due to a ruptured appendix or whatever that didn't come straight to hospital due to COVID-19. Medical metrology is a mess. There is no direct comparison between countries as the WHO failed to issue guidelines on what the metrics should be. So the president who knows this, which everyone in health care knows, and it is published on the internet. Yet when he says the figures are not reliable, the president is wrong and anti-medicine? To me this yet again shows the way the media will twist anything said and the gullibles believe what they are told and add it to the Trump is an idiot file, when what he said was completely correct but deliberately misconstrued and restated incorrectly by a reporter who is looking for ways to discredit the president. Note often these reporters were the ones who spent every day for 3 years talking of 'the walls closing in on the president' and 'evidence in plain sight' of Russian collusion then of Ukrainian 'quid pro quo' - and go seamlessly into gotcha questions and misstatement of answers and statements about the pandemic. We have not seen anything yet either - the malfeasance of the media will rise to a crescendo as we approach the election. Wait till google/youtube/facebook really get going.
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Post by nautonnier on May 18, 2020 9:55:28 GMT
and of course we b oth know they didn't catch it at home...unless the TV infected them, no, they caught the virus while out and about. The point is: it is impossible to stay at home. You're not staying at home, either, or if you are, you're expecting someone else to not stay at home and bring you supplies like groceries so you can stay at home. Even there, there is contact. Stay at home is an adult game of pretend. Nobody is able to do it, but many are pretending. And in New York City home is not a ranch style home on 1/4 acre with a picket fence; it is 400sqft apartment with windows that barely open with shared air conditioning and a small shared elevator. Possibly the worst place to make people stay as it also out of the sun - so lowering what little vitamin D they do get. So the small family sends one person out to get food that one gets infected in the elevator and brings it back to the home. Had they been told to supplement their diet perhaps they may not have got sick. Note that it was still less than 5% of NYC population that got sick and that was pumped up several thousand by Cuomo sending infected patients into nursing homes.
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