|
Post by sigurdur on May 23, 2020 18:02:33 GMT
Gov Bergum obviously doesn't know the science in that a face mask against a virus is about worthless. Bacteria......pretty durn good!
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on May 23, 2020 19:06:27 GMT
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on May 23, 2020 19:21:59 GMT
I may be repeating myself here, but just ignore it if you've seen it before. Previously, I explained why Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) may not be useful in the later stages of COVID-19 infection. The antibodies likely have already rid the body of the active virus cells. But the damage which has already occurred can lead to death. The secret is to kill off COVID-19 in the early stages. Antibodies do this most of the time but help is sometime needed. This video may have been posted before but it’s worthwhile watching because it shows the science for how HCQ can help. youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9MAs the video says HCQ should work, but a large-scale test is needed to provide absolute proof. Because the study is very expensive and because it requires willing participants (who wants a placebo instead of the likely cure?)and because the study will take a long time (will the results be available before a vaccine?) , and because there is no drug company that will benefit significantly from a positive outcome, and because there are political aspects to HCQ, the big test that all the experts say is needed, particularly of HCQ given early, isn’t happening. Should HCQ be used as a treatment for C-19 in the meantime? Most doctors appear to say yes. The doctors seek support from the governmental agencies for prescribing HCQ, but the agencies only want to approve it when the patient is very sick (hospitalized), at a time when it will likely not work. If there was someone other than Fauci and his ilk in charge of the large governmental agencies, I think nearly all US doctors would be prescribing HCQ (and Zinc) as a prophylactic for the vulnerable (those who are old and those with certain pre-existing conditions) after contact with someone who has C-19 and for those with early stage C-19 infection. Many doctors are already prescribing it.
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on May 23, 2020 19:23:51 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on May 23, 2020 21:45:59 GMT
McKintire 2015. The study found cotton masks to be 3% effective against a virus. N95 were 44% effective.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on May 24, 2020 0:52:30 GMT
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on May 24, 2020 1:03:50 GMT
This is my mask. cambridgemask.com/ It cost 22 British pounds, is washable and has a life expectancy of 350 hours under light pollution scenarios. The filtration system incorporates particulate filtering layers and military grade carbon. Cambridge Masks meets the N99 standard of particulate filtration, providing nearly 100% protection from particulate pollution such as PM2.5 and PM0.3. They claim the finest layer filters out viruses. By the time I ordered mine (end Feb.), they had a backlog delivery date of 2 months. Got it the end of April. I ordered in wave 5. They are now selling Wave 15. Fits like a glove. If it made coffee and did dishes, I'd order more.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on May 24, 2020 1:54:04 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on May 24, 2020 1:54:52 GMT
"Coronavirus pandemic could be over in the UK by September 30: Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave
Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the Covid-19 pandemic United States will extinguish the infection by November 11, the team discovered The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time Also tracks actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given as of May 12
Professor Adrian Hill told The Sunday Telegraph the rapid disappearance of the virus itself in the UK has thrown doubt on the team's ability to meet the deadline in four months' time."www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351237/Coronavirus-completely-wiped-Britain-September-30.htmlA level of agreement here models all the way down .... but I still say July.
|
|
|
Post by slh1234 on May 24, 2020 5:36:08 GMT
"Coronavirus pandemic could be over in the UK by September 30: Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave
Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the Covid-19 pandemic United States will extinguish the infection by November 11, the team discovered The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time Also tracks actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given as of May 12
Professor Adrian Hill told The Sunday Telegraph the rapid disappearance of the virus itself in the UK has thrown doubt on the team's ability to meet the deadline in four months' time."www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351237/Coronavirus-completely-wiped-Britain-September-30.htmlA level of agreement here models all the way down .... but I still say July. Interesting for me: I'm going to teach a 4 day class this next week on Machine Learning. I repeat: you cannot develop a skilled predictive model without good historical data. You have no historical data the first time something occurs.this is, at best, a hypothesis. We should not be taking life-altering courses based on a hypothesis. My personal opinion: much like the flu, we will never again know a world without coronavirus and its associated risk. Still, I want to LIVE however much life I have remaining. Good night all.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on May 24, 2020 8:49:41 GMT
"Coronavirus pandemic could be over in the UK by September 30: Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave
Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the Covid-19 pandemic United States will extinguish the infection by November 11, the team discovered The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time Also tracks actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given as of May 12
Professor Adrian Hill told The Sunday Telegraph the rapid disappearance of the virus itself in the UK has thrown doubt on the team's ability to meet the deadline in four months' time."www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351237/Coronavirus-completely-wiped-Britain-September-30.htmlA level of agreement here models all the way down .... but I still say July. Interesting for me: I'm going to teach a 4 day class this next week on Machine Learning. I repeat: you cannot develop a skilled predictive model without good historical data. You have no historical data the first time something occurs.this is, at best, a hypothesis. We should not be taking life-altering courses based on a hypothesis. My personal opinion: much like the flu, we will never again know a world without coronavirus and its associated risk. Still, I want to LIVE however much life I have remaining. Good night all. Well I agree that we will never know a world without Corona Viruses there are lots of them 30% of colds are caused by corona viruses. However, there was a precedent for just stopping: SARS-CoV-1 that caused SARS. SARS-CoV-1 was slightly less infectious, as viral shedding did not occur until the patient was actually sick; but its CFR was very high. SARS-CoV-1 just stopped. MERS (middle east respiratory syndrome) another variant of the SARS corona virus strain also just stopped.
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on May 24, 2020 9:18:21 GMT
In places where Sars 1 has effects, there's been a lasting change to human behaviour with regards to awareness of living with a virus.
These same areas have aurguably coped better then say, Europe or the US during this virus.
Did SARS 1 just stop, or did human behaviour reduce R low enough to prevent growth of spread.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on May 24, 2020 12:04:34 GMT
In places where Sars 1 has effects, there's been a lasting change to human behaviour with regards to awareness of living with a virus. These same areas have aurguably coped better then say, Europe or the US during this virus. Did SARS 1 just stop, or did human behaviour reduce R low enough to prevent growth of spread. Well one thing is certain there is no 'social distancing' but there are some that you see traveling that wear face masks ALL the time. However, it just stopped everywhere and all attempts to create a corona virus vaccine were abandoned.
|
|
|
Post by slh1234 on May 24, 2020 15:40:25 GMT
Interesting for me: I'm going to teach a 4 day class this next week on Machine Learning. I repeat: you cannot develop a skilled predictive model without good historical data. You have no historical data the first time something occurs.this is, at best, a hypothesis. We should not be taking life-altering courses based on a hypothesis. My personal opinion: much like the flu, we will never again know a world without coronavirus and its associated risk. Still, I want to LIVE however much life I have remaining. Good night all. Well I agree that we will never know a world without Corona Viruses there are lots of them 30% of colds are caused by corona viruses. However, there was a precedent for just stopping: SARS-CoV-1 that caused SARS. SARS-CoV-1 was slightly less infectious, as viral shedding did not occur until the patient was actually sick; but its CFR was very high. SARS-CoV-1 just stopped. MERS (middle east respiratory syndrome) another variant of the SARS corona virus strain also just stopped. One might call that "running its course." However, can it be assumed this variant will behave the same way? If it is assumed, then that becomes a part of the hypothesis that must be tested, as does the method of expressing that mathematically. We only get one experiment with something like this, and so when the models finally get it right for the right reason, it's too late to be of any use. FWIW, though, there are still cases of MERS and SARS in the world, so the virus is still out there. The number of cases is small, though (and not politically useful), so it would seem COVID-19 could follow the same path. That wouldn't mean it's gone nor stopped in my mind - just that we have reached a point where it is difficult to find people to affect (symbolic terminology - not intending to imply and cognitive abilities in a virus).
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on May 24, 2020 16:28:56 GMT
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577?fbclid=IwAR2uwMqBISdfnudIP4yv3Fx-q2ygp2oPjslGMvqJml8UeRUVDtdgGDmT9T0Results The rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm, with the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm (relative risk (RR)=13.00, 95% CI 1.69 to 100.07) compared with the medical mask arm. Cloth masks also had significantly higher rates of ILI compared with the control arm. An analysis by mask use showed ILI (RR=6.64, 95% CI 1.45 to 28.65) and laboratory-confirmed virus (RR=1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.94) were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.
|
|