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Post by nautonnier on Jun 28, 2020 12:53:08 GMT
All the above is fine while infection rates are low/people behave in a manner which keeps them low. If allowed to spread uninhibited, small percentages still equal large numbers which as we have seen, can build very quickly. That is based on the assumption that everyone can be infected. It is apparent from all the hot spots that at least 80% and possibly up to 95% of people have innate immunity that protects them against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The numbers infected are still showing that the numbers susceptible are within that ratio. All epidemiology does is assume that everyone can be infected and the infectivity (R0) is based on that. If 5% of the population can easily be infected the same patterns of infection will happen initially and after a quarantine/lockdown - but then a rapid decline takes place as the numbers of uninfected susceptibles reduces. The basic epidemiological models like climate models leave out a lot of 'difficult' detail. Climate models guess/parameterize clouds as it is easier, epidemiological models assume identical genotypes as it is easier.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 28, 2020 13:29:16 GMT
All the above is fine while infection rates are low/people behave in a manner which keeps them low. If allowed to spread uninhibited, small percentages still equal large numbers which as we have seen, can build very quickly. That is based on the assumption that everyone can be infected. It is apparent from all the hot spots that at least 80% and possibly up to 95% of people have innate immunity that protects them against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The numbers infected are still showing that the numbers susceptible are within that ratio. All epidemiology does is assume that everyone can be infected and the infectivity (R0) is based on that. If 5% of the population can easily be infected the same patterns of infection will happen initially and after a quarantine/lockdown - but then a rapid decline takes place as the numbers of uninfected susceptibles reduces. The basic epidemiological models like climate models leave out a lot of 'difficult' detail. Climate models guess/parameterize clouds as it is easier, epidemiological models assume identical genotypes as it is easier. Indeed, there is something we're missing with this disease...there is an annoying hole in our understanding of it which leads to inexplicable behaviour by it. Im not sure any authority at this point however could base decisions on only 5% of the pop being susceptible however at this moment in time. Id really be very very happy to be wrong, but models to one side, a virus spreading exponentially, unhindered through a population has been demonstrated in history with known consequences. The numbers get big, and as they get big they get much bigger, quickly. There has, as far as i know, been no evidence to clarify genetic disposition etc. The introduction of social distancing measures have so far matched a decline in R, coincidence or not? That is pretty much all we can definitively say atm.
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Post by gridley on Jun 28, 2020 13:33:33 GMT
All the above is fine while infection rates are low/people behave in a manner which keeps them low. If allowed to spread uninhibited, small percentages still equal large numbers which as we have seen, can build very quickly. What actions are people taking to keep infections low? Ordering take out food that is delivered to multiple houses by the same person? Wearing masks over their mouth but not their nose in grocery stores? Panic-buying toilet paper and flour? Re-using disposable masks, often by reversing them? Rioting? I looked up stats on the flu back when all this started (CDC data, though filtered through my memory). Only about 40% of adults in the US get a flu shot every year, and the shot is, on average, less than 50% effective. So 20% of the population is "safe". From an epidemiology perspective, that does almost nothing for spread prevention. Now, how effective are cloth masks? Ideal studies seem to be coming in around 30%, and I've yet to be out in public without seeing masks worn improperly (let's not get started on cleaning them). So, masks might, perhaps, provide 20% protection in the real world... hey, didn't we see that number a minute ago? OK, bit of apples to oranges, but I hope you see my point. And can we, at least on this board, PLEASE stop talking about the number of reported cases as if it was a good indicator of the actual infection rate in the population? Unless this virus - including all of its substrains - has magically mutated to be less lethal *everywhere* *all at once* the fatality rate we're seeing now is the WORST CASE version of WHAT IT HAS BEEN ALL ALONG. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if you test ten times as many people as get five times as many positive results it indicates that the pandemic is DYING OUT. Even here we keep talking as if that means five times as many people are sick.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 28, 2020 14:46:44 GMT
Apologies Gridley, i in no way aim to post anything which stresses anyone out, at the same time realise much about this subject is stressful, especially those involving our way of life.
I'll leave it here, only adding i see extensive, well practised distancing procedures here in Middle England. Done with consideration to others. There's always a few bad apples, true.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 28, 2020 15:39:44 GMT
Apologies Gridley, i in no way aim to post anything which stresses anyone out, at the same time realise much about this subject is stressful, especially those involving our way of life. I'll leave it here, only adding i see extensive, well practised distancing procedures here in Middle England. Done with consideration to others. There's always a few bad apples, true. There is never a reason to apologize on this board. People sharing information is DESIRABLE.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 28, 2020 16:21:37 GMT
Apologies Gridley, i in no way aim to post anything which stresses anyone out, at the same time realise much about this subject is stressful, especially those involving our way of life. I'll leave it here, only adding i see extensive, well practised distancing procedures here in Middle England. Done with consideration to others. There's always a few bad apples, true. There is never a reason to apologize on this board. People sharing information is DESIRABLE. Thx Sig, this is always the most civil of places (apart from 2 periods in 5 years involving specific posters 😳 😬)
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 28, 2020 16:55:39 GMT
There is never a reason to apologize on this board. People sharing information is DESIRABLE. Thx Sig, this is always the most civil of places (apart from 2 periods in 5 years involving specific posters 😳 😬) We have taken the "war" out of civil. Wish some other sites would do the same.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 28, 2020 17:36:38 GMT
There is never a reason to apologize on this board. People sharing information is DESIRABLE. Thx Sig, this is always the most civil of places (apart from 2 periods in 5 years involving specific posters 😳 😬) The reason it is civil is people who post on this forum think. That has become a rare thing anymore. Knee jerk reactions with loud proclamations are the new "normal" in society. Today's talking point seems to be that "Russia has a bounty on US solders.". Ok, I am a seasoned feller. Does this surprise ANYONE who thinks? Want to go through the list of people the US has a bounty on? ?? Doesn't make it right, what it does make is the PRESENT, and PAST reality of life.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 28, 2020 19:11:06 GMT
Thx Sig, this is always the most civil of places (apart from 2 periods in 5 years involving specific posters 😳 😬) The reason it is civil is people who post on this forum think. That has become a rare thing anymore. Knee jerk reactions with loud proclamations are the new "normal" in society. Today's talking point seems to be that "Russia has a bounty on US solders.". Ok, I am a seasoned feller. Does this surprise ANYONE who thinks? Want to go through the list of people the US has a bounty on? ?? Doesn't make it right, what it does make is the PRESENT, and PAST reality of life. Scott Adams calls it choosing the film to watch. Some people go through life permanently blue pilled watching a nice cuddly movie and get really really upset if the red pill version breaks through into their anodyne existence. One of the problems about getting back with civilian life is that military have to watch the rather more threatening red pill movie and their actions and speech tend to get blunt with it. You can feel like you are on eggshells when you realize that the blue pill film doesn't even include basic information that drives the way the world works, as you know if you point out the red pill sub-plot everyone may get upset.
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Post by gridley on Jun 29, 2020 17:11:17 GMT
Apologies Gridley, i in no way aim to post anything which stresses anyone out, at the same time realise much about this subject is stressful, especially those involving our way of life. I'll leave it here, only adding i see extensive, well practised distancing procedures here in Middle England. Done with consideration to others. There's always a few bad apples, true. No apology required acidohm, sorry that I over-reacted. I get really sick and tired of the brainless virtue signaling I see in the world (not, I wish to emphasize, on this board), and sometimes I let it leak over here. (edit to correct my statement)
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 29, 2020 17:37:33 GMT
Apologies Gridley, i in no way aim to post anything which stresses anyone out, at the same time realise much about this subject is stressful, especially those involving our way of life. I'll leave it here, only adding i see extensive, well practised distancing procedures here in Middle England. Done with consideration to others. There's always a few bad apples, true. No apology required acidohm, sorry if I over-reacted. I get really sick and tired of the brainless virtue signaling I see in the world (not, I wish to emphasize, on this board), and sometimes I let it leak over here. Perhaps it would be different IF they had some virtue to signal. Perhaps my sensors are faulty ... and my virtue alarm has cross-circuited with my Narcissistic Bullshit alarm. That would explain that smell.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 29, 2020 19:05:33 GMT
Apologies Gridley, i in no way aim to post anything which stresses anyone out, at the same time realise much about this subject is stressful, especially those involving our way of life. I'll leave it here, only adding i see extensive, well practised distancing procedures here in Middle England. Done with consideration to others. There's always a few bad apples, true. No apology required acidohm, sorry that I over-reacted. I get really sick and tired of the brainless virtue signaling I see in the world (not, I wish to emphasize, on this board), and sometimes I let it leak over here. (edit to correct my statement) We live in unsettled, turbulent and polarised times. Its becoming increasingly hard to determine the thread of truth amongst the chaos and to top it off much of current events are weighing on us at an emotional level, one way or another. Unfortunately too, none of us are in control of anything that is happening, all we can do is watch, it is frustrating.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 29, 2020 20:26:17 GMT
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Post by walnut on Jun 29, 2020 20:53:03 GMT
There seems to be a positive relationship between wearing masks and deaths per 100k pop.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 29, 2020 22:04:44 GMT
Practically no one wore masks in UK, increasing recently.
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