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Post by nautonnier on Jan 14, 2021 18:06:20 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 15, 2021 11:18:07 GMT
COVID Crisis == Curfew Is there any previous similar way to keep people off the streets that did not make people question the government
The interesting part of this is that it is in southern Florida - perhaps someone has planned an assault on De Santis for being so much better than New York
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Post by duwayne on Jan 15, 2021 17:16:01 GMT
For whatever reason, the media is not showing any predictions of future COVID infections and deaths.
The 7-day average of new COVID cases on January 11 was 255,000. That was undoubtedly a result of partying and a “catch-up” on previous cases. It will be the peak.
My model says COVID should pretty much be gone by the end of May, just 20 weeks from now. There will be more than a 98% reduction from the January 11 figure. The number of deaths will drop accordingly a couple of weeks behind.
Shouldn’t that be newsworthy? Or am I way off? Or are the “experts” clueless? Or is the media hiding good news until after Biden is in position to take credit for what Trump did to help vaccines arrive in unprecedented record time?
This prediction is consistent with my last update 10 days ago and is close to my original projection from nearly a month ago which I modified slightly 2 weeks later because of the slower than expected rate of vaccinations.
My biggest concern is that as the pandemic eases, the “infectable” people will become careless causing an increased transfer even though both the number of infectors (those with COVID) and the number who can catch COVID (not immune due to vaccine or having had COVID) are dropping.
A second concern is that I am counting on the vaccines to be effective almost immediately - even before the second dose is administered. A slower immunity will extend the end date somewhat.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2021 17:26:33 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jan 15, 2021 19:41:57 GMT
The COVID model I created is on an EXCEL spreadsheet and it is easy to change inputs to see the effect on future COVID cases and deaths.
Some have proposed that little or no effort be made to limit the spread of COVID since a faster spread will speed up “herd immunity”.
I looked at what would happen if the rate of spread of COVID was doubled.
Within 3 months there would be 5 million new cases per day of COVID and shortly thereafter there would be 60,000 deaths per day. Compound growth at high rates gives big numbers.
On the plus side, this doesn’t last long. By the end of March the epidemic would be over.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 15, 2021 19:54:59 GMT
The COVID model I created is on an EXCEL spreadsheet and it is easy to change inputs to see the effect on future COVID cases and deaths. Some have proposed that little or no effort be made to limit the spread of COVID since a faster spread will speed up “herd immunity”. I looked at what would happen if the rate of spread of COVID was doubled. Within a month there would be 5 million new cases per day of COVID and shortly thereafter there would be 60,000 deaths per day. Compound growth at high rates gives big numbers. On the plus side, this doesn’t last long. By the end of March the epidemic would be over. The problem is that the input statistics are so flaky. UK has just upped the time between a positive test (which is often false) and death which would be said to be a COVID death. The window used to be 25 days - has now been raised to 60 days. This has an immediate effect of bumping the statistics up but without any COVID input. The PCR test is very shaky. The research paper on which the test design was based has had to be withdrawn.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 15, 2021 21:03:19 GMT
"COVID Lockdowns May Have No Clear Benefit vs Other Voluntary Measures, International Study Shows
A study evaluating COVID-19 responses around the world found that mandatory lockdown orders early in the pandemic may not provide significantly more benefits to slowing the spread of the disease than other voluntary measures, such as social distancing or travel reduction.
The peer reviewed study was published in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation on January 5, and analyzed coronavirus case growth in 10 countries in early 2020.
The study compared cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the U.S. – all countries that implemented mandatory lockdown orders and business closures – to South Korea and Sweden, which instituted less severe, voluntary responses. It aimed to analyze the effect that less restrictive or more restrictive measures had on changing individual behavior and curbing the transmission of the virus."More here: www.newsweek.com/covid-lockdowns-have-no-clear-benefit-vs-other-voluntary-measures-international-study-shows-1561656
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 16, 2021 19:37:14 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 16, 2021 20:54:51 GMT
Here is what New York, New Jersey and California should do - if they had the cojones ...
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 16, 2021 22:13:55 GMT
Viva l'Italia ... resistere! Ya can't arrest everybody.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 16, 2021 23:30:07 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 17, 2021 17:38:10 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2021 17:50:44 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 17, 2021 20:27:04 GMT
This fits with what I have been told elsewhere
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Post by duwayne on Jan 18, 2021 5:10:00 GMT
"Flu season usually peaks between December and February. Influenza typically causes about 45 million illnesses, 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths in the United States each year, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But so far this flu season (1/16/2021), there have been just 925 reported cases of the flu nationwide." link
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