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Post by duwayne on Jan 21, 2021 3:32:49 GMT
For what it's worth, I’ve put together a model to “guess” what will transpire with respect to COVID cases and deaths in the US over the next few months. Caution… this could be way off because everything is an unknown. I haven’t seen any other projections. Never-the-less, here’s what I’m seeing. Mid-JanuaryA total of 25 Million vaccinations. We’ll just be starting to see benefits of the vaccinations in the total numbers. Because of the Christmas and New Years holidays, any benefits will be largely offset. Mid-February60 million vaccinations in total. New cases per day will be cut in half and the deaths per day will also be halved soon after. Mid-March125 million vaccinations New cases per day cut by 85%. Mid-AprilClosing in on 200 million vaccinations. New cases and deaths down by 98%. Based on this scenario, there will still be 100 million vulnerable people at the end of April who have not been vaccinated and have not had COVID. Yet, new COVID cases could be very, very low. You have to understand the importance of Spread Rate or R zero to see why this is the case. The middle of January has passed and it’s time to look at how my “guesses” are working out with respect to vaccinations and COVID cases. There have been 36 million doses of vaccine distributed in the US. The “doses administered” are reported to be 17 million which is significantly below my guess of 25 million. I am disappointed in the progress so far although there is a possibility that vaccination rates are being somewhat under-reported. I foresaw new cases remaining about level through mid-January because the benefit of vaccinations would be offset by Christmas and New Years get-togethers. That’s just what happened. The new cases (7 day averages) were running at 220,000 on December 21 and since then they have averaged 218,000. Here’s where the decline in new cases should begin in earnest. My original prediction was that new cases would fall in half by mid-February to around 110,000 new cases per day. Hopefully, the vaccination rates will pick up a little. I still feel lonely making a forecast (guess) because the media is not reporting any other projections to my knowledge. There's a chance that I’ll be the only one who is wrong.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2021 3:33:19 GMT
www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212746.shtmlCHINA / SOCIETY 19% or 95%? US expert challenges Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy, triggers debates in China By Leng Shumei and Bai Yunyi Published: Jan 13, 2021 10:55 PM An illustration shows vials of a COVID-19 vaccine and syringes with the logos of US pharmaceutical company Pfizer and German partner BioNTech. Photo: AFP Could the Pfizer vaccine's real efficacy be as low as 19 percent, instead of 95 percent as it claims? I wouldn't be surprised if Pfizer vaccine efficacy is somewhat below what they are claiming. They have been less than open with their data. Moderna has provided much more information. Fortunately, even a 50% efficacy is good because it will reduce the severity of COVID even when an infection does occur. I'm by no means an expert, but I've chosen to receive a Moderna vaccination on Saturday. Every once in a very long while it pays to be old. I am going to wait for Johnson and Johnson vaccine.
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 21, 2021 4:03:01 GMT
Brave you are. But I agree its looking like some progress made.
The number of immune people in the US due to C19 past infection must be 50M so the R0 must be falling not withstanding the new strain. The advantage of the C19 route to immunity is that these people are all also the ones who would get it, that is not the case with the vaccine.
Again a guess but from the data on the Cruise ships less than 50% are even vulnerable so those vaccinated may have less than 50% the impact.
The numbers will fall fast sooner than you suggest I think.
There you go we agree mostly.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2021 4:35:05 GMT
Brave you are. But I agree its looking like some progress made. The number of immune people in the US due to C19 past infection must be 50M so the R0 must be falling not withstanding the new strain. The advantage of the C19 route to immunity is that these people are all also the ones who would get it, that is not the case with the vaccine. Again a guess but from the data on the Cruise ships less than 50% are even vulnerable so those vaccinated may have less than 50% the impact. The numbers will fall fast sooner than you suggest I think. There you go we agree mostly. There is no question that a certain segment of the population is immune to Covid19. I have been exposed numerous times, haven't contracted it yet. I feel no burning need to get vaccinated.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 21, 2021 5:10:39 GMT
www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212746.shtmlCHINA / SOCIETY 19% or 95%? US expert challenges Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy, triggers debates in China By Leng Shumei and Bai Yunyi Published: Jan 13, 2021 10:55 PM An illustration shows vials of a COVID-19 vaccine and syringes with the logos of US pharmaceutical company Pfizer and German partner BioNTech. Photo: AFP Could the Pfizer vaccine's real efficacy be as low as 19 percent, instead of 95 percent as it claims? I wouldn't be surprised if Pfizer vaccine efficacy is somewhat below what they are claiming. They have been less than open with their data. Moderna has provided much more information. Fortunately, even a 50% efficacy is good because it will reduce the severity of COVID even when an infection does occur. I'm by no means an expert, but I've chosen to receive a Moderna vaccination on Saturday. Every once in a very long while it pays to be old. You've obviously weighed up Norway's experience (with Pfizer) then, Duwayne?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2021 5:32:51 GMT
Brave you are. But I agree its looking like some progress made. The number of immune people in the US due to C19 past infection must be 50M so the R0 must be falling not withstanding the new strain. The advantage of the C19 route to immunity is that these people are all also the ones who would get it, that is not the case with the vaccine. Again a guess but from the data on the Cruise ships less than 50% are even vulnerable so those vaccinated may have less than 50% the impact. The numbers will fall fast sooner than you suggest I think. There you go we agree mostly. There is no question that a certain segment of the population is immune to Covid19. I have been exposed numerous times, haven't contracted it yet. I feel no burning need to get vaccinated. Ditto to that here. Their test said I was positive in September with no symptoms. I would chaulk that up to a bad read, but Marta also tested positive and HAD symptoms. Nobody wants to give me an antibody test. And with all the unknowns on the various vaccines, I have no driving desire (and likely no need) to be a test pilot. My own immune system has always done well by me. I think I'll keep it in its natural state. I have taken many vaccines that have been around for a long while and have had no problems, but I'll pass on this one.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2021 13:38:45 GMT
Now there is interesting
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2021 14:00:34 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2021 14:31:41 GMT
After watching the Dr Simone Gold Video, the question for 'informed consent' to ask anyone wanting to vaccinate you (if you are still in the age group that cares) is "How will this mRNA vaccine affect my fertility?" Simone Gold says that there is a high chance that women will become infertile (she did not talk about affect on testes/ovaries). {TIN FOIL HAT} The believers in the Malthusian New World Order would see this as a required feature of the vaccine, and one that has been reported as a 'side effect' of many of the vaccine trials run by William Gates esq. {/TIN FOIL HAT}
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2021 15:14:38 GMT
The Covid Monster is designed along the same lines as the CO2 Monster. And to the same ends, whether you believe in the arch villain of the New World Order ... the resurrection of the Communist Party ... or just another group of greedy, power hungary bastards ... whether they be true believers or just plain old fashioned crooks. Never let a crisis go to waste, yes? So dress it up as the next version of the Black Death and run with it. The formerly passive soap opera crowd of earlier post WWII days has morphed into the activist Cancel Culture of today's Fourth Turning generation. They have a cause to follow in standard unthinking fashion. The crooks intend to get rich, and the true believers intend to achieve nirvana.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 21, 2021 16:47:52 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if Pfizer vaccine efficacy is somewhat below what they are claiming. They have been less than open with their data. Moderna has provided much more information. Fortunately, even a 50% efficacy is good because it will reduce the severity of COVID even when an infection does occur. I'm by no means an expert, but I've chosen to receive a Moderna vaccination on Saturday. Every once in a very long while it pays to be old. You've obviously weighed up Norway's experience (with Pfizer) then, Duwayne? Ratty, can you be more specific? I'm aware that 40 elderly people in Norway, mostly very frail, died after taking the vaccine. 40,000 old people were given the vaccine as I recall.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 21, 2021 16:50:10 GMT
After watching the Dr Simone Gold Video, the question for 'informed consent' to ask anyone wanting to vaccinate you (if you are still in the age group that cares) is "How will this mRNA vaccine affect my fertility?" Simone Gold says that there is a high chance that women will become infertile (she did not talk about affect on testes/ovaries). {TIN FOIL HAT} The believers in the Malthusian New World Order would see this as a required feature of the vaccine, and one that has been reported as a 'side effect' of many of the vaccine trials run by William Gates esq. {/TIN FOIL HAT} Nautonnier, did Simone Gold really say there is a high chance that women will become infertile?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2021 17:10:01 GMT
After watching the Dr Simone Gold Video, the question for 'informed consent' to ask anyone wanting to vaccinate you (if you are still in the age group that cares) is "How will this mRNA vaccine affect my fertility?" Simone Gold says that there is a high chance that women will become infertile (she did not talk about affect on testes/ovaries). {TIN FOIL HAT} The believers in the Malthusian New World Order would see this as a required feature of the vaccine, and one that has been reported as a 'side effect' of many of the vaccine trials run by William Gates esq. {/TIN FOIL HAT} Nautonnier, did Simone Gold really say there is a high chance that women will become infertile? I don't know if she said that, but it has been a potential problem with attempted mRNA vaccines in the past. It showed up at approx 18 months after the vaccine was administered.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2021 17:17:39 GMT
After watching the Dr Simone Gold Video, the question for 'informed consent' to ask anyone wanting to vaccinate you (if you are still in the age group that cares) is "How will this mRNA vaccine affect my fertility?" Simone Gold says that there is a high chance that women will become infertile (she did not talk about affect on testes/ovaries). {TIN FOIL HAT} The believers in the Malthusian New World Order would see this as a required feature of the vaccine, and one that has been reported as a 'side effect' of many of the vaccine trials run by William Gates esq. {/TIN FOIL HAT} Nautonnier, did Simone Gold really say there is a high chance that women will become infertile? She did - something to do with the way the placenta is generated and the mRNA doesn't clear that part of the body. It is in the video.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 21, 2021 19:13:26 GMT
Nautonnier, did Simone Gold really say there is a high chance that women will become infertile? She did - something to do with the way the placenta is generated and the mRNA doesn't clear that part of the body. It is in the video. I watched the video. I see nothing to support the "high chance that women will become infertile" characterization. I would put this into "a few doctors speculate but they don't claim to know" category.
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