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Post by duwayne on May 7, 2021 16:52:43 GMT
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Post by duwayne on May 5, 2021 15:06:58 GMT
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Post by duwayne on May 5, 2021 14:58:05 GMT
That’s an interesting video of the dry-line thunderstorms. On the morning of May 20, 2013 I was flying from Phoenix, AZ to Chicago. Not long after leaving Phoenix I noticed a string of clouds lined up from southwest to northeast. Phoenix was totally clear and the first little circular cloud was just a pinpoint and each successive cloud along the line was slightly larger. There were no other clouds besides the string of clouds in the cloud line. The clouds were considerably below the plane and puffy, like small cumulus clouds, and did not look at all threatening. The line stretched towards the northeast as far as I could see. After an hour or so of flying above the line, the cloud size was getting larger and from my vantage point, they finally blended into a generally cloudy sky. I had no idea what it was at the time other than a very unusual sight. After seeing this video, it was clearly a dry line. Later that day there was a large storm outbreak in Oklahoma including a massive F5 tornado which ravaged the Oklahoma City area (Moore) causing extensive death and destruction.
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Post by duwayne on May 4, 2021 22:21:19 GMT
The pastor asked if anyone in the congregation would like to express praise for an answered prayer. Suzie stood and walked to the lectern. She said, "I have some praise. Two months ago, my husband Frank, had a terrible bicycle accident and his scrotum was completely crushed. The pain was excruciating and the doctors didn't know if they could help him." You could hear a muffled gasp from the men in the congregation as they imagined the pain that poor Frank must have experienced. "Frank was unable to hold me or the children," she went on, "and every move caused him terrible pain." We prayed as the doctors performed a delicate operation, and it turned out they were able to piece together the crushed remnants of Frank's scrotum, and wrap wire around it to hold it in place with metal staples" Again, the men in the congregation cringed and squirmed uncomfortably as they imagined the horrible surgery performed on Frank. "Now," she announced in a quivering voice, "thank the Lord, Frank is out of the hospital and the doctors say that with time, his scrotum should recover completely." All the men sighed with unified relief. The pastor rose and tentatively asked if anyone else had something to say. A man stood up and walked slowly to the podium. He said, "I'm Frank". The entire congregation held its breath. "I just want to tell my wife that the word is sternum.”
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Post by duwayne on Apr 6, 2021 17:35:14 GMT
With March's data in, the average UAH updated anomaly for 2007 through March 2021 is 0.1C. This compares to my prediction for a 2007-2037 average of 0.1C. So far things are on track. We are nearing the half-way point.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 6, 2021 16:13:17 GMT
13 entries. Final Forecast List for 2021 Apr.27 youngjasper Apr.30 phydeaux May 1 birder May 2 flearider May 3 missouriboy May 4 gridley May 5 nautonnier May 6 acidohm May 6 sugurdur May 7 nonentropic May 8 May 9 douglaver May 10 NeilHamp May 11 wheels59 If it's not too late I'll take May 8.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 5, 2021 17:21:09 GMT
Where is Nautonnier? This may have been brought up before, but I didn't see it.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 30, 2021 16:27:32 GMT
COVID cases in the US this week are up by 14%.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 29, 2021 16:20:25 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Mar 28, 2021 22:22:14 GMT
The UK deaths have fallen dramatically since January and this is especially noticeable when compared to the US. At the height of the COVID pandemic in January, the UK had 998 deaths per day. Now the 7-day average is 65.
Meanwhile the US daily deaths have fallen from 3,452 to 998.
The UK was 36% of the US and now it is 7%.
In January, the UK population-adjusted death rate was 170% of the US. Now, on a population-adjusted basis, the UK is running a death rate of just 30% of the US.
Why has the UK done so much better? One reason probably is that the UK has maintained more restrictions on social distancing and masks.
I suspect another reason is because the UK has chosen to give more people one vaccine dose rather than 2 and thereby increase the number of vaccine recipients. This greatly expands the number of vaccinated people albeit at a somewhat reduced level of immunity. Never-the-less the immunity may be sufficient to stave off the really bad outcomes.
I’ve wondered about giving the whole population a half-dose. There is already enough vaccine delivered in the US to do this. Would this supply enough immunity to eliminate nearly all deaths?
Then follow with additional supplemental doses as the vaccine becomes available.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 27, 2021 19:26:52 GMT
We had Christmas cards arrive in late February that had been postmarked in mid-December.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 26, 2021 20:18:48 GMT
Update on vaccine: CDC as of today reports 87 million people have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinationsThe VAERS database as of today shows 804 reported deaths within three days of taking the vaccine. vaers.hhs.gov/data.htmlAt first that looks like about 1:100,000... except remember that study about a decade ago found that *1%* of adverse effects actually got reported to VAERS. digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdfAs we saw before, in that case we're actually looking at 80,000 deaths, or 1:1,000 of the people who get the vaccine. But it gets worse. CDC reports 87 million and change have gotten the vaccine. But only 47 million have gotten both doses. People do have adverse reactions after the second dose, and even in theory you need both doses to be effective. So about 40 million people either have another shot at dying or won't be effectively vaccinated. Remember there's also a time lag problem - if we assume it takes the same amount of time to report a vaccine administration as it does a death, then there's up to a three-day lag when someone who has just been vaccinated and will die is reported only as vaccinated. If anyone has better data I would love to see it - the fact that the 1:1,000 fatality rate seems to be holding is really scaring me. Edit to add: quoting from the Harvard Pilgrim report: "Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health. New surveillance methods for drug and vaccine adverse effects are needed. Barriers to reporting include a lack of clinician awareness, uncertainty about when and what to report, as well as the burdens of reporting: reporting is not part of clinicians’ usual workflow, takes time, and is duplicative. Proactive, spontaneous, automated adverse event reporting imbedded within EHRs and other information systems has the potential to speed the identification of problems with new drugs and more careful quantification of the risks of older drugs. Unfortunately, there was never an opportunity to perform system performance assessments because the necessary CDC contacts were no longer available and the CDC consultants responsible for receiving data were no longer responsive to our multiple requests to proceed with testing and evaluation." (emphasis added) The normal number of deaths per year in the US is about 2.9 million from the population of 330 million. For a population of 40 million,(the number of people who have received 2 doses of vaccine), the expected "normal" deaths would be about 1,000 per day. Over a 3 day period that would be 3,000. Since this is a much older than average population, probably something more like 5,000 for a 3 day period would be expected without any vaccination problems. Are you aware of any deaths that have been attributed to the vaccines?
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Post by duwayne on Mar 25, 2021 21:31:02 GMT
The new cases of COVID are now rising swiftly and because more new cases means an increasing level of infectors around you, things tend to multiply. The increase could be due to more aggressive strains, but I think it's mainly due to carelessness. In the short term, the only thing that stops the growing uptrend is a change in behavior, that is, more social distancing and use of protection. Vaccinations help, but there are still a lot of un-vaccinated people.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 24, 2021 0:23:00 GMT
Unfortunately, currently, the individual average COVID infection/transfer rate is rising at a high enough rate (well over +5%) to more than offset the 5% decline per week in the non-immune (susceptible) population due to vaccinations. It appears that more personal interactions and reduced protection is significantly delaying the end of COVID.
One other thing that could hurt is if a significant percentage of people decide not to be vaccinated. That would not have been as much concern if people had continued their past distancing and protection for 2-3 months longer.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 18, 2021 14:21:26 GMT
As I’ve said before, I’m an investor and as a result I tend to spend more time than most thinking about the future.
In December 2020, I made a prediction that COVID cases would drop fast in 2021 and COVID would be pretty much gone by mid-year. I mentioned Carnival Cruise Lines as a company that would benefit. Cases did drop fast. Carnival stock took a while to get started but it is up 40%.
Now when I look ahead it seems even more likely that vaccinations will lead to the demise of COVID in the months ahead. The vaccines in the US appear to be working as hoped. The supplies are increasing. They appear to be safe and as a result most people should be willing to get vaccinated since COVID can kill.
However right now, (that’s where most people are focused), the COVID cases have leveled out as people have decided to take more risk. As a result over the next few weeks it’s possible COVID cases will actually increase and there may be several weeks when cases stay high.
But, it would seem very likely that a high percentage of Americans will be vaccinated by the end of the summer resulting in a rapid drop in cases. Unless a large number of people refuse to be vaccinated, COVID in the US should be defeated within a few months.
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