Wow Astromet, thats a strong statement on El Nino and La Nina for the next 8 years
Can you expand on your claim?
Icefisher's comment is correct. Good work by the way outlining it Icefisher.
To answer you Neil, ENSO is a big climate happening. It is considered to be a major climate coupled oscillation phenomenon, that is, the forced atmosphere drives the ocean, and so the forced ocean drives the atmosphere.
ENSO by means of a warm dominant-driver El Niño or a cold- dominant driver La Niña event does not happen every year. If it did, then there would simply be no reason to make such a big deal over it.
My use of the term ENSO is based on my own astrometeorological knowledge of these major events that comprise ENSO.
Icefisher is correct when he says, "I have noted Astromet's slightly unconventional use of the term ENSO in the past, basically referring to the combined La Nina and El Nino cycle as an ENSO event centered on the El Nino portion of the event. The O in ENSO is oscillation; so ENSO is not an event but an ongoing equatorial oscillation. El Ninos and La Ninos are events (warm and cool phases) within the oscillation."
I only use the term 'ENSO' for the conventional minds out there who continue to not understand how ENSO functions, nor how it is forecasted, or how the oscillation events of El Niño and La Niña form what we call ENSO.
There are different "event" oscillation types of ENSO, some are warmer than others, some colder, it depends on the solar condition and planetary configurations relative to Earth. It's the
oscillation that is key in understanding how the events of El Niño and/or La Nina come about.
You can have a strong El Niño that is either followed, or not followed by a weak La Niña, or have the reverse.
Most people don't understand what the term ENSO truly means, but simply it is a warming or cooling of the Earth's major oceanic/atmospheric engine, that is the Pacific Ocean.
The Sun and planets regulate the Earth's climate, including major climate events of El Niño or La Niña We are not in a perpetual major event like El Niño or La Niña every single year.
But oscillations are always there. They vary, but the strongest ones are those that reflect the major climate events of El Niño and La Niña.
These events happen only 10-11 years apart. I have forecasted the next ENSO to occur in 2021-2023. It will be a weak El Niño followed by a major La Niña. It's going to be a cold one.
We've had warm dominant El Niño events in the current cycle of solar-forced global warming. My advanced long-range climate forecast show that we will have dominant La Niña (cooling) events with weaker El Niño (warming) events in the decades ahead. That is what we are nearing now.
We will be in a new climate cycle by then, global cooling, which I have also forecasted to officially begin in 2017, but not to be truly felt until 2021-2023, when we see the dominant cold climate event of La Niña in the early decade of the 2020s.
An El Niño is characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5 C. The easterly trade winds
weaken as the Thermocline deepens and the cold water upwell decreases in the eastern Pacific. Convection shifts eastward over the central and/or eastern Pacific Ocean as the convection is suppressed over
the far western Pacific/ Indonesia.
La Niña is shown by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5 C. The easterly trade winds
strengthen as the Thermocline becomes more shallow with the cold water upwell increased in the eastern Pacific. Convection becomes stronger over the far the regions of the western Pacific Ocean to Indonesia but more suppressed in the central Pacific.
The standards to be classified a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña shows that those thresholds exceed a period of at least five (5) consecutive and overlapping three-month seasons.
Moreover, the CPC adds that when classifying El Niño or La Niña the criteria above must occur along with historically consistent atmospheric features. So for an ENSO to called, the temperature anomalies must persist for three consecutive months.
The conventional climatology centers that continue to use the major term ENSO to describe any small warming or cooling fluctuation event in the Pacific should know better, but they don't.
Then again, they have never forecasted an ENSO in advance as I have done. Not once have they forecasted El Niño or La Niña in advance.
Most of the current crop of climatologists still do not understand ENSO, what causes it (the Sun and planets) nor how to forecast it far in advance.
They depend on their faulty computer models to call any tiny fluctuation of warm water 'El Niño' or any tiny flux of cool water, 'La Niña.'
What they are trying to do is to become the first among their own peers to forecast a major ENSO. It is all done for ego among many of the current so-called 'forecasters' - and I remind all that not a single one of them has done this to date. Not one.
The reason is because they cannot forecast seasonally, much less make a major forecast call for ENSO that is accurate. To accomplish that you must do so astronomically. That is the only way. And, you cannot forecast advanced weather by taking the effects and calling them the 'causes.' That is ass backwards.
The causes are in space. That is where the Earth lives and the driver of our climate is the Sun. That is where all of our global warming and global cooling comes from.
Until NOAA/NWS and other international climate centers has forecasters who know this, and then in practice, in the real world, actually forecast, then, and only then will they be able to begin to forecast seasonal weather in advance - as well as major climate events like ENSO.
We have some years to the next ENSO. The last ENSO I forecasted to take place in 2009-2011 - that is an El Niño followed by La Niña (I did this back in 2006) will not happen again until 2021-2023.
