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Post by missouriboy on Oct 8, 2016 13:22:55 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Oct 8, 2016 19:46:57 GMT
Well that went far better than expected for Florida! It shows just how finely balanced things were with the eyewall a mere ten miles off the coast for sections of the transit. The 3 'jogs' we saw Matthew make as he traversed the Bahamas might well have saved both lives and Billions of dollars by keeping it those few miles out to Sea?
Not so good for Haiti with the NW tip , that took the brunt of the extreme weather, near totaled with the death toll for haiti now over 800 souls.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 8, 2016 20:32:27 GMT
Well that went far better than expected for Florida! It shows just how finely balanced things were with the eyewall a mere ten miles off the coast for sections of the transit. The 3 'jogs' we saw Matthew make as he traversed the Bahamas might well have saved both lives and Billions of dollars by keeping it those few miles out to Sea? Not so good for Haiti with the NW tip , that took the brunt of the extreme weather, near totaled with the death toll for haiti now over 800 souls. Haiti is ALWAYS an inch away from disaster.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 9, 2016 0:04:37 GMT
Good to hear you are OK Naut. Thanks Ratty Florida Power and Light (the local utility company) has restored power already to all but the most difficult customers They spent several billlion US dollars ensuring that recovery from power outages due storms was easier and cheaper. 2004 hurricanes 3 days or more, 2016 hurricane 1 day. _And_ we pay the least per KW than almost all utilities in the US. South Australia - are you listening?
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Post by icefisher on Oct 9, 2016 0:20:29 GMT
Well that went far better than expected for Florida! It shows just how finely balanced things were with the eyewall a mere ten miles off the coast for sections of the transit. The 3 'jogs' we saw Matthew make as he traversed the Bahamas might well have saved both lives and Billions of dollars by keeping it those few miles out to Sea? Not so good for Haiti with the NW tip , that took the brunt of the extreme weather, near totaled with the death toll for haiti now over 800 souls. Haiti is ALWAYS an inch away from disaster. Yep the big differences are: 1) An information network 2) Wise use of the information network; 3) An evacuation plan; 4) Evacuation means. 5) Code built housing versus a shack made out of whatever you can scrounge up. 6) Post wind emergency response Indeed Florida was lucky that this hurricane did not cross the shoreline especially during its Cat 4/3 stages. But even if it had the difference in casualties because of the above would be huge. The biggest factor is no doubt #5. Haitian shacks probably have a very low wind survival rate. Code built housing has a very high survival rate against winds as that is part of the design process. However, they are vulnerable to hurricane tidal surges where the housing survival rate really drops. Dangerous surge zones are quite small in relationship to wind hazard areas. This hurricane was interesting to monitor because they are bringing on line a good deal of surge information. Thats the remaining big risk from hurricanes in the US and that was proven by Katrina. If you stay home and your house survives you are probably going to survive. If your house does not survive your survival rate plummets. Not much chance of building codes rising to withstand a wind driven surf so increased building codes aren't the answer, instead its going to be in the realm of information and getting that to the people really vulnerable to tidal surges. That was apparent in just about every public announcement on the hurricane by officials. In Haiti they are still working on saving people from the winds.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 9, 2016 7:40:16 GMT
[ Snip ] South Australia - are you listening? They might be in private but - publicly - it's become a political slanging match.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 11, 2016 8:08:19 GMT
A bit interesting? Cooler (Not Warmer) Sea Surface Temps Produce More Frequent, Intense Hurricanes Sugi et al., 2015 More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate? “Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of 4K-cooler climate experiment. The global TC [tropical cyclone] frequency significantly increases in the 4K-cooler climate compared to the present climate. This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the 4K-warmer climate.“
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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2016 9:13:09 GMT
Are they really saying that whatever temp rise has occurred since the last major hurricane landed in US is reponsible from taking numbers from some to none?
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Post by Ratty on Oct 11, 2016 9:17:36 GMT
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Post by mondeoman on Oct 11, 2016 19:57:45 GMT
The knots they are a twistin.
Or
"oh what tangled webs we weave when first we set out to deceive"
Charlatans, the lot of em.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 11, 2016 20:24:58 GMT
A bit interesting? Cooler (Not Warmer) Sea Surface Temps Produce More Frequent, Intense Hurricanes Sugi et al., 2015 More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate? “Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of 4K-cooler climate experiment. The global TC [tropical cyclone] frequency significantly increases in the 4K-cooler climate compared to the present climate. This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the 4K-warmer climate.“ Of course it never occurs to these climate modelers that perhaps their models are _wrong_ Not at all when we use models built on the same assumptions but with reverse sign we get the reverse result So the models must be right - please send funding.....
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 11, 2016 20:35:35 GMT
The last article on your list references a new 270-year solar-driven pattern Major storm periods and climate forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene Jean-Philippe Degeaia, , , Benoît Devillersa, Laurent Dezileaub, Hamza Oueslatia, Guénaëlle Bonya Abstract Big storm events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. In the Western Mediterranean, where human societies colonized and occupied the coastal areas since the Ancient times, the variability of storm activity for the past three millennia was investigated with a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical study from a lagoonal sequence. Mappings of the geochemistry and magnetic susceptibility of detrital sources in the watershed of the lagoon and from the coastal barriers were undertaken in order to track the terrestrial or coastal/marine origin of sediments deposited into the lagoon. The multi-proxy analysis shows that coarser material, low magnetic susceptibility, and high strontium content characterize the sedimentological signature of the paleostorm levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. A comparison with North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean paleoclimate proxies shows that the phases of high storm activity occurred during cold periods, suggesting a climatically-controlled mechanism for the occurrence of these storm periods. Besides, an in-phase storm activity pattern is found between the Western Mediterranean and Northern Europe. Spectral analyses performed on the Sr content revealed a new 270-year solar-driven pattern of storm cyclicity. For the last 3000 years, this 270-year cycle defines a succession of ten major storm periods (SP) with a mean duration of 96 ± 54 yr. Periods of higher storm activity are recorded from >680 to 560 cal yr BC (SP10, end of the Iron Age Cold Period), from 140 to 820 cal yr AD (SP7 to SP5) with a climax of storminess between 400 and 800 cal yr AD (Dark Ages Cold Period), and from 1230 to >1800 cal yr AD (SP3 to SP1, Little Ice Age). Periods of low storm activity occurred from 560 cal yr BC to 140 cal yr AD (SP9 and SP8, Roman Warm Period) and from 820 to 1230 cal yr AD (SP4, Medieval Warm Period).
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 11, 2016 23:21:45 GMT
Storminess in general appears greater in colder periods. Of course we knew that. The following taken from "The Long Slow Thaw". “It was not only the cold that was a problem during the Little Ice Age. Throughout Europe, the years 1560-1600 were cooler and stormier, with late wine harvests and considerably stronger winds than those of the 20th Century. Storm activity increased by 85% in the second half of the 16th Century and the incidence of severe storms rose by 400%. “ judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 12, 2016 18:18:02 GMT
The cotton crop in areas of S. Georgia and the Carolinas has apparently been seriously 'whacked' by Matthew.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 12, 2016 22:38:44 GMT
Latest model forecasts for the PNW, I'm sure you all know which is the most accurate One extratropical solar minimum cyclone ... come another 54 years later???
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