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Post by nonentropic on Aug 2, 2017 19:38:35 GMT
I think Theo is talking about 3 or 4F average change so a daytime high that was to be 100F is now 97F so its still very hot.
This reflects the daily shift relative to the change in the annual average. you see the change easily where you live and in your daily numbers. you will see it in degree days over a continent etc.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 2, 2017 21:39:12 GMT
Thanks for the reply, I will read your reply with a clear mind tomorrow but right now I'm dead. Ok, so a fresh mind makes a big difference and my thoughts are thus. I am a skeptic as I've said before but I believe in being prudent. I believe people like Judith Curry to be sane, sensible and honest and Theo has yet to produce anything that marks me a believer in global cooling. From my time on this board I've come to view climate as a possibility, I remember my posting last week about the potential for heat in our area this week and now here it is this week and prevailing winds have changed bringing smoke from BC fires. cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/smoke-pushes-into-washington-state.htmlAs the smoke changed the forecast? I think so. They were talking about 100 degree days but now I dont' see it. Theo's timeline is fast approaching and a cold winter this next year won't convince me but a cold summer next year would much more sway me. Changes in spring and summer temperatures are what will make the difference (particularly for agriculture). We see from what historical data we have that these can occur very quickly, meaning 5 to 10 years. Outliers (extreme weather days) disproportionately affect mean temperatures. During rapid cooling (and heating) events it seems that the outliers change the most, with warm outliers disappearing and cooler outliers accruing, while the core temps drift downward in cooling periods. We seem to see the beginnings of such an event since 2012, with geomagnetic activity lower than at any time since ~1900 ... but we really don't have any detailed analogs for earlier, colder time periods. While 2017 'may be' the year that people point to for when the paradigm began to change, the real damage, if it comes, will probably continue to accrue for quite some time afterwards. Remember that forecasted 2022-23(?) La Nina, 5 years down the road. An aside. Points raised by the Chiefio really don't have anything to do with the current debate over whether a cold period is on the way. They have everything to do with the increasingly deplorable reputation of once respectable science institutions and their research. Let us avoid a repeat.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 7, 2017 17:07:50 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 7, 2017 18:34:18 GMT
The difficult questions first eh?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 7, 2017 20:47:06 GMT
For what it's worth, here in NOLA we've had two days in the last two weeks when our afternoon thunderstorms have gotten so severe that street flooding resulted. Yesterday, parts of the city got 9" of rain in three hours. You can see the results here. www.bing.com/videos/search?q=new+orleans+street+flooding&qpvt=new+orleans+street+flooding&FORM=VDRE. The head of the Sewerage and Water Board blamed the flooding on "climate change" and told the residents of New Orleans to get used to the "new normal." Those remarks haven't gone over too well. Truth is, as mighty as the pumping system is in New Orleans, it can only pump an inch of rain an hour out of the streets. The Gulf Coast of Louisiana is a swamp for a reason; we get over 80" of rain a year on average. There will be downpours that overwhelm the infrastructure. Whilst I don't buy the "climate change" is to blame meme, I'm resolved to the "get used to it." I've been here 44 years, and have seen half a dozen times when the rain has overwhelmed the pumps. Yesterday makes seven. That's once every six years. Not the end of the world, although it is a major inconvenience.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 7, 2017 21:08:46 GMT
I have to admit. It has been a little "weird" here lately as well. For me it still falls well within our range but just a tad more severe than "normal". Like phydeaux five hours east of here in New Orleans we have had afternoon thunderstorms that have dumped 3-5 inches of rain in a very short time accompanied by severe lightening and strong winds. It makes me wonder if perhaps this is the beginning of a climate cycle shift from warmer to colder? I am still skeptical but it is in the back of my mind. Good Morning America ran a story this morning about a sharp rise in the number of injuries due to turbulence on aircraft. So I quick internet search revealed there has been a huge increase in the number of injuries. It's food for thought but perhaps it is not global warming causing this as much as it is a shift back to cooling? www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/11/cost-bumpy-flights-air-turbulence-global-warming-united-airlines
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Post by acidohm on Aug 7, 2017 21:28:52 GMT
I've been saying for a while, all the colder winters in the last solar minimum in the uk were preceeded by higher intensity rainfall/lightning events.
Just lacked the time to put the data together that could give some context to the idea...
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 8, 2017 0:49:29 GMT
I've been saying for a while, all the colder winters in the last solar minimum in the uk were preceeded by higher intensity rainfall/lightning events. Just lacked the time to put the data together that could give some context to the idea... That seems to me to be right credible thinking ... just like the highly irregular highs and lows on an EKG just before that lower energy flat line.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 8, 2017 7:12:00 GMT
For sure....
If part of our atmosphere cools, sooner or later itll butt up to existing warmth, but now the temp difference is greater then before!
The jetstream being further south is also something i recall from '07 to '13 or so.
The heatwaves in southern Europe, as last year appear to be an accumulation of heat as it meets the jetstream barrier, rather then being able to spread further north and dissipate more evenly.
We are really pretty cool in N Europe right now. Its the high point of our summer, i often wear fleeces during the day:/
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 9, 2017 1:05:06 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 9, 2017 3:57:51 GMT
Suckers are stealing ND's rain! We are in a " flash" drought ya know?
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 9, 2017 6:30:26 GMT
Suckers are stealing ND's rain! We are in a " flash" drought ya know? Fracked by Mother Nature.
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Post by flearider on Aug 9, 2017 6:50:44 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Aug 9, 2017 8:13:21 GMT
It must all be so confusing for average joe in the street.
Huge heat and firestorms followed by huge thunderstorms/big hail/floods in the tropics.
Very subdued temps with heavy rain and, maybe 6 funnel clouds yesterday that ive seen photo'd in the uk, in the temperate region's.
Lots of people on uk fb weather pages asking "what the heck is going on...."
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 9, 2017 12:36:08 GMT
It must all be so confusing for average joe in the street. Huge heat and firestorms followed by huge thunderstorms/big hail/floods in the tropics. Very subdued temps with heavy rain and, maybe 6 funnel clouds yesterday that ive seen photo'd in the uk, in the temperate region's. Lots of people on uk fb weather pages asking "what the heck is going on...." A courageous few in positions of authority need to be getting out an alternative scientific message to the 'Day After Tomorrow'. That CO2 pigeon needs to be flamed at every opportunity. Indeed what would history have looked like if Churchill had constantly pointed north and misstated the enemy as the Laplanders? We have faith in the stoic common sense of the cousins. We of course are up to our armpits in CO2 gators as well.
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