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Post by acidohm on Jun 11, 2018 23:06:48 GMT
NOAA is Nino obsessed as ultimately they're warmists and desire a bit of heat.
Ever noticed how their models seem to always show a fairly rapid warming in the near future, even when the overall trend, even on the model itself is down??
They are useless and clueless at enso forecasting. Even in forecasting the effects of enso.
I feel your forecast is a valid one Duwayne. Good luck with it!
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Post by acidohm on Jun 11, 2018 23:09:42 GMT
Your also purposefully or not, basically mirroring theos forecast....
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ENSO 2018
Jun 14, 2018 21:21:22 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 14, 2018 21:21:22 GMT
That's a NOAA forecast.
They havn't got a clue....
They may end up being right...but it's not because of any precision techniques.
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ENSO 2018
Jun 15, 2018 5:02:44 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 15, 2018 5:02:44 GMT
Well I'm not picky...id say the same thing about met office and BOM.
History recently has shown forecasts based in a biased viewpoint leads to inaccurate even misleading information.
I don't disagree they take their jobs seriously, however I do feel anything they say is more likely to portray a warming influence which I also feel is incorrect.
Therefore it's not worth listening to them.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 15, 2018 7:41:34 GMT
Well I'm not picky...id say the same thing about met office and BOM. [ Snip ] So, you're an equal opportunity offender, eh Acid?
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ENSO 2018
Jun 15, 2018 9:37:06 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 15, 2018 9:37:06 GMT
Well I'm not picky...id say the same thing about met office and BOM. [ Snip ] So, you're an equal opportunity offender, eh Acid?Β Β I'm taking a leaf out of Billy Connelly's book, tar everyone with same brush you can't be deemed prejudice π
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 15, 2018 10:18:38 GMT
That's a NOAA forecast. They havn't got a clue.... They may end up being right...but it's not because of any precision techniques. I find your comment disingenuous, I feel the employees of the National Weather Service are professionals who take their jobs seriously. Having worked closely with forecasters in the field at UK airports and the UK Met Office, and forecasters in the Aviation Weather Service in KC and the National Weather Service and the NOAA/NASA researchers in places like Boulder, I have found that they tend to fall into two main camps. The forecasters that have worked with the users of their forecasts e.g. aircrew, fishermen, farmers etc., tend to be down to earth as accurate as they can be - have a mistrust of the 'computer model' - a quote: "Well that's what the computer says - but what is actually going to happen is....". There is something about having users who you know personally and will meet tomorrow after your screwed up forecast today - that concentrates the mind The research side weathermen who only talk to other weather researchers, are usually producing forecasts that will not be remembered by the time they are wrong - like el Nino forecasts or next hurricane season forecasts - which are also forecasts that nobody expects to be 'right' - have a different attitude more like academics. They will have that type of academic argument about the 'skill' of the forecast models where they will score a model highly because of some formula used but when you look at the result had it been an aviation or shipping forecast for today they wouldn't have wanted to show their face to the users and blather on about 'skill'. I suppose the weathermen self-select to some degree. If they are good close in forecasters they will work will the users directly - the less adept or more theoretical will gravitate to universities and research centers where their actual skill will not be questioned, more the number of cited research papers they have published. You get to know forecasters when you do long night watches with them wondering if it will snow enough to call out the snow teams, or the visibility will drop below minimums before the aircraft get back. Similarly, when you do extended research projects with them.
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ENSO 2018
Jun 15, 2018 12:21:48 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 15, 2018 12:21:48 GMT
This guy was a proper forecaster en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_StaggRear Admiral Fitzroy coined the term forecasting in the 1850's and was the 1st man in charge of what became the Met Office. Also selected Darwin to accompany him on the surveying trip of South america/establishment of accurate longitudinal measurements on a global voyage. An undervalued person in history....
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Post by icefisher on Jun 15, 2018 17:31:37 GMT
That's a NOAA forecast. They havn't got a clue.... They may end up being right...but it's not because of any precision techniques. I find your comment disingenuous, I feel the employees of the National Weather Service are professionals who take their jobs seriously. You are both right! I have worked with numerous federal employees over the past 30 years and agree about their neutrality and their professionalism. The Civil Service was created in the late 19th century to reduce rampant corruption and nepotism. It has been a tremendous success, not perfect but about as close to it as you are likely to get. The problem with ENSO predictions though is they aren't done by the Civil Service. They are done by a consortium of universities and government agencies around the world. NOAA has ostensibly a couple of votes by NWS and NASA of many and thats controlled by appointed office holders. One if not both of those votes is steered from GISS (James Hansen followed by Gavin Schmidt). GISS is a Columbia University program in association with NASA. The Institute is headed by Lisa Goddard. The Columbia University is the lead institution in IRI/CPC which issues the ENSO predictions. Its so politically infused that at least one civil service person operating a "hobby" blog on ENSO was shutdown by the Obama administration. Remember James Hansen saying that El Nino was the "new normal"? Most of these models run off the same GCMs used in IPCC climate predictions (at least the ocean portions of them), thus they are charged by CO2. The GCM based models run hot because ENSO is measured by an ocean sea surface temperature anomaly that is embedded with roughly 15 years of predicted warming not all seen yet at the surface but if heat is consistently being assumed to go in eventually heat must come out. Hansen's statement of the new normal was essentially an expression of a warming rate of at least .2 degrees C per decade creating an input into the anomaly somewhere between .3 and .35 degrees of warming on the hot side of the anomaly (30 year baseline updated once every 5 years) thus the true ENSO anomaly only need to be .2 to .15 to create El Nino conditions instead of the standard of .5 and Hansen has always considered those prediction to be the low end of the scale. How those assumptions get embedded in predictions of current ENSO SSTs (the anomalies of which have run far cooler than Hansen's predictions) I don't know but it seems a reasonable thought that it is affecting predictions which have run strongly to the warm side for years.
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ENSO 2018
Jun 15, 2018 19:19:24 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 15, 2018 19:19:24 GMT
Incredibly enlightening! Thankyou icefisher!!
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 16, 2018 17:24:59 GMT
Incredibly enlightening! Thankyou icefisher!! I will offer I know from my church a gentleman who is a NOAA employee, can't say I would recognize him and I haven't discussed the weather with him but I have tried with his wife who is a closed minded, biased, mean spirited, fascist, socialist know it all. C'mom, Mr. Code. Please tell us what you really think about her!
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ENSO 2018
Jun 16, 2018 18:28:25 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 16, 2018 18:28:25 GMT
Incredibly enlightening! Thankyou icefisher!! I will offer I know from my church a gentleman who is a NOAA employee, can't say I would recognize him and I haven't discussed the weather with him but I have tried with his wife who is a closed minded, biased, mean spirited, fascist, socialist know it all. Sounds like he must be a saint then to put up with that π
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 19, 2018 13:09:01 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 5, 2018 12:52:20 GMT
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ENSO 2018
Jul 5, 2018 13:52:46 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 5, 2018 13:52:46 GMT
Good fit on the face of it π€
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