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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 7, 2014 18:01:44 GMT
As a footnote, should the IPO be turning back to its 'surface warming phase' then the positive PDO will also remain. Both of these will also play there part in keeping atmospheric temps on the up and up. You're neglecting the AMO. Here's the AMO trend, back to the middle of the 19th C: As a comparison, here's the RSS global mean trend and the AMO trends going back to the 1990's (nice fit!!!): Now zoom out: So, GW having taken a look see at the above, what do you think is going to happen to the global RSS mean when the AMO goes negative??? Data: www.woodfortrees.org/
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 23, 2014 7:04:05 GMT
A new study has found that the Little Ice Age was global, rather than just affecting parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A new study has found that the Little Ice Age was global, rather than just affecting parts of the Northern Hemisphere. UK researchers show Little Ice Age was global, with implications for current Global Warming 18 November 2014 Gloucestershire, University of A team of UK researchers has shed new light on the climate of the Little Ice Age, and rekindled debate over the role of the sun in climate change. The new study, which involved detailed scientific examination of a peat bog in southern South America, indicates that the most extreme climate episodes of the Little Ice Age were felt not just in Europe and North America, which is well known, but apparently globally. The research has implications for current concerns over ‘Global Warming’. Climate sceptics and believers of Global Warming have long argued about whether the Little Ice Age (from c. early 15th to 19th Centuries) was global, its causes, and how much influence the sun has had on global climate, both during the Little Ice Age and in recent decades. This new study helps clarify those debates. The team of researchers, from the Universities of Gloucestershire, Aberdeen and Plymouth, conducted studies on past climate through detailed laboratory examination of peat from a bog near Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego. They used exactly the same laboratory methods as have been developed for peat bogs in Europe. Two principal techniques were used to reconstruct past climates over the past 3000 years: at close intervals throughout a vertical column of peat, the researchers investigated the degree of peat decomposition, which is directly related to climate, and also examined the peat matrix to reveal the changing amounts of different plants that previously grew on the bog. The data show that the most extreme cold phases of the Little Ice Age—in the mid-15th and then again in the early 18th centuries—were synchronous in Europe and South America. There is one stark difference: while in continental north-west Europe, bogs became wetter, in Tierra del Fuego, the bog became drier—in both cases probably a result of a dramatic equator-ward shift of moisture-bearing winds. These extreme times coincide with periods when it is known that the sun was unusually quiet. In the late 17th to mid-18th centuries it had very few sunspots—fewer even than during the run of recent cold winters in Europe, which other UK scientists have linked to a relatively quiet sun. Professor Frank Chambers, Head of the University of Gloucestershire’s Centre for Environmental Change and Quaternary Research, who led the writing of the Fast-Track Research Report, said: “Both sceptics and adherents of Global Warming might draw succour from this work. Our study is significant because, while there are various different estimates for the start and end of the Little Ice Age in different regions of the world, our data show that the most extreme phases occurred at the same time in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These extreme episodes were abrupt global events. They were probably related to sudden, equator-ward shifts of the Westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere, and the Atlantic depression tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. The same shifts seem to have happened abruptly before, such as c. 2800 years ago, when the same synchronous but opposite response is shown in bogs in Northwest Europe compared with southern South America. “It seems that the sun’s quiescence was responsible for the most extreme phases of the Little Ice Age, implying that solar variability sometimes plays a significant role in climate change. A change in solar activity may also, for example, have contributed to the post Little Ice Age rise in global temperatures in the first half of the 20th Century. However, solar variability alone cannot explain the post-1970 global temperature trends, especially the global temperature rise in the last three decades of the 20th Century, which has been attributed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” Professor Chambers concluded: “I must stress that our research findings are only interpretable for the period from 3000 years ago to the end of the Little Ice Age. That is the period upon which our research is focused. However, in light of our substantiation of the effects of ‘grand solar minima’ upon past global climates, it could be speculated that the current pausing of ‘Global Warming’, which is frequently referenced by those sceptical of climate projections by the IPCC, might relate at least in part to a countervailing effect of reduced solar activity, as shown in the recent sunspot cycle.” Paper link: www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=147372&CultureCode=en
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 19, 2014 16:55:33 GMT
Cutty: Thanks for the link share. The reason there is more sea ice around Antarctica is that it is cold. I know, that isn't rocket science, and a fact hard to obscure, but reality is a pregnant dog.....just sayin. Seeing as the Antarctic observations don't tally with the models, adjustments to the raw data must be imminent.
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 19, 2014 16:50:50 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 19, 2014 15:45:36 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 19, 2014 6:36:00 GMT
Bloomberg reports: “The snow in Siberia is piling up, and if it keeps coming, people in New York may have to bundle up this winter,” There’s a theory that the amount of snow covering Eurasia in October is an indication of how much icy air will sweep down from the Arctic in December and January, pouring over parts of North America, Europe and East Asia. Last year, the snow level across Eurasia was the fourth highest for the month in records going back to 1967. In January, frigid temperatures dubbed “the polar vortex” slid out of the Arctic to freeze large portions of the U.S. With the snow now piling up across Eurasia, will this winter be a grim reminder of last year’s? Bloomberg link: www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.htmlMultisensor snow/ice cover maps link: satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/northern_hemisphere_multisensor.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 12, 2014 14:47:29 GMT
This was posted on Twitter with the comment: Can anyone tell me what is 'green' about these things? The colour of the subsidy money?
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 8, 2014 19:06:38 GMT
They should have picked a star a little less influential to our planet, then when they get their forecasting / modeling completely wrong very few if any would notice...
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 1, 2014 13:38:06 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if al qaeda / ISIS attempt to place infected operatives in major western capitals. Get the infected operatives to ride the subways / underground / metros then publicise the stunt - it may not by an effective mode of transmission, but imagine the panic / disruption that would ensue.
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 1, 2014 5:01:16 GMT
The BBC reports: The first case of the deadly Ebola virus diagnosed on US soil has been confirmed in Dallas, Texas. Officials at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital say the unidentified patient is being kept in isolation. The man is thought to have contracted the virus in Liberia before travelling to the US nearly two weeks ago. More than 3,000 people have already died of Ebola in West Africa and a small number of US aid workers have recovered after being flown to the US. "An individual travelling from Liberia has been diagnosed with Ebola in the United States," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Thomas Frieden told reporters on Tuesday. According to Mr Frieden, the unnamed patient left Liberia on 19 September and arrived in the US the next day to visit relatives, without displaying any symptoms of the virus. A month after returning to the US, Ms Writebol was well enough to speak to reporters Symptoms of the virus became apparent on 24 September, and on 28 September he was admitted to a Texas hospital and put in isolation. A hospital official told reporters on Tuesday the facility already had procedures in place to deal with any such potential cases. Preliminary information indicates the unnamed patient was not involved in treating Ebola-infected patients while in Liberia. Health officials are working to identify all people who came into contact with the unnamed patient while he was infectious. Those people will then be monitored for 21 days to see if an Ebola-related fever develops. According to Mr Frieden, it is possible a family member who came in direct contact with the patient may develop Ebola in the coming weeks. But "the bottom line here is I have no doubt that we will control this importation, this case of Ebola, so it does not spread widely in this country," he added. "We will stop it here." The World Health Organization (WHO) says more than 3,000 people have died of the virus so far, mostly in Liberia. Earlier on Tuesday, the CDC said the Ebola virus seemed to be contained in Nigeria and Senegal, with no new cases reported there for almost a month. It is the world's most deadly outbreak of the virus. Link: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29437070
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 28, 2014 7:10:44 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 27, 2014 12:56:35 GMT
Le Figaro reports that Sulphur pollution has been detected in northern France. Measuring station in the Île-de-France identifies “very unusual origin from heavy pollution with sulfur and sulfates.” Between Monday night and Wednesday, the dust emitted by the volcano one Icelandic Holuhraun, linked to the volcanic system Bardarbunga 2 , caused a pollution 3 very unusual air over much of northern France, warned Airparif, the 'Ile association monitoring air quality. According to the Icelandic Environment Agency, the volcano Holuhraun emits up to 60,000 tons of SO2 per day 4 , well above all pollution SO2 emitted by transport, energy, home heating in the whole of Europe, which is an average of 14,000 tonnes per day. The alert was given in France by one of the instruments of Atmospheric Sciences Laboratory analysis of climate and environment (LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ) operated by CEA Orme des Wild cherry. "On Monday 22 evening, I found by checking the instruments there was a high level of fine particles, and that they were not as sulfates, which normally never happens," says Jean by phone Sciare, aerosol specialist at LSCE. More polluting volcano that all of Europe "Normally, sulfates are emitted by burning coal in Eastern Europe, and when the clouds come to us they are mixed with other pollutants. But then, there were only sulfates. By calling colleagues Ineris, they learned that they had measured their side peak SO2 (sulfur dioxide) in Picardie, Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Champagne-Ardenne. When I heard that, I doubted that I was in the presence of pollution from a volcanic eruption. " By tracing a posteriori trajectories of air masses which then flew over France, the researcher realized that the cloud flew over Iceland. "I was the first to raise the alarm when the air masses containing volcanic dust as they flew over the North Sea, avoiding Britain, made ??landfall in northern France and are descended to the center of France before returning to the Atlantic, "says Jean Sciare. The last peak pollution fine sulfate particles was recorded Wednesday in the day but Airparif will remain vigilant, because this "volcanic pollution adds to pollution sources related to human activities," said the association in a statement 5 . Link: www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/2014/09/25/01008-20140925ARTFIG00256-pollution-des-poussieres-du-volcan-islandais-au-dessus-de-la-france.php
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 24, 2014 7:57:55 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 23, 2014 7:19:46 GMT
It would appear that NOAA has given up being objective & scientific because the science doesn't agree with their political position. This: has become: Cutty, what's the source of the first graph? Ratty, The graph was copied from Jo Nova's blog, it was created by David Lappi (geologist from Alaska) the data being from the Gisp2 dataset. Link: joannenova.com.au/2010/02/the-big-picture-65-million-years-of-temperature-swings/
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 22, 2014 5:40:04 GMT
Parts of eastern Antarctica are melting at significantly lower rates than current models predict. A team of scientists have drilled holes through an Antarctic ice shelf, the Fimbul Ice Shelf, to gather the first direct measurements regarding melting of the shelf’s underside. A group of elephant seals, outfitted with sensors that measure salinity, temperature, and depth sensors added fundamental information to the scientists’ data set, which led the researchers to conclude that parts of eastern Antarctica are melting at significantly lower rates than current models predict. “It has been unclear, until now, how much warm deep water rises below the Fimbul Ice shelf, and previous ocean models, focusing on the circulation below the Fimbul Ice Shelf, have predicted temperatures and melt rates that are too high, suggesting a significant mass loss in this region that is actually not taking place as fast as previously thought,” said lead author of the study and PhD student at the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Tore Hattermann. Link: news.agu.org/press-release/elephant-seals-help-uncover-slower-than-expected-antarctic-melting/
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